NMS cutoff predictions for class of 2018

@suzy100, I am very curious about that as well. What data? I mean…that guy literally put an “edit” on all of his former answers basically adding a disclaimer that he no longer recommends looking at last year’s scores for guidance and assuring that this year’s scores will go way up.

@traveler98, That is the million dollar question. I would love if someone could tell us why it takes so long.

@DoingOurBest

I know this is hard to accept, but it happens every year. Especially now that they have changed the PSAT so that kids with the same total score have a different SI. Try living in DC/NJ/MA with a 222 cutoff. My son’s classmate had a 1480 total score on PSAT, and so did he. He had a 221 SI (1 question would have made the difference to a 222) and the other student with the same total score had a 222. The other student made it and he did not. The other student isn’t even applying to schools that offer large scholarships.

To everyone thinking the cutoff score (or any state score) is going to drop by many points - think again. Forget any PSAT cutoffs you’ve seen before last years - they are not on the same scale - and do not apply. At BEST (very best) the commended could go down 2 points and individual state scores down 2 points. But I doubt any score will move more than 1 point in either direction. They have compressed the total score from 240 to 228 so there is going to be less movement than in years past. Trust college compass - they have done an amazing job at figuring out the details of this test and scoring.

Sure hope you’re right about that!

@suzyQ7, I hope you are right in terms of not seeing a big increase.

I guess some people have concerns about this being a “rebound” year. If we only really have last year’s data to go on, which includes millions of students taking a new test vs. this year when they all had prep material, it could be argued that we see a score inflation and subsequent rise in cutoffs. I sure hope not though!

You’d think College Board would anticipate students being more prepared for the test and would curve it appropriately. Yesterday on this board, someone noted that looking at CB’s percentiles for 2015 and 2016, overall scores seem to be down a smidge.

Is it likely that a 220 will qualify for illinois? Apparently last year the cutoff was 219

I mentioned this over in the Class of 2018 parent thread, but my son reported back that his cohort at school had mixed results yesterday. Their class has about 650 kids. He said (of what he heard) that there were about 4 or so kids higher than his 223, one the same, and then several kids he would have expected to have very high scores had totals in the 1100-1300 range. He said he was really surprised by some of them that didn’t score well.

So basically a mixed bag of scores from a very high-achieving group. Gives me a little hope that his 223 will hold up. I’m hoping that the website posted above with its dire warnings doesn’t mean our state will go from a 220-224. That would be so disappointing!

I am hanging on to what @ShrimpBurrito said in post #305, and trying to remember that the vast majority of test takers do absolutely no prep at all.

DS is is sitting exactly 1 point below last year’s state cutoff. He’s lopsided in the wrong direction (perfect math, not so perfect reading and writing). He’s #3 out of 6 kids, and planning to go to a school that gives a huge NMF scholarship, which would really help (2 of his siblings are still in college).

It’s gonna really hurt if he misses it by 1 point. and it’s gonna be a loooooooong 9 months.

Well I’m trying to find 2015 percentiles so I can compare numbers myself but I’m not having much luck. Do we even know what CB is basing these percentiles on? I’m not sure this method is going to help.

Yes, where is this data that was analyzed? Agreed, it will be a long 9 months for many of us…

Here is data for 2016, from CB. Go to page 8.

https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/pdf/psat-nmsqt-understanding-scores-2016.pdf

It says that the User Group Percentiles (the ones that matter) “are based on the actual performance of test takers on the PSAT/NMSQT and PSAT 10 administered in 2015-16.”

@alltoomuch My kids both jumped a similar amount over that same period of time. They did both take practice tests at a test prep location and use various sources to learn strategy during part of their summers. But be aware that even so it may still take a little bit of luck on the testing day conditions, the test you get, how well rested etc. you are. DS 2 years ago hit a 220 cutoff of the old form right on the nose when our state cutoff went up again. DD may have missed this year’s by one point. So the effort mostly seems worth it because it also preps for the SAT.

The percentiles from last year were GARBAGE - totally inflated. For a detailed description on how we know this, see Compass Prep’s detailed analysis here:

http://241nkd2yuifs2cob542atybb.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Problems-with-the-New-PSAT-Compass-1-27-16.pdf

My thought is that last year they made the test way too easy - thus the panic, date release changes, and inconsistencies on the CB reports last year. They had nothing to go by with the new PSAT test - the PSAT last year was the FIRST sitting of the new SAT style administered by the college board. Since then there have been 4 or 5 SAT sittings and an additional PSAT sitting. They should have enough information to make the test hard enough to differentiate at the top for high scoring students. I don’t actually know if that is the case since I’ve moved on from the SAT, but hopefully they have learned from last year’s PSAT debacle and made the SAT/PSAT harder.

Thank you @ollie113. Those are all good points! I knew NM was above 99% but I didn’t know how much.

@doingourbest I know what you mean! My DD has a 1440 with a 690 in math, and even though she has perfect Reading and missed only one Writing her score is 750 math and a total index score of 219 - likely one or two points too low for Texas. It’s frustrating at the top it is so tight.

@suzyQ7 Thanks for the link.

And now, have you all seen the latest reuters article about CB’s rushed changes to the SAT/PSAT? What. A. Mess.

http://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/college-sat-coleman/

There is so much in that ^^ story that makes me angry, I don’t know where to begin. And at it’s core (pun intended), what’s it all about? MONEY. I wish we could escape the Collegeboard.

@TexasMomE I also only had one wrong on writing and perfect reading and I got a 760. What day did she take the test? I took mine on the regular Wednesday test date.

From the article

Grasping at straws here, but since TX is NOT a common core state maybe the cut off will not go up by much;-)