NMS cutoff predictions for class of 2018

I’m in Michigan. What are the thoughts as 216 for a qualifying score there?

Michigan’s cutoff was 216 last year. So you will be right there. Good luck. Great score in any event.

http://www.■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/national-merit-semifinalist-cutoffs/

Thanks. Hope it does not change!

What is the common prediction for Texas in light of new scores? Is it going to increase several or stay within plus minus 1 point?

When should we expect projected cutoffs for semifinalists, and how often does the cutoff go down?

Texas has historically been in that upper 2nd tier. The top tier inched down, you and states such as NY/CT stayed the same, while the lower 2nd tier inched up. I would guess you’d stay within one point. TX pushing to 222 seems statistically unlikely when considering it would likely nudge NJ/MA/VA/DC/CA/MD back to the 223-225 range. That said, TX did have uniquely volatile three and four point jumps within the last decade. Lack of NMSC transparency makes number crunching an exercise in guesswork.

I don’t think there will be new projections for this year. We had them for last year because the test/scoring was new. Had concordance tables and percentiles that people were trying to use to reconcile to what the new cutoffs would be. The cutoffs from some states did vary from year to year under the old test. Point up one year and a point down the next. Other states seem to have the same cutoff year after year under the old test.

Not sure we shouldn’t expect to see the same going forward. I would expect the consistent states to remain consistent. And there will be fewer states with cutoffs that vary as much from year to year. There was compression across the states. Lower cutoff states saw higher cutoffs under the new test. Higher cutoff states saw slightly lower cutoffs under the new test. But ultimately, only time will tell once there are multiple classes in each state taking the new test.

Our GCs have no interest in returning calls or emails of students or parents or seeing them. I’m glad my son didn’t bother but some of his friends did and felt shunned. It’s not like GCs can’t understand anxiety and anticipation of students, either they are very busy or apathetic.

DS said he talked to his GC this am and she said they would post PSAT scores on Naviance on FRIDAY but that SI scores would not be available until Monday - gee that’s helpful - NOT!

@3scoutsmom Tell me about it. It seems these people were never students themselves.

And yet it’s possible that the Aug/Sept numbers will appear volatile because of a second year correction. The RI Class of '10 is a lesson some families will never forget.

A 225 should be solid everywhere, correct?

Yes, it better be!

My son got 223 for index. We live in NJ and hopefully he could make the cutoff.

Do we know the GC’s have the SI’s? Has any GC given an actual SI or are they giving the total score and parents are backing into SI’s.

The way last year’s PSAT show up in Naviance it lists the individual section scores so, if you have the section scores you can figure out the SI.

I’m still ticked that our GC’s have the scores but won’t release them on Naviance until Friday (very likely in the afternoon after school!) DS thinks that this is their way of discouraging kids from ‘comparing scores’ I think the head GS is on a power trip!

My D18 received a printout authored and designed by The College Board that lists total score and the scores for math and ebrw, as well as her sophomore year score. It’s an html document, with boxes and what look to be hypertext links that say “Report Details” and “Download Student PDF Report”. There’s no SI on the single page, but it was easily calculated. We’re in a rural district that would typically have the least access for anything if money is involved. It’s safe to say your GC has the same info or more. Our D was the only kid of ~100 to request a score. The office secretary initially seemed confused at her request, but the GC was awesome.

@scoutsmom, isn’t that weird? Our district always sends report cards home on Fridays, or the last day before a break. It gives the sense of teachers/admin scurrying for the hills while shite hits the fan in households. Eh, I suppose it’s prudent for a district that basically shuts down the first week of deer season.

@gettingschooled - good question. After figuring out D18’s range of possible scores based on the total score given to her, I got a little greedy and asked her to go back the next day and try to coax her GC (who likes her) into giving her at least one other piece of the puzzle like the math score so that we could figure the whole thing out.

Her GC was more than accommodating & she gave D everything on her list: which included the overall score, the EBRW score, the math score, and YES - the SI. It was all on her list!

I’m assuming (guessing) that the GC’s are instructed to not give this info out until the results come out on Dec 12th, and that some GC’s stick to the letter of the law, while others give out varying amounts of info depending on how they feel about bending the rules a bit.

@gettingschooled GCs have the SIs. DS sent me a pic of the report she showed him yesterday. It looks like the full report I saw last year when my son took it as a sophomore. SI was at the top of the second page I believe.

I think we may have beat the tidal wave. Once kids found out my DS had his score, they all tried to get theirs and the GCs made them wait and set up a time to meet.

There isn’t a lot of anticipation at our school fortunately or unfortunately. They never have more than 1 NMF each year, and many years no one makes it.