NMS cutoff predictions for class of 2018

Congratulations to Mnacttutor and all those who made it!!! For those who did not make it, you are great too! This is just a one test in many you went through.

@DavidPuddy , thanks. Actually, it is a bit of a relief, because the kid is interested in SLACs, which are not merit-aid based, and this takes the pressure off of me to “push” him towards considering a school he was not that interested in just for NMF money. Still, missing the cut does sting, just a little.

Silver lining and all that, @tandrsmom. Hopefully you’ll stick around - join us in the 2018 Parents Thread.

Well if I believe the CA reported here at at Art’s blog, my DS is in at 222. Yippee. Won’t celebrate too much (or even tell DS) till the envelope arrives… congrats to those who did make it and my sympathies for those who didn’t. I tried not to obsess or overvalue this thing, and realize it’s a pretty “artificial” thing, but nonetheless as a parent makes me happy/proud and I can put some specific $$ value on all the work that got him this far. Now not sure we’ll see any of that $$ value as real help directly with college costs…we’ll have to wait and see… :sunglasses:

I’ll look for that page. A weird thing about Oregon is that, at least in my district, which is the largest one in the state (Portland Public Schools), all students are required to take the PSAT as sophomores - a year when it does not count towards NMS. So the students who take the test as juniors are the ones who have chosen to because they already know they have a chance of making it into NMSF. I think this skews the overall score higher for our state, because the scores of the test takers are going to all be on the higher end to begin with…

Anyone have any news from New Mexico?

@tandrsmom

http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/class-20xx-community/1599311-parents-of-the-hs-class-of-2018.html#latest

Please join us!

@TexanIndian, I think you might be referring to @3scoutsmom’s post? In any case, yes, it’s possible that C’s can keep an NMSF from advancing to NMF. In some cases a single C has been enough to keep the student from advancing. Still, out of 16k NMSF there will be 15k finalists so most will move on.

SAT scores that confirm the PSAT score will probably be a range similar to the qualifying scores - and should be the same for everybody. They won’t disqualify the kid with a perfect selection index (228) who only gets 750750or a 1500 on the SAT, but accept the one who qualifies with a 219 index and 720/720. If the student bombs the SAT and gets a score nowhere near the same range, which suggests they crammed for the PSAT and didn’t actually learn anything, then they won’t make finalist. Most finalists who are cut don’t make it because of poor grades - and even that may be tempered by the rigor of that class and the transcript in general (a C in AP Calculus as a sophomore will be treated differently than a C in an honors or general level class).

@CTScoutmom can you site a source for this? I been over the NM web site with a fine tooth comb and they are intentionally vague about grades, just a blanket statement about

There have been posts on CC in the past where one semester C knocked someone out in one state but not in another. They are trying to hit a specific number per state and subtracting the kids that don’t bother submitting their app or taking the SAT or have behavior issues, after the PSAT SI cut off they use grades to whittle it down to that target number.

Anecdotal evidence, when my oldest was a senior. One student who had that C in Calculus having taken it as an AP class as a Sophomore, that was not eliminated, another that was eliminated with no C’s, but several B-. Obviously the first ones eliminated will be those who don’t complete the applications, or neglect to take the SAT.

Do we actually know that NMSC does target the number of finalists by state? Can’t the discrepancy in making finalist with a C or two on your transcript have more to do with how that grade is reported? If NMSC looks at yearly average grades and you have a C one semester and an A or B the next, your average grade as reported wont be a C. It may be that you need to have consistently poor performance in a subject area to get dinged from Finalist. Of course, they don’t really explain their decisions so it’s anyone’s guess.

is a 1470 on SAT with 790 math 710 reading enough for Finalist?

My bad, 760 math, 710 reading? ^^

Is anyone aware of a place for homeschool parents to discuss the particular challenges we face in this process (thinking specifically of how to determine which of our courses are challenging enough to earn an honors distinction and which don’t and/or how critical that even is for them)?

Yes, it’s a know published fact that there is set number of NMF and that there is a formula based on the number of students that graduate the prior year to get the number for each state. What is not known is exactly how they figure “high academic standards” this gives them a lot of wiggle room to make it to that number. For us (thankfully) it’s not a concern but I do wish the they were more transparent in this area.

@kjake2000 – the SI number is what’s important for NMSF. SI = EBRW / 5 + Math / 10, so your SI is 218.

@kjake2000 that is a 218 SI. Well above 211 commended level, so yes should be good enough.

Crazy that we haven’t heard from NY.

There are about 30 “states” we have not heard from. NY is just one of them.