NMS cutoff predictions for class of 2018

UT cutoff 218 per Art’s comments.

Just got a call from our principal. 220 in CT is NOT National merit so I think that confirms CT at 221 and above. Good luck to everyone else.

@LMHS73 My S18 has a C from sophomore year in an AP class. Otherwise mostly As and some Bs at an extremely rigorous private school. It never crossed my mind that the C could hurt him in advancing to the finalist stage (mostly b/c I hadn’t researched it). But I can understand how anxious that makes a parent.

Congrats on the confirmation, @LOUKYDAD - I think your new name should be “Big Lou Ky Dad”!! haha. Great news!

Re: TX - yep! The (now erroneous) report of 220 came from over there, if I recall, so someone got it wrong somehow. Not sure how, but my guess is they didn’t know their own SI.

I’m the one who repeated it over here, so I offer my apologies to anyone who got their hopes up and then had them dashed.

Okay I am so confused - on Art’s page it says Ohio = 218, but I have only seen reports that 219 made it and 217 did not. Wouldn’t that mean it could still be that the cutoff is 218 OR 219? Of course we are RIGHT there at the one number we don’t know for sure lol!

@bradsmom, Art must have just corrected it. It shows 218 or 219 now. I can’t believe we can’t pin this down! Fingers crossed for you.

(My apologies if the following information has already been shared and digested; it is new to me.)

Regarding the confirming SAT score for NMSF:
Per a phone chat with a NMSC rep, the confirming SAT Selection Index score (right now) is 211 or above. The rep stressed that at this time, NMSC could not guarantee SAT Selection Index scores below 211 would be considered “confirming SAT scores” for the NM process.

I hope this post makes sense. I confused myself typing it.

yes @bradsmom, I pointed out to him that I didn’t think there was enough information to say the cutoff was 218. I think it’s because he’s travelling. I also didn’t want you to get excited too early.

@contdes; yeah that whole “C” grade thing comes up each and every year - usually after folks pass the NMSF hurdle and look forward to the final steps required to make NMF. It makes for interesting reading, except for when you’re the worried parent wondering if your kid with a “C” or two will make it through. I went through this very thing one time before with S15 who thankfully made it through to NMF with one of those dreaded “Cs” on his transcript.

I hope my comment #1379 didn’t come off as sounding too cocky. I made that “likely” prediction based on 3 years of reading posts and opinions about the whole “C” grade thing. But like I said, having a contingency plan is still the smart bet - because you never know where the tide might turn from one year to the next.

217 made it in Missouri. =-)

That is so weird. I called a week or two ago and was told it would be “several points below” the Commended Cutoff.

And THIS is why I don’t necessarily trust them when I call and they assure me that D is eligible (despite an initial coding error from her school which said she was not a HS student). Sigh

@Kayak24 when I spoke with the NMSC rep today, the only thing she sounded certain of was there was no guarantee at this point that a confirming SAT Selection Index less than 211 would be accepted. I did get the impression information was still unfolding on this topic.
The rep was super-nice and patient. I can only imagine the calls the Scholarship people get.

When 2015 daughter went through this, the confirming SAT score was the four-digit number. Now it’s the three-digit Selection Index from the SAT subscores.
I am beginning to loathe acronyms, by the way.

Thanks @HB_Dad - I didn’t want to get too excited if there was still a possibility either! Thanks:)

Omg @bradsmom you are really going through the ringer. Where are these letters from our schools!

I know @shelleee !!! It’s driving me crazy! Thing is - the GC told us today the the principal has the info, is not going to wait until the press release date…but is apparently in no hurry and will let them know “by the end of the week!” UGH!

Is the 1% that make NM based on the number of kids graduating in each state? I always thought it was the top 1% of test takers.

@yellowgranite56, the ~50k students who make Commended, NMSF and NMF represent the top scores out of those eligible for that year’s NM competition. About 1.6 million students are eligible each year for the competition. The 16k NMSF are not the seriatim top 16k scorers; rather NMSC distributes NMSF around the country according to the population of graduating high school seniors.

Comment on Art’s blog states 217 did not make it in Indiana. If there are any fellow Hoosiers out there, please update us!