@LMC9902 I would not extrapolate just yet from your early read at Oberlin. I imagine that the merit bar is set higher in the ED round; it may be lower for RD. I would encourage your child to apply RD and see what happens. You may be pleasantly surprised, come March.
Last year, I was looking at outcomes here on CC and there was no logical way to analyze them. Why does one kid get substantial merit from Kenyon but is waitlisted at Grinnell? Gets money from Mac but not Oberlin? Holistic review is just that - something about your child’s file may resonate with one admissions committee but not another to push it into merit scholarship contention.
That said, I think that applying to a range of schools is prudent. Right now, Oberlin also is my D’s top choice. But admissions are unpredictable. She has also applied to Wooster, St. Olaf and Dickinson, where her stats put her at a higher % point. She has found much to admire at those schools as well and if she ends up at one of them, she is confident that she will have a good experience. The state flagship and a regional financial safety are also in the mix, just to keep all options open.
Good luck!