The thing is many NPCs don’t include merit aid/discounting. This is one reason why those who are merit hunting have to apply to relatively more schools…one doesn’t know ahead of time how much merit/discount they might get.
Some non-meet-full need schools that meet an average 90% of need (or whatever number you pick), do meet full need for some students…the ones they really want. One can’t know that unless they apply, hence the need to cast a wide net and make sure to apply to a level of schools where the student’s stats are above the 75%ile.