This is a business decision. The businessmen aren’t looking to put one over on Notre Dame, only the fans are. Obviously every school is looking to advance their own interests. You have referred a couple times to enriching Notre Dame. They are not doing Notre Dame a favor by including them. They are doing themselves a favor. Excluding Notre Dame does not help anyone’s interest because it is shutting out a partner that brings unparalleled interest and with it $$$. I agree with you that Notre Dame may have to give up its independence, but they will most certainly not be excluded from any realignment.
As the SEC & the Big 10 move to mega-conference status of 18 to 24 teams, playing Notre Dame in football would be against their interest as it enriches Notre Dame football by legitimizing it and by making ND relevant.
Why should the top teams in any mega-conference risk losing to Notre Dame and thereby helping an independent rise in the national rankings and move closer to a lucrative playoff bowl berth ?
Conferences want to enrich their own members.
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Currently the Big 10 has 14 football members divided into two 7 team divisions.
Two days ago, the Pac 12 commissioner commented on re-examining conference expansion.
Big 10 membership is far more lucrative than is Pac 12 membership.
Big 10 wants member schools to be in the AAU (academic research related).
The Pac 12 has at least seven (7) AAU member schools ( Univ.of Washington,Univ.of Oregon, Colorado, Stanford, UCLA, UCal-Berkeley, & USC). The University of Utah and the University of Arizona are also AAU members.
Any travel or distance concerns could be minimized by the Big 10 adding a third 7 team division of schools in the far west.
A 21 school football conference would likely lead to more intra-conference playoff games to determine the conference champion & to help rank schools within the conference for playoff bowl purposes.
More intra-conference games means fewer non-conference games which is not good for Notre Dame. Any non-conference opponent will most likely be a warm-up against a non-threatening team,not a game against a potential national powerhouse team.
Because the Pac 12 actually has 9 AAU member schools, a Pac 12 & Big 10 merger of AAU member schools plus former AAU member Nebraska could result in three 8 team divisions or four 6 team divisions.
P.S. TV/media rights contracts for both the Big 10 and the Pac 12 are soon expiring. A coast-to-coast conference consisting of a substantial number of highly ranked football teams could demand record shattering compensation.
Again, good for the Big 10, Pac 12, SEC,and bad for any remaining independents.
FWIW Many high level Big 10 executives / officials have solid connections to Notre Dame which could, presumably, facilitate exploratory discussions. The money is almost certainly going to exceed prior contracts by a substantial amount. (Thanks in part to the increase viewing /watching habits developed due to quarantining due to Covid-19.)
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Spot on post.
If the B1G absorbed the cream of the AAU members of the PAC, then they could have 3 or 4 divisions, a 4 team playoff ending at the Rose Bowl on Jan 1, and then challenge whoever to play their champion 2 weeks later at the Vegas Stadium. ND would be foolish not to join the B1G at that juncture.
And…if Clemson and FSU leave the ACC, then the fate of UVa and UNC as AAU member flagships leaves their potential B1G membership in the open.
The AAU schools will be legitimate academic and athletic powerhouses. The $EC schools, will be, football schools.
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You are trying to predict the unpredictable. But thats impossible. No way at this point to know what the next domino to fall will be and the resulting 10 dominoes to fall. Can’t be done.
From the ND stand point though, I expect they will be fine. There are a group a schools who have power and ND is one of them. Lesser teams in the power conferences are much more at risk. Rest of the Big 12 isn’t in a great spot right now. Bottom teams of Big 10, Pac 12, ACC and even the SEC are at risk of their conference falls apart. There are a number of schools that based on brand, name, history, etc. will be fine. ND is one of those (and this from someone who roots for the Domers to lose every game they play in every sport–LOL).
Technically, of the Top 10 schools in the 2021 Directors Cup standings in 2021, the SEC had five (5) of them, incorporating UT, which finished #1 this year. So, they’re more than just football schools. They dominate in many college sports.
https://s3.amazonaws.com/nacda.com/documents/2021/7/1/July2OverallDI.pdf
But first, they would have to break their contract with the ACC.
I’m always amazed at the amount of enthusiasm that college football generates. The purpose of college is to develop the intellect (brain). We now know without a doubt that playing full contact football puts players at risk for chronic traumatic encephalopathy. We just added Greg Clark to the list of former NFL stars who died prematurely (age 49) with CTE. Clark was a scholar athlete at Stanford. His intellect had as much potential to be developed as his athletic skills, but CTE from his long football career eliminated that possibility.
It seems to me that football is antithetical to the mission of any academic institution - either high school or college - and should be abandoned as an extracurricular. Colleges and universities should stop promoting something that is so opposite to their very purpose for existing.
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I often attend Stanford football games. Besides the Cal-Stanford game in 2019, the ND football game at Stanford, the last football game of the 2019 season (played on 11/30/2019), was the 2nd most popular football on the Stanford schedule.
ND drives their opponent’s home ticket sales.
The school so many love to hate. 
Off topic post, but I’ll respond.
Then you also have to get rid of women’s sports, especially women’s soccer:
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I agree, Stanford. 
(I actually root for ND, when they play Stanford)
If FSU and Clemson have bolted, there won’t be an ACC left where football is concerned.
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True, but they’d still have a darn good b-ball conference still and they could grab West Virginia and another good, but not great, football school, like OSU or maybe Coastal Carolina, or a storied b-ball school like Kansas.
I’m all fir getting rid of any sport that results in too many permanent disabling injuries and premature death for its participants.
The research in CTE in football hasn’t identified isolated concussions as the cause. What they have identified us a Hugh frequency of repeated sub-concussive episodes over the course of a long season. They compared it to shaken baby syndrome. This is why linemen have CTE in high numbers rather than more high profile QBs and wide receivers who may be vulnerable to the occasional concussion. Not that concussions in any number are a good or desirable thing.
For some of their opponents. Ohio State isn’t looking for ticket sales in 2022. Michigan isn’t either. Or Alabama. USC didn’t (at least at one time). And other schools drive attendance for road games as well. Just need large alumni base and/or alums that travel well.
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I think that the strength of Notre Dame is that the fan base is large and spread across the nation.
Notre Dame attracts TV viewers.
I’ll address these two.
Ohio State isn’t looking for ticket sales? You must have missed this recent (7/21/2021) news story about OSU ticket sales:
As for Michigan, I attended the ND-Michigan game on 10/26/2019 in A2, where Michigan beat ND 45-14 in the monsoon-like rain. Everywhere around me there were ND fans. Everywhere! The ND fans that surrounded my wife and I were all from the Chicago area.
ND drives ticket sales almost everywhere. Alabama has no professional football team, so maybe they wouldn’t need ND to help their ticket sales, but my guess, even if it didn’t, ND would help increase their ticket package prices for sure. And would be a premier game on TV.
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Injuries happen in sports, just look at what happened to the BMX cyclist in the Olympics yesterday/today:
Then there’s Simone Biles who withdrew from the Olympics gymnastics competition, though maybe not entirely, because she felt her safety was at risk. She was smart, if that’s the case.
You’re not going to get rid of sports or sports injuries. Heck, every time I pickup up a barbell and lift it, I risk serious injury. Even running, I can be hit by a car or more likely by some friggin’ asshat bicyclist.
You can make sports safer, which they should and they’ll continue to do so, but really your point is off topic and moot.