<p>Re: Turning down elite schools for merit money. I don't think I can read all 51 pages of the thread from 2-1/2 years ago. But I was thinking about the following last night:</p>
<p>Harvard accepts 2,100 applicants for a class of 1,680. Yale accepts 1,800 applicants for a class of 1,300. Princeton accepts about 1,500 for a class of 1,200. Stanford, MIT have similar numbers.</p>
<p>A high proportion of those kids who turn down one or another of those schools have to be turning them down in favor of one of the other such schools. In my experience, at least, that is the #1 reason kids choose not to attend Harvard -- because they're going to Yale or Stanford or Princeton (or MIT, Amherst, etc.). I have no idea what the actual numbers are, but half of the 500 kids who turn down Harvard or Yale, and probably more of the kids at other schools, seems a very conservative estimate. Kids apply to more than one of these schools, and the schools are all looking for the same things. So while all of them face an overqualified applicant pool, it would be very surprising if their admissions decisions didn't have a high degree of overlap. (And of course that's what I see on the ground, too -- at least half the kids who get into Harvard also get into at least one of Yale, Stanford, MIT, etc.)</p>
<p>So, while I don't doubt that there are kids out there who are choosing a merit scholarship at Wash U over Harvard or Yale, and I even know of some specific examples, I also know for a fact -- based on the HYPS yield numbers -- that there just cannot be that many of them. Probably fewer than 1,000 per year across HYPSM, or less than 12% of the unique kids admitted to at least one of those schools.</p>
<p>Why is this relevant? The SCEA system works pretty well to give informed kids the option of playing merit schools off against HYPS -- Harvard may say that it's poorly understood among low income students, but I can tell you that it's very, very well understood at my kids' HS which is over 60% free lunch eligible. Not that many people take advantage of it (although when they do, they seem to rush to CC to brag). I don't see things changing much if the HYPS schools go off EA.</p>
<p>There WILL be one predictable effect of Harvard's termination of SCEA next year that I didn't mention before: Yale and Stanford are probably going to get about 1,500-2,000 additional SCEA applications each. Why not? I wouldn't be surprised if the Yale SCEA pool went to 6,000 applications. Yale may have to follow Harvard in shutting down SCEA just to avoid having to process that many strong (but comparatively affluent) applications in a short period of time, and at the very least the acceptance rate in the EA round is going to plummet.</p>