<p>Ten-twenty years ago, I would say that colleges are not trying to second guess where students may end up, in addition to assessing them for admissions. I don’t know a single adcom that would say this was happening, including a number with axes to grind. In fact, the exact opposite was said. Plus, for the most part, and really nearly always, the kids who got into the most selective schools also had a list of other schools that accepted them that were far less selective. I have a hard time believing that the kid who was turned down at Wash U was overqualified just because he was also accepted to NW, when I can see 6 other kids accepted to both schools and a bunch of ivies as well. Just doesn’t figure to me.</p>
<p>But in the last year or so, I am getting a bit uncomfortable and I wonder. I wonder because applications to these selective college have exploded in terms of number due to the common app and the loosening of the restrictions in the number of application that a lot of high schools are now doing. I know of several schools in this area who have lifted their caps, reluctantly, but because that is the way it is going down these days. The problem is that despite the number of apps increasing, the number of spaces has stayed pretty much the same and it causes a big problem for colleges as their historical yield and other enrollment data is no longer relevant to this new situation. So how to make sure you get enough kids to come, yet not over accept, and when it comes to aid, how to make sure you dispense it all without going over? It’s a problem that adcoms are having all over the place. The waitlist has become one answer to the situation, and I think enrollment management might well be putting some guess work in the process as well. Demonstrated interest really means that the school thinks you are more likely to come because of the time and attention you are giving the school. And kids who apply to 20 schools are not going to be able to as easily give each of those schools the same attention someone can who has 5 schools on the .list.</p>