<p>But I think it’s precisely because the number of apps at these schools that they are dealing with has exploded so much that I can’t imagine that they can focus on trying to second-guess any one student’s decision process all that much. It’s enough just trying to get through 25,000 apps and figure out whether you like the cheerleader with an interest in molecular biology from North Dakota better than the Boys State trumpeter from Georgia; to add in “I’m going to try to also second guess where each of you would really actually go and factor that into my decision making” seems like an untenable amount of work. </p>
<p>I don’t know, maybe I’m naive, but I"m pretty much a take-someone-at-face-value kind of person - if they applied, they cared; if they applied ED, they REALLY cared; and the error of admitting a kid who decides in good faith to go elsewhere (and hence damages my yield) doesn’t seem as devastating to the institution as the error of rejecting a kid because I secretly believe he wants to go to Harvard AND he’ll get in when in fact he really does love my school AND he’d be a great contributor / addition.</p>