Odds of getting in ED not good? Grades more important than test scores?

“Currently Tufts is her top choice…”

That’s IMO another problem with ED. My son is not any more fickle than most teens, but he went through many choices before settling on his application list. For quite a while, he was going for physics and math at MIT or CalTech. He spent some time during the summer at Yale and decided that a “broader” school would be better than a more “narrow” school (with all due respect to MIT and CalTech). As luck would have it, he was accepted SCEA and had a relatively stress-free senior year.

Fwiw, the number of Physics courses taken his first year: 0.
Expected number of Poli Sci, Psych, and History courses first year: 1.
Actual number of Poli Sci, Psych, and History courses taken first year: 4.

Life has a way of reducing options. I recommend not reducing options with ED unless it is true, beyond a reasonable doubt, that the school is #1.

I agree with that. She is totally undecided, which is one reason why a college like Tufts is appealing. And she is a total realist anyway, and perhaps a bit pessimistic. She is very aware that her stats aren’t “ideal”, and perhaps is doubtful that she will get in anywhere. We have a fairly good list of “safety” schools by now, and I am trying to reassure her that she will definitely at least get into one of them.
This leads me to another question, if anyone cares to answer. We have been using the stats on Collegedata and Uni go to match her up to colleges. We figured that if she had a better than 80% chance on those sites of getting into those colleges that they would be safe for her. Yesterday the GC said “No, absolutely do not rely on those site, they are next to useless.” Is that true? How can she be assured of getting in anywhere?

I think the online match programs are fun to play around with although my D never used the ones you mentioned. She did play around with Parchment and College Prowler but I wouldn’t rely on their accuracy! There can be many likelies out there which is why it is so great your D is willing to embrace the less selective options while keeping her eye on her favorite reaches. Some more accurate “tools” to use regarding chances:

  1. Common Data Set as mentioned upstream which you have probably checked out by now. The schools reveal which parts of the application they give most and least weight. If GPA and test scores are at or above the mid 50% that is a good start, higher the better of course. Below 50% is not a deal breaker- half the students are below that mark- but if that’s the case other aspects of the application need to stand out particularly strongly the farther you move from 50% such as recruited athlete, legacy, unique/special talents, skills, recommendations, interests etc. Tufts doesn’t report stats on GPA but it does say 90% of students are in the top 10% of their class (for students/schools reporting rank).

  2. Naviance if your D’s school uses it. My D’s does but unfortunately the GCs don’t update it with accurate accounts of where students apply, where they get in, and where they matriculate. So her Naviance reflects results of the self reporting of seniors, and very few take the time to update their results. I understand that many schools have accurate Naviance data, and if so it is a great way to see how students from your D’s high school have fared when applying to schools that interest her.

  3. A great college counselor. If she does have an excellent, experienced GC (one that really knows her and has an accurate feel for schools that would be a good fit) s/he can be an excellent barometer for her chances at a variety of different schools.

Tufts Admissions has a wonderful blog that is useful whether you are interested in attending there or not. Look at teh “Inside Admissions” posts and scroll back a year or so to see the different topics. There is a specific post from them about whether ED helps or not.
http://admissions.tufts.edu/blogs/