<p>Last year was Harvard’s first year without Early Decision, and they didn’t know what yields to expect. With one year of results, they felt comfortable increasing the number of offers without risking over subscription.</p>
<p>I suggest you take a course in statistics. A range of 76-80% is not that wide considering that Yale’s average is 70%, and Princeton is 67%. A 1% change is a mere 20 students out of 2,000. The drop from the class of 2011 vs 2012 is can be rationalized by the elimination of Early Decision, and the beginning of a economic downturn.</p>
<p>They won’t even say how many were waitlisted. They’re being so secretive, they might just pick up and move the entire university overnight and not tell anyone where they’re hiding it. Could be a problem for kids with an early class …</p>
<p>While we are waiting, here’s something to think about just for fun. I’m wondering if admissions offices ever consciously decides to admit fewer students than they know they could admit w/o going over their target, and therefore have to take more off the waitlist, with the goal of lowering their reported admit rate. Of course, the waitlist admits do end up getting added into the final numbers. But admitting fewer and but then taking more off the waitlist would likely result in a lower overall admit rate even after those admitted off the waitlist are added into the numerator and denominator of the admit percentage calculation. For example, last year Harvard ended up needing to take 200 off the waitlist. But by taking fewer regular admits and more off the waitlist, they ended up with a lower admit rate than if they had accurately estimated the number that was needed to be admitted to achieve their desired class size. This is because the yield from students who have taken the initiative to accept a waitlist slot is probably much greater (close to 100% in Harvard’s case) than the yield from regular admitted students (about 80% in Harvard’s case). When Yale saw that Stanford’s EA admit rate of 12.8% was lower than Yale’s EA admit rate of 13.4%, could that have motivated them to try to keep their overall admit rate below Stanford’s by consciously deciding to have to go to their waitlist in a bigger way then they knew was necessary. It’s interesting that Yale somehow managed to just barely eke out an overall admit rate of 7.5% compared to Stanford’s 7.6% overall.</p>