<p>Needing Oklahoma to drop 1 point from last year. Any thoughts?</p>
<p>I’d say the odds are in your favor in Oklahoma for at least a 1 point drop. I haven’t looked at OK specifically but I see they had a big jump in the cutoff last year (3 points), which is hard to sustain. Plus, the general trend should be downward for most states given the national results that were released earlier.</p>
<p>Need a 2 pt drop in North Carolina. From 217 down to 215. Fingers crossed.</p>
<p>Chillin with a 225, I hope my principal doesn’t sit on the info too long though. First day of school is next monday, do you guys think they’ll know that week?</p>
<p>If they were mailed Monday, I was hoping we would hear from cooperative HS faculty this week.</p>
<p>clapuma, how did you come up with those estimates?</p>
<p>Clapuma, can you please tell me if you think that Missouri’s cutoff will drop or rise? It was 213 last year (last 5 yrs-213,210,211,211,213 I believe) and my son got a 213 so we are anxiously awaiting the news! What would be your thoughts for Missouri?</p>
<p>
You can see examples of clapuma’s method throughout this thread:
<a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/national-merit-scholarships/1265245-psat-cutoff.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/national-merit-scholarships/1265245-psat-cutoff.html</a></p>
<p>The method attempts to project cut-offs based on historic national patterns and state-specific scoring data for this year. Unfortunately the data released does not allow precise calculations and so only rough estimates can be attempted.</p>
<p>I certainly hope Clapuma’s right, because I’m really anxious with a 216 in Georgia.</p>
<p>Hi. I don’t have my numbers available (yes, I’m doing this on the “fly”), but I analyzed the data for OR and got a similar drop…though can’t remember now if it was 1 or 2 points, as it’s been a while…
S is sitting at a 216, so we’ll be happy as long as it doesn’t go up! :S
Will let everyone know when/if we hear anything…</p>
<p>DS is sitting at 218 in TX and we really hope it will go down a point or two this year. His school does not normally inform students until second or third week of September.</p>
<p>aghaby ~ NMC said they will release the state #s on Sept. 12. If you haven’t heard from your school by then you can just call NMC.</p>
<p>mommaof5~ Thanks. Will definitely follow up with the school and if necessary will call NMC. We hope that we will get some early insights into state cut scores here at CC.</p>
<p>Yay! an organized thread! It would be easier to post the states and things in a table, maybe Google Docs.</p>
<p>waiting in CO; D got a 221 so should be good.</p>
<p>jennieling: Just looked at the state level data for MO. It looks good. Compared to the prior test, the number of MO students scoring in the 75-80 range went down 34%! Surprisingly, the numbers scoring in the next two bands were down slightly too (normally the people who fall out of the top band increase the next highest bands). So it looks very good for a drop. A 3 point drop (all the way to 210) wouldn’t surprise me and would be consistent with the 3 point drop in the 99% cutoff at the National Level.</p>
<p>Clapuma, thanks so much! I had looked at the state data, and that was my thought too, but I’m new to this, so I really appreciate your giving me your thoughts on MO!</p>
<p>Wow this thread is a good idea…I wonder why I’ve never seen it before.</p>
<p>Clapuma, what do you think about MD’s cutoff? I’m right on the borderline with a 221…I hope the downward trend you predicted applies to all states!</p>
<p>I’m cautious about predicting MD. It’s a high performing state and had been in lock step for a number of years with the ups and downs of the 99%+ range until last year. Last year the 99%+ range at the National level went up 2 points, but MD only went up 1. There will still be downward pressure, as with every state, but MD may be less likely to follow the National trend down than with some others. States definitely vary. If I have time I’ll look at the state level data, but you’ll probably know the actual answer in a few days anyway.</p>
<p>Shouldn’t we find out some cutoffs today if the list was mailed out earlier this week?</p>