<p>Boarding schools in New England have a different school break than other schools in NE. They have 2-3 weeks in March. So that incubation period has passed.
We just don’t have enough info right now, we have cause for concern, not panic. We should monitor the situation and take precautions.</p>
<p>I think the initial post was about the Spanish Flu in the early 1900’s. I see a discussion of Swine Flu working its way in here.</p>
<p>[url=<a href=“http://www.wpxi.com/video/19313969/index.html]Video[/url”>http://www.wpxi.com/video/19313969/index.html]Video[/url</a>]</p>
<p>4/28/09 /\ interview /</p>
<p>In this interview the speaker brings up interesting comparisons of then and now.</p>
<p>Here’s my question:</p>
<p>Is there any indication that this “swine” flu is any more lethal than whatever strain hit my family in February? Is it any more likely to kill HEALTHY people? Any kind of flu is always a concern for more vulnerable populations. </p>
<p>I do understand that viruses mutate and can often become deadlier (was going to say “virulent” but it was redundant!). Is the fear that this strain will start mild and grow stronger?</p>
<p>I have to admit that I am not terribly concerned about this particular flu. HOWEVER, it is unbelievably frightening that it has spread so quickly. Can you imagine if people in Mexico had been intentionally exposed…and it was a different disease - like smllpx? THAT is what I find frightening.</p>
<p>I discussed this with a biology professor. He says that one concern about the swine flu is novelty: none of us have any antibodies against it, because it’s so different from other flu viruses. In contrast, you already had some antibodies against the flu you got this winter, due to the similarity to previous years’ flu viruses (otherwise, your cases would have felt even worse!). </p>
<p>As for deadliness, the numbers aren’t in yet. The 1918 flu virus killed 2% of infected people, but it was so easily transmitted that many millions died. In contrast, bird flu is believed to kill over half of all infected people, but it’s really hard to get from either a bird or another person so the total number of deaths has been miniscule in comparison. </p>
<p>I feel so sorry for the people in Mexico, who have this and then a resulting big economic wallop when they are already suffering from the global economic woes.</p>
<p>Amazingness, the Mexican toddler died 6 days before the story broke. The kid didn’t just die yesterday. He died 6 days ago here in the US. That is the biggest missed point in all this.</p>
<p>Neato, the answer is yes because is has the H5N1 piece in it.
Seriously view this link. [url=<a href=“http://www.wpxi.com/video/19313969/index.html]Video[/url”>http://www.wpxi.com/video/19313969/index.html]Video[/url</a>]</p>
<p>sarum, thanks for ruining a much needed good nights sleep with that!</p>
<p>Sorry, tracking this stuff has been a hobby of mine for quite a few years. If anyone is interested in some very intelligent scientist filled blogs discussing this topic PM me.</p>
<p>Sarum: That is a great post and link. For those of you who don’t know him, Niman is legendary in these circles. Some claim he is alarmist-he has been hyping avian flu for a couple years; others that he is visionary. This is his regular website: [Recombinomics</a> In The News](<a href=“http://www.recombinomics.com/in_the_news.html]Recombinomics”>http://www.recombinomics.com/in_the_news.html), although he also has other sites as well as threads on still others.</p>
<p>I am no expert – I have just read a few articles here and there --but my understanding is that the flu is hitting healthy adults ages 20-45, a population not usually as susceptible to the flu (or at least they don’t usually die of it).</p>
<p>Please remember that he may be biased based on his business and that he is getting his information primarily from media rather than from the CDC.</p>
<p>World Health Organization released their numbers today and they are nothing like what the media here was reporting for Mexico.</p>
<p>The numbers as of 5 PM at WHO Headquarters are: </p>
<p>Canada- 13 cases
United States- 64/ 1 death
Mexico-26/7 deaths
Israel- 2
Spain-4
United Kingdom-2
New Zealand-3</p>
<p>“Watch what they are doing, not what they say.”</p>
<p>But, read this article so you all can sleep tonight:</p>
<p>[Critical</a> Alert: The Swine Flu Pandemic ? Fact or Fiction?](<a href=“http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2009/04/29/Swine-Flu.aspx]Critical”>The Swine Flu Pandemic - Fact or Fiction?)</p>
<p>It’s good to give all sides a turn.</p>
<p>FYI, WHO has been known to take a virus sample from a third world country such as Vietnam, sell it to the big Vaccine companies and then withhold the product from the country of origin because the country’s peasants can’t afford the fees to mass inoculate their herds.
Southeast Asia generally doesn’t trust WHO’s numbers or their motivation.</p>
<p>Very few labs have the tests that can actually confirm the virus. CDC is currently working on creating and distributing test kits so that confirmation can be more localized. When that piece is in place, I expect the numbers of confirmed cases will jump significantly.</p>
<p>As far as the Niman video, nothing in it struck me as blatantly wrong. (Although some of it I may not be educated enough to know its accuracy.) Niman is in a position to say what he thinks. Remember that the CDC typically does not report anything that they can’t prove or confirm. They don’t publicize any hunches or conjectures. FWIW, the official CDC briefings are publicized within 1 to 2 hours of the internal briefings. The publicized ones are the same as the internal ones, so acc. to my hb, they are not withholding any information. (Edited to add: They update their figures at 11:00 a.m. daily.)</p>
<p>Wash your hands, wash your hands, wash your hands! And if you are sick, stay home. Be cognizant of crowded enclosed places. And avoid unnecessary travel. It’s spreading very quickly.</p>
<p>Sarum- It was interesting to hear that the child in TX died six days ago.</p>
<p>That’s how long it takes for the swabs to come back:(</p>
<p>“There may be a possibility that the virus will die out and stop, and that would be the best for us. But it can turn the other way.”
“In the 1918 pandemic, the first wave was mild, but by fall, the second wave killed many people. So whichever way this virus swings, we can’t possibly know,” said Guan Yi, a microbiologist at the University of Hong Kong. </p>
<p>There were three pandemic flu outbreaks in the 20th century – in 1918, 1957 and 1968 – known respectively as Spanish, Asian, and Hong Kong influenza. An estimated 50 million people died in the first outbreak, about 2 million in the second and between 1 and 3 million in the third.</p>
<p>Case Fatality Ratio is higher this Spring, 2009 than it was in the Spring of 1918. 1918 Spanish Flu’s CFR was only 2.5%
As of right now
CFR 5.4% 2009</p>
<p>Watch this: <a href=“http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0wK1127fHQ4&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.vuetoo.com%2Fvue1%2Fnewsemergency01.asp%3Ffeeda%3DrA%26sitcontno%3D6850%26af%3D&feature=player_embedded[/url]”>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0wK1127fHQ4&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.vuetoo.com%2Fvue1%2Fnewsemergency01.asp%3Ffeeda%3DrA%26sitcontno%3D6850%26af%3D&feature=player_embedded</a></p>
<p>The higher CFR is probably not completely accurate (or useful to make comparisons) at this time due to skews in reporting and testing. It’s likely that there were a lot more mild cases of the flu that went unreported and untested in Mexico.</p>
<p>Scaling the 1918 deaths for population and higher CFR:</p>
<p>1918 population ~ 1.8B
2009 population ~ 6.8B</p>
<p>1918 CFR - 2.5%
2009 CFR - 5.4%</p>
<p>1918 deaths - 50M</p>
<p>–> 2009 est deaths = 408M</p>
<p>Scary stuff.</p>
<p>Here’s another link: [Plan</a> & Prepare](<a href=“http://www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/index.html]Plan”>http://www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/index.html)</p>
<p>At risk of sounding alarmist, it’s probably not a bad idea to stock up a little. If your town were to shut down like Mexico City for a week, would you have enough supplies to last a week or two? </p>
<p>If a case of the virus is found in a US school, I am pretty sure they’ll shut down the whole school system in that area for at least a few days to try to mitigate the spread. I will not be surprised if we have some social disruption in this country. Perhaps there already is in NY, TX, CA, and SC with school closings, etc. Having a bunch of people sick all at the same time will also likely have some impact. </p>
<p>The above link also has planning checklists for various groups including schools. I assume that boarding schools would be included under the ‘colleges and universities’ as physically a bs is much more similar to a college. Here’s the one for schools:</p>
<p>[School</a> Planning](<a href=“http://www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/school/index.html]School”>http://www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/school/index.html)</p>
<p>Here is an interesting report about testing, etc…</p>
<p>[State</a> Labs: US Swine Flu Cases Likely Higher - Health News Story - KCTV Kansas City](<a href=“http://www.kctv5.com/health/19336823/detail.html]State”>http://www.kctv5.com/health/19336823/detail.html)</p>
<p>This is a very good Fire Drill, though it’s more like a smoking garbage can drill. It’s not if a major killer flu pandemic is coming it’s when. Even if this Mexican Flu goes away with minimal life lost, the public has become Flu Evolved which is a very good thing!
I hear there is an amino acid missing at this point, which doesn’t allow the flu to replicate at as high a rate as it could. This is a blessing. It could Recombine into the killer with another virus, or it could go away.</p>
<p>/ Farmers fear pigs may get “swine” flu from people/
By Carey Gillam
Posted 2009/05/01 at 8:15 am EDT</p>
<p>KANSAS CITY, May 1, 2009 (Reuters) — Humans have it. Pigs don’t. At least not yet, and U.S. pork producers are doing everything they can to make sure that the new H1N1 virus, known around the world as the “swine flu,” stays out of their herds.</p>
<p>“That is the biggest concern, that your herd could somehow contract this illness from an infected person,” said Kansas hog farmer Ron Suther, who is banning visitors from his sow barns and requiring maintenance workers, delivery men and other strangers to report on recent travels and any illness before they step foot on his property.
“If a person is sick, we don’t want you coming anywhere on the farm,” Suther said.</p>
<p>Something humorous is in there!</p>