This was one of the first threads I ever read on CC - it was posted 17 years ago. I don’t really buy into the “by the numbers, a T10 match” when this has been happening for almost 2 decades. The “who could have known” idea is a little long in the tooth for me.
The issue that is now in play is that what schools are targets/matches have changed but people’s perceptions haven’t. It’s the same story, with more ‘newly rejective’ schools in the mix.