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Chance of admission can be far higher than 70-80% for some. 2014 stats are still listed as “preliminary”, so I’ll use 2013 instead. In 2013, the 11.5% of UCLA applicants who had the highest UW GPA had an admit rate of more than 70%, with no consideration to course rigor, test scores, or any other factor. If you look at applicants who have a top GPA combined high course rigor and top test scores, than the admit rate is far higher than 70% for just GPA… high enough that I think it would be in your almost-safety range. In another thread, you linked to the decisions for CA public HS located near UCLA with scores of UCLA applicants at <a href=“http://www.pvphs.com/pdf/CollegeAcceptance.pdf”>http://www.pvphs.com/pdf/CollegeAcceptance.pdf</a> . Note that the scattergram for UCLA shows no rejections among the many top stat applicants. Earlier in the thread I mentioned a 100% admit rate among recent Parchment applicants with top GPA + SAT + course rigor. Scattergrams do not consider course rigor. Nevertheless ones that have a large sample size across many high schools also suggest an admit rate of near 100% for this group. I realize the sources are not ideal, but they suggest that the admit rate increases quite a bit beyond the published rate for GPA alone when top GPA is combined with excelling in other areas, which is consistent with admit rates for stat groups at other colleges.</p>
<p>Chance of admission can be very high at USC for some groups of applicants as well. USC’s CDS is quite different from ivies and other holistic-focused, selective colleges that we often discuss. The only criteria that is marked as “important” in USC’s CDS relates to grades and test scores – GPA, test scores, and secondary school record. USC’s decisions reflect this focus on grades and scores, with students who excel in the criteria marked as important having an extremely high chance of admission. USC sponsorship of NMSs and very large NMS totals also suggests emphasizing stats and a high admit rate for certain groups. While the chance of admission for top stat applicants to USC is quite high, several sources suggest it is a bit lower than at UCLA, which likely relates to certain majors at USC being more selective than others or having different admission criteria, such as USC’s School of Cinematic Arts admits. I would not assume a SCA applicant with excellent stats has a high chance of admission.</p>