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A goal too high has two -- or three -- potential problems: 1) It looks bad to fall short of it; 2) If it is made big for the sake of being big, it doesn't cover genuine needs, a fact that can be a real turnoff to potential donors; and 3) There are more and more donors that think the multi-billion dollar endowments of Ivy League schools are obscene -- even those who have attended the school. Though admittedly this attention applies to other Ivy League schools typically.
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I agree that these are potential problems with campaigns in general, but not so much for Penn in this particular campaign:</p>
<p>1) A shortfall is always a potential problem, but so far Penn has met--and usually exceeded--every campaign goal it has set in at least the last 40 or so years, including its very ambitious (for the time) $1 billion+ campaign in the 1990s. Plus, this campaign is somewhat unique in that they're promoting it--literally--as a "once-in-a-century opportunity" to push Penn to the next--i.e., highest--level of eminence (Amy's words and main theme since she first took office). It's a this-is-our-moment kind of thing, that Penn currently has (again in Amy's words) "momentum unmatched by any other institution" (which is certainly true when the past 15 years are considered), and that we have to take our best shot now to capitalize on that momentum and seal the deal. The potentially transformational nature of this campaign gives it a unique appeal not usually seen is these types of campaigns. Again in Amy's words: "In front of us is the path to eminence--a campaign that promises to make Penn not only a university of distinction but also one that will model for the world a 21st-century vision for higher education." I.e., this is our chance to rise to the level of HYPS--not a claim normally made for a single campaign, but clearly the message being sent here (and echoed by things I've heard Amy say in person, also). With this kind of audacious pre-campaign promotion, any goal even close to the current benchmarks at Stanford, Columbia, and Cornell would be a real let-down.</p>
<p>2) As Johnny pointed out, Penn has more than enough genuine needs to justify a $5-6 billion campaign. Even with its significant 65% growth over the past couple of years, Penn's endowment is still far below the level of those schools for which it seeks to be viewed as a peer (see #1, above). Further, on a per capita basis, Penn's endowment doesn't even rank among the top 50 schools, if I remember correctly. Moreover, to accomplish the goals of financial aid and accessibility that Amy has made her #1 cause celebre, and the extensive faculty growth and development that she has also championed, a much larger endowment is required. And, as Johnny also points out, in addition to endowment requirements, there are the uniquely large physical plant needs of the eastern campus expansion, the extensive physical overhaul of large portions of the existing campus, and investment in the surrounding neighborhood, which on their own could easily consume a $3-4 billion capital campaign.</p>
<p>3) I think the "obscenity factor" might be a concern if Penn were sitting on a $25-35 billion endowment a la Harvard and Yale, but its current $6.6 billion endowment can't even begin to cover the needs outlined above for a school of its size. I doubt that any significant number of people who are well-informed about this (i.e., big donors) will view Penn's fundraising efforts or its endowment as "obscene".</p>
<p>To summarize, my sense is that Amy and the trustees believe that for Penn to reach the next level--which is obviously their goal--a bit of audacity is required. A $5-6 billion goal would fill that bill. Anything less would be "just another $4 billion campaign." But we'll know for sure in 3 days. :)</p>