<p>or is it possible that 10 years later it will drop to 20 or something around that range?</p>
<p>Since the 1998 US News ranking (which was published in 1997), Penn consistently has been ranked from #4 to #7:</p>
<p>U.S</a>. News Rankings Through the Years</p>
<p>Given all the trends in its favor (e.g., endowment growth, admissions numbers, research budget, etc.), and the current and planned developments ($3.5 billion capital campaign, eastern campus expansion and other physical development, etc.), it's unlikely that Penn will be falling in esteem--in US News or otherwise--in the foreseeable future. To the contrary, the mantra of President Gutmann and the current administration is for Penn to go "from excellence to eminence."</p>
<p>The only ways Penn will fall in USNWR are if either of the following happen:
1. USNWR changes it's methodology emphasizing parts where Penn is weak.
2. 10+ universities ranked lower somehow double their endowments and do other things that USNWR emphasizes to pass Penn in the rankings.</p>
<p>Back in the 80's, Penn was the bottom dweller of the Ivy League along with Cornell. It has risen meteorically over the last 10+ years and they seem to have landed comfortably in USN's top 10 list. Lots of kids (especially from NY/NJ/N england) want to go there and they seem to have left Cornell solely in the anchor position within the Ivy League. That said, I have this nagging feeling that once this next generation of HS kids graduates and we revert back to historical demographic norms, Penn's luster will fade quite a bit. Couple of touch points - 1) Penn has never been able to brand themselves as well as Dartmouth or Brown, so Penn is still mistaken for a large, land grant university by your average joe on the street; 2) Penn has a great medical school, very good law school and, of course, Wharton, but aside from Wharton none of the schools is seen as truly elite. Very good, no doubt, but lacks the cachet of even a Columbia. And 3) if you do a pref/regrets model with Penn vs its major overlap schools, 9.5 times out of 10, Penn loses out to HYPS and even to Columbia or Duke. Penn is good - even very good. But they are more closely matched to a Northwestern, Georgetown or Hopkins than one of the uber elites and thus, when things get back to the norm, they will go from being "most selective" back to "highly selective" - which is probably where they belong.</p>
<p>The demographics have nothing like the effect KW is suggesting. While this year was the projected peak for U.S. high school graduates, the "peak" is only about 2% higher than the "trough" projected roughly six years from now, and only about 3% higher than five years ago, which feels like a different era in college admissions. And that's U.S. high school seniors. In Asia, especially, high school seniors are increasing sharply, and thanks to exchange rates we have decided to cut prices for them in half if they want to attend college in the U.S. No one paying attention believes that any elite U.S. college is going to see a meaningful decline in applications in the foreseeable future.</p>
<p>^ Agreed. Plus, I think that KW overlooks many of the "internals" that have helped Penn hold its 4-7 spot in US News for 11 straight years, and generally enhance its applicant pool and perceived status, aside from the recent high tide in high school population having lifted all boats.</p>
<p>Plus, the only "pref/regrets model" I've ever seen--the notorious "Revealed Preference" study based on data gathered 8 or so years ago--had Penn not far behind Colubmia (41% choosing Penn over Columbia) and ahead of Duke (66% choosing Penn over Duke):</p>
<p>The</a> New York Times > Week in Review > Image > Collegiate Matchups: Predicting Student Choices</p>
<p>And again, that data was collected 8 years ago, before Penn had spent 11 solid years ranked 4-7 by US News and had dramatically enhanced its admissions stats to what they are today (not to mention Penn's having made substantial improvements and enhancements to its campus and neighborhood, undergraduate programs and activities, etc.).</p>
<p>I feel like kay dubya just dredged out a post from 10 years ago or something and reposted it. It really ignores reality wherever possible.</p>
<p>As an aside in my little corner of the academic universe: Penn Med isn't elite? really? what planet are you from?</p>
<p>and apparently penn law too</p>
<p>Penn has much better recognition and reputation among younger generations than it does among older ones. The last decade or so of students learning about colleges have only known a world in which Penn was a very high ranking school.</p>
<p>Older people remember the days when Penn didn't even make the cut for US News, when its acceptance rate was 45%, when university city was a war zone, etc. And old habits die hard.</p>
<p>"Old people remember the days . . . when its acceptance rate was 45%"</p>
<p>;)</p>