Please let me know your thoughts on this list of LACs to apply to

College Search & Selection
61

@doschicos

I’m not assuming that the decisions are somehow dependent. This is just how probability works. To use your coin example, let’s say it’s a fair coin - a heads means you get in, tails means rejection. The probability of getting 1 heads within 5 flips is 1-0.5^5 = 96.9%. Probably an easier way to see this is that the only scenario in which you don’t get at least 1 heads is if you get 5 tails in a row. The probability of that is 0.5^5, or 3.1%.

Similarly, the only way my daughter wouldn’t get into one of the 4 reach schools is if she gets tails on all 4 flips. Of course it’s not a fair coin, so she has a 95% chance of getting a tail on any given flip. The probability of getting 4 tails is 0.95^4, or 81.5%, meaning the probability of getting at least one hit is the remaining 18.5%.

The bigger question is: given my D’s overall profile, are those probabilities roughly correct? For example, if she had a 2.0 average and 1000 SAT score, and I was using 5% as the probability for schools like Brown and Yale, my analysis would be far from accurate. :slight_smile:

62

@2mrmagoo - Going to read it now!

63

FYI Willamette is very LGBT+ friendly, fwiw. (My dd is there… she’s cis and straight but probably half of her friends aren’t). It would make a good safety for your daughter if she likes it, and they give good merit aid to strong students.

64

Yes.

Also, Yes.

The risk would be if the case were that a set of schools presents similar thresholds, which could, hypothetically, result in a sequence of zeros for a certain selectivity level.

65

Probability math may not be the whole story, though. Sometimes there is something in an application that either makes many colleges like and accept an applicant or that turns off (or at least fails to attract) many colleges and leads to multiple rejections for the applicant.

I recommend applying to some colleges early, including some colleges where acceptance is likely… in part to ensure you do not have something off-putting in your application (but more importantly, to increase your acceptance odds and to provide security that you got into a college).

If you get rejected by a safety or low match, analyze and rework your remaining applications, and apply to some even safer safeties!

66

The sane issue that keeps an applicant out of one school could work against them at many schools, so your statistical analysis doesn’t work. An essay that strikes adult readers the wrong way (or as flat), a slightly less than glowing recommendation, tougher admissions for women than men at many LACs, superficial approach to “Why College X?” essays, an offhand comment by GC to schools that call for info… those can all burn a kid. I see nothing wrong with her list, except that it sounds like she doesn’t like her safeties. You need to focus on finding safeties she likes.

67

I think you’re all making the same point, and you’re all absolutely right. :slight_smile: My calculation just assumes that she’s got some probability of x% of being accepted at each of the schools. You’re absolutely right that a common factor that’s a turn-off to all schools would impact this a great deal!

68

I’m not going to get into the statistics discussion (beyond my skill set), but in my observation, if an applicant is successful at one or two reach schools because of an interesting profile/great stats/ECs/well-written and compelling narrative/stellar recs, etc. that applicant will likely be successful at others, so that will affect the odds tremendously. Much as we like to think it’s a lottery, it’s not. Unpredictable, sometimes. Random, not so much.

Likewise, as @intparent correctly points out, red flags will be red flags all over and a tepid essay, read-between-the-lines mediocre recs that do not say that your kid is the greatest thing since sliced bread, generic supplements, etc. can tank an applicant everywhere except true safeties.

My only concern that I mentioned in one of my very long posts that might have gotten lost in the shuffle is the language thing. I think you need to find out if not having taken classes and relying on an AP score will cut it for foreign language requirements/recommendations at some of the more competitive schools. I have some concerns there, but I’m not a professional. You should talk to your D’s GC and call a few admissions folks at some of her schools.

If it is the case that not having taken FL classes might be considered a problem (and I’m not saying it is – you just don’t want to give schools any reason to not admit your D), I offered up some suggestions, including dual enrollment and online college classes in Advanced Japanese and Japanese Literature. If those don’t work, perhaps she can start another FL (something like ASL might be interesting…). If she takes classes at the college level, two semesters would could as 2 years of HS foreign language, the generally accepted minimum requirement for many schools. Just a thought.

69

I don’t think you should underestimate the gender impact, either. A lot more women than men apply to LACs, and they want balanced classes.

Honestly, likely she will have some good choices from this list. But you won’t be sorry if you take the safety search more seriously so she has pretty sure choices that she likes. One of my kids got in everyplace she applied, but I don’t regret the time & expense spent in finding solid safeties for her. My other kid fell in love with her safety and attended it.

70

True. She’s going to be working on her essays over the summer. I think she’s a great writer, but we’ll have to see how her drafts come along. I think her recs should turn out reasonably well. She’s already asked a couple teachers (1 AP Lang, 1 APES) if they felt they could write her a strong recommendation, and they both said yes. One problem with the APES teacher is that she left school about 2/3 of the way through the school year to have a baby. So I’m not sure how solid her impression of my D was. Her Honors Bio teacher from sophomore year really loved her, so I’m wondering if that might be better for her science recommendation. (When we ran into that teacher at my younger daughter’s rising freshman meet and greet, she gushed about her, but not necessarily as a budding scientist. My D gave a speech at the MLK assembly that the Bio teacher thought was really brave and inspiring, and she also liked how she approached one assignment that gave her a chance to show off her creative side.)

I had - and continue to have - the same concern. She asked a few places. Oberlin straight out told her that if she got a 5 on AP Japanese, that met their expectations. Bowdoin gave a more wishy-washy answer: they don’t have any hard and fast requirements and review all applications holistically, so they’ll want to see what she replaced her foreign language courses with.

She may want to do that. She thought about taking a summer class at UW, but then decided against it since she wanted to get a summer job instead. I do worry a bit about that. Perhaps an online course is not a bad idea…

71

Kenyon’s list of overlap colleges can serve as a guide for shaping a list such as your daughter’s, at least with respect to highly selective inclusions: https://www.kenyon.edu/admissions-aid/admissions-statistics/#companywekeep.

72

These were my average excellent daughter’s results in 2011 (with 4.0 GPA, 35 ACT, 780 SAT, tied for first in her class of 500, had taken a college math class):

Rejected: Brown, Yale, Dartmouth, Stanford
Waitlist: Middlebury, Pomona
Accepted: Amherst, Carleton, Chicago, Colby, Colgate, Grinnell, Minnesota, Scripps, Smith, Whitman, Wisconsin.

I suspect that economic diversity was a factor for Amherst (we were low income at the time) and that legacy was for Chicago (her dad and my parents graduated from there).

73

I would worry more than just a bit about it if I were you. While some schools say “required” others “recommended” (which of course mean “required”), and others evaluate holistically, lacking a core area of study might give a school pause.

The only time I’ve seen students exempt from the requirement is when they’re are learning challenges involved.

Given how reach-y some of these schools on your D’s are, showing an interest in foreign language and literature by taking higher level language classes will help strengthen her profile quite a bit. You don’t want anything to tank her application.

I may be off base (maybe others can weigh in here), but I think it should be a priority for her, if at all possible. It would definitely be preferable over something like AP Psych.

As for possibilities she can look into:

There are B-term summer classes at UW starting next week and she could potentially take an advanced Japanese class (3rd year) or 2nd year. She should definitely consider doing a language class there. Can she adjust her work schedule to make it work?

Here’s the summer schedule:

https://www.summer.uw.edu/courses-programs/intensive-foreign-language-courses/

https://asian.washington.edu/summer-study

Here’s the fall schedule:

https://www.washington.edu/students/timeschd/AUT2018/japanese.html

The only online summer classes they offer at UW are in elementary Greek (which if she has any interest in the Classics, might be interesting).

As for other online college classes:

University of Maryland has online courses, but only up through advanced intermediate level:

https://www.umuc.edu/academic-programs/course-information.cfm?course=JAPN

Brigham Young University (an excellent school for languages, given the whole missionary thing; perhaps a better experience online than on campus for some – I know it will be for me!) has a whole independent study online college classes – including advanced foreign languages and literature classes – for credit:

https://is.byu.edu/search/search_by_page/online%20japanese

74

“Likewise, as @intparent correctly points out, red flags will be red flags all over and a tepid essay, read-between-the-lines mediocre recs that do not say that your kid is the greatest thing since sliced bread, generic supplements, etc. can tank an applicant everywhere except true safeties.”

The reality is for colleges with very low acceptance rates, which is a decent portion of the OP’s list, you don’t need a tepid essay, mediocre recs, or generic supplements to get rejected. Many excellent candidates still get rejected every year. Also, remember that the 10% or 20% acceptance rate does not apply to this student. That is an overall acceptance rate. In that acceptance rate will be athletes, legacies, first generation, students applying through programs like Questbridge or Posse, URMs, development cases, students with world class skills, etc. OP’s daughter is a very solid student but this is where the “average excellent” comes in. She doesn’t have hooks. Her chances, right off the bat, will likely be lower because she doesn’t fit a specific group that sees higher acceptance rates and thus skews the average. As an example, look at some of the recent threads on Harvard about info coming out as a result of the court case - 83% of recruited athletes are accepted, legacies are in the 30s if I remember correctly. Other colleges are doing the same as Harvard. You don’t need mediocrity and red flags to receive a thanks but no thanks next March/April.

“These were my average excellent daughter’s results in 2011”

Excellent results but things have got much more competitive in the past 7 years, for sure.

75

I was trying to be subtle, but you are very right, @doschicos. My daughter’s results were excellent but she had the grades and scores that caused some people to say, “She’ll get in everywhere!” And clearly, she didn’t.

She was rejected or waitlisted by all the high reaches except Amherst and Chicago, for which there were special circumstances. She was accepted by the reaches and matches.

76

Wow, @rosered55, your daughter is much more average excellent than mine! :slight_smile:

77

@LoveTheBard Point taken on the foreign language bit. I kind of regret not letting her take Japanese 2 as a freshman and get the easy A all 4 years…

78

@dla26 - To quote Lady M. “…what’s done, is done.” Thankfully, unlike the Macbeths who were not dealing with with “things without all remedy” (the first part of the quote), there’s still time to remedy this situation if indeed it should be remedied. With a bit of effort and creativity, she can turn it around. At the very least, she can prove to schools that her level of Japanese proficiency is that of an advanced undergraduate student (not sure a 5 on an AP exam quite does that).

Again, I don’t have any specific knowledge about how NOT taking a foreign language will be seen by Admissions, but it does give me pause.

79

This is kind of a out-of-left-field suggestion, but the whole foreign language discussion reminded me of one of my college roommates, who did a “super-senior” year at a Japanese high school as an AFS exchange student between high school and college, and always expressed thtat it was one of the best experiences of her life. Would your daughter have any interest at all in something like this? If she really wants to aim for tippy-top-tier colleges, this would give her the opportunity to rack up the missing foreign language credits in a native-speaker setting, take another level of calculus and perhaps another AP-level science, and have her grades from her upcoming senior year count and thus potentially bump her cumulative/weighted GPA up another notch (no idea whether this would circumvent the whole class rank issue or not…?) - plus, just the experience and maturity that such an experience brings would strengthen her application.

I’m not in any way saying that she can’t do well this time around. Just running this up the flagpole as a possibility, should it happen to appeal to her.

80

Interesting suggestion. I actually was an exchange student to Japan in high school myself. (I went back again after college for grad school, and that’s where I met my wife.) I personally like the idea, but I don’t think my D would be that interested. She’s been to Japan many times (usually only a couple weeks at a time to visit relatives), and I think is really excited to move on to college. But if she gets rejected by all of her top choices, it could be a good plan B.