Poll: China vs USA

College Confidential Community
1

<p>Series of questions on this nightmare scenario:</p>

<li>Can the U.S. invade China in the first place?</li>
<li>Are America’s technological and firepower advantages helpful in the long run against 1 billion people?</li>
<li>How effective would U.S. airpower be?</li>
<li>Is it safe to say every Chinese citizen would fight?</li>
<li>Can the U.S. hold up against a modern military supported by guerrilla warfare?</li>
<li>Any other thoughts?</li>
</ol>

<p>Also, does anyone know of any tactics or warplans the U.S. has in store regarding China?</p>

2

<p>yes,yes,very,no,yes,no</p>

<p>but america will never invade china. ever.</p>

3

<p>Why are you even asking these questions? I'd rather not think about it, if there is a war in the future(with any nation), it is going to be horrific. And why are you treating China as the enemy? Most people in China like the US, they just don't agree with US foreign policy. You could say that about almost every nation in the world.</p>

4

<p>exactly wraider. also its only protectionists, the extreme right and left that don't like china. while war is usually none to pleasant, that shouldn't dissuade the us from waging war if it needs to. that said though, a china-usa war would be pretty horrific and nuclear war would be a real possibility</p>

5

<p>I honestly think the US don't even plan of attacking china and vice versa. China has the number 1 growing economy in the world, much thanks to the.... US, why? a VERY large % of china's export is headed to the US. Without the US buying all the goods china's economy will collapse (and if for some reason china will stop selling to the US so prices will rise world wide and will damage the economy), so basically this scenario really isn't realistic at all. But if answering your question, even though china has 1Billion citizens, large % of those are (according to that I've heard - not saying it's a fact) located in the coutry sides and aren't "as modern" as the city people, therefore narrowing down the Billion people to something like 500million, closer to the 300 million of the US. other than that, I don't think that in case of war the US will do the same as in Iraq, they will try to make it more "WWII style", meaning heavy bombings until absolute surrender of the goverment.</p>

<p>but then again, this question is so... unrealistic, so you can just dismiss all I just said. ask this about Iran and it might be a bit more realistic, perhaps not even then.</p>

6

<p>yes, yes, ok, no but a lot would, no, no</p>

7

<p>
[quote]
And why are you treating China as the enemy? Most people in China like the US, they just don't agree with US foreign policy.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Laf. The Chinese people have nowhere near the number of freedoms we have in the west; how could assert you know what they "think", then?</p>

<p>Capitalism is slowly but surely permeating through their borders from both Western influence and internal decay of their former socialist institutions. </p>

<p>With more and more "economic" freedom (I hate dubing any freedom in any category because it falsely promotes the notion that you can have "part" of your freedoms while safely giving up your "other" freedoms, excluding of course the basic freedoms we give up in the social contract), the Chinese people are beginning to crave more and more liberty.</p>

8

<p>^^^What do you know about China? Have you ever been there? </p>

<p>"Nowhere near the number of freedoms"- that's not true. Not true at all. Is that something you whipped up from your textbook or something? What gives you the ability to judge how "free" they are? Stop this crap about social contracts and stuff, it may seem sophisticated and learned, but you don't know what you are talking about.</p>

<p>And how do I assert what Chinese people think? Because I lived there for almost 7 years, much of my family is there, and I try to visit every year. And no, they aren't in fear of the government, they aren't repressed and persecuted, the police don't go about dragging dissidents away to death camps... there's really not much of a noticeable difference between the way we live here in America and the way they live in China in terms of how "free" they are. When I go visit, I don't feel oppressed... you make it seem like China's some enormous prison or something, it's not. I think I know a little about what they think, okay?</p>

<p>And BTW, capitalism is not "slowly" permeating through the borders, China has already been capitalized since Deng Xiaoping's reforms in the 1980's(the Four Modernizations) Its socialist institutions have already been dead or defunct for the last decade or so. It's a capitalist state ruled by the Communist party. Basically everything has been privatized, it can hardly be called a "socialist state" anymore. It's not "slowly but surely", it's already happened.</p>

9

<p>
[quote]
there's really not much of a noticeable difference between the way we live here in America and the way they live in China in terms of how "free" they are. When I go visit, I don't feel oppressed... you make it seem like China's some enormous prison or something, it's not. I think I know a little about what they think, okay?

[/quote]
I agree. I was also born in China, and I'm actually boarding a plane to visit China again in about 72 hours...</p>

<p>Lots of people in America are misinformed by the media and other "authorities" about the level of China's governmental oppression. When they think of a communist government, they immediately assume it's like Stalin's Russia, where people were randomly killed and their possessions randomly seized. It's nothing like that at all in modern China. </p>

<p>Part of the problem is that Chinese officials absolutely hate it when other world leaders try to tell them what to do. It makes them furious when Americans assume that they've got this whole "government" thing figured out, and try to impose their western ideals on the entirely different eastern culture. It makes China look worse in the eyes of the international community when they stubbornly refuse America's insistence on increasing human rights, when in reality increased human rights already exist in China. The officials just don't want to seem like they're caving in to American demands.</p>

<p>
[quote]
Even though china has 1Billion citizens, large % of those are (according to that I've heard - not saying it's a fact) located in the coutry sides and aren't "as modern" as the city people, therefore narrowing down the Billion people to something like 500million, closer to the 300 million of the US.

[/quote]
That's not true. I don't know the numbers off the top of my head, but the overwhelming majority of China's 1.2 bilion citizens lives in large industrialized cities or suburbs near the eastern coast. There are quite a few farmers, but their numbers are dwarfed by those living in the cities.</p>

10

<p>Just a quick note: 50 years ago, much more of China's population existed as rural farmers. However, in the latter half of the 20th century, a large percentage of the population has shifted from rural to urban, and this trend is continuing at a very rapid rate in the 21st century.</p>

11

<ol>
<li><p>Can the U.S. invade China in the first place?
A. Yes. The US could wipe out the Chinese navy and bombard the mainland into submission. However, long before China was softened up enough for an invasion, the government would have the opportunity to launch missiles at any target of value to the US.</p></li>
<li><p>Are America's technological and firepower advantages helpful in the long run against 1 billion people?
A. Yes. However, China also has the technology and firepower to kill billions. So does every major nation in this psycotically insane world.</p></li>
<li><p>How effective would U.S. airpower be?
A. Tragically effective.</p></li>
<li><p>Is it safe to say every Chinese citizen would fight?
A. Very few would fight. Read the book "The Wealth and Poverty of Nations." Authoritarian governments are brittle due to the fact that the poeple are more likely to welcome a change of despots, because power might be rearranged to the benefit of some of the people. While this factor may not be as extreme in China, it is still a factor.</p></li>
<li><p>Can the U.S. hold up against a modern military supported by guerrilla warfare?
A. Did it in Vietnam?</p></li>
<li><p>Any other thoughts?
A. There will never be a conventional war between the US and China, because (a) the two countries are economically interdependant and (b) if things do go down the toilet, why fight a conventional war when you have nukes?</p></li>
</ol>

<p>Also, does anyone know of any tactics or warplans the U.S. has in store regarding China?
A. I'm sure that all of our nuclear targets are in a little lockbox in the Pentagon. Vice versa in Beijing.</p>

12

<p>It's like the cold war all over again. It will never get hot because both sides have nukes and effective long range missiles to carry them. Any invasion, no matter how small it were, would prompt a full retaliation of nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons have the ability to destroy the world hundreds of times over, yet interestingly they also have the ability to deter world war from ever getting hot again. Here is an interesting article that I posted in another thread:
<a href="http://news.ft.com/cms/s/28cfe55a-f4a7-11d9-9dd1-00000e2511c8.html%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://news.ft.com/cms/s/28cfe55a-f4a7-11d9-9dd1-00000e2511c8.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>But... just hypothetically...
Conventional war: U.S. would pwn China completely
Nuclear war: U.S. would be better off, I guess, because we are more spread out (although it doesn't seem like it) than the Chinese. Also we have trident-missile-carrying subs all around China, so our nukes would definitely hit first. And I hope to god we have a nuke defense system in place (not star wars exactly, but a similar idea)</p>

13

<p>Nuclear war would just mess up everything. Why people think of it as a possibility just blows my mind. IF one bomb was dropped many others would follow and this planet would become useless. Regardless of whatever people think of the nuclear bomb technology and the possible outcome of a nuclear war, if it did happen it would the very end of humanity. Not much doubt about it.</p>

14

<p>Well this seems to be a pretty interesting debate (although some of you are taking it to far BY TYPING IN CAPS AND SHOUTING). Anyway, here are my views on the matter:</p>

<hr>

<h2>Alliances</h2>

<p>U.S.: Britain, Israel, (Spain?), (France? Doubtful, remember "Freedom Fries"?)
China: Russia, North Korea</p>

<p>Let's review the power of the allies now. Let us subtract Spain and France for now b/c I'm not sure about them.</p>

<p>Britain: As far as Britain goes, their power has been greatly reduced due to the absence of their empire. Stranded on their island, Britain may be powerful but without U.S. assistance China by itself can dominate its ex-conquerer.</p>

<p>Israel: A country still in development. It lacks the size and power to really pose a threat to China. However, do realize that the J10 Fighter built in China was aided by Israel. The chances of Israel going to war with China are low.</p>

<p>Now for the "Eastern" side:</p>

<p>Russia: Although they have lost a bit of power at the collapse of the Soviet Union, they are still a formidable enemy today. Nearly on par with the U.S. and holding vast amounts of territory, Russia may be one to reckon with.</p>

<p>North Korea: The Koreans are known for their tunnel network. Read up on North Korea, they are capable of taking on the U.S. They've taken many measures to ensure that they can somehow defeat the U.S. Much of the U.S.'s technology is negated as far as NK goes (E-Bomb: they limit their use of electronic devices, air: they spend a lot of time in tunnels, etc.). Realize that NK is willing to take on the U.S. alone without the help of allies and from what I've read they are capable of it, but the outcome is too early to determine as of now.</p>

<hr>

<h2>Strengths</h2>

<p>US: Air, nukes, technology
China: Land area, population, largest military, less political problems</p>

<p>Realize that both countries are economic buffs so I don't really think that either side has an advantage here.</p>

<p>Due realize that although the U.S. has a slight advantage in technology, the Chinese are not far behind. They are assisted by Russia and also have spy satellites, average fighters, etc.</p>

<p>China also has less political problems as they don't try to go in and keep casualties at a minimum.</p>

<p>If this turns out to be a nuclear war, America will be sending more nukes. However, neither side will win. Russia has a huge supply of uranium and is capable of more nuclear destruction than the U.S. I doubt either side will risk a nuclear war though.</p>

<hr>

<h2>Unrealistic Arguments</h2>

<p>Just thought I would address some of the unrealistic arguments circulating here.</p>

<ol>
<li><p>China will not draft 1 billion people out of it's 1.3 billion population. Yes they are underequipped, but during wartime the money they gain will go more to the military rather than anything else. China is one of the strongest economies, it can afford to stick a gun in every man's hand whether you realize it or not.</p></li>
<li><p>The US will not risk a nuke war. In fact, neither side will. Even if they are losing, their allies will pressure them not to send nukes. Why? Because if they send nukes not only will they be nuked back, but their allies will be stuck in the nuclear situation as well.</p></li>
<li><p>The US does have nuclear defense but don't expect that to protect you. The SDI Defense (might not even exist yet, haven't been catching up on this) is costly and I believe it is only situated in Washington D.C. as of now. Perhaps the SDI Defense is also present in government/military properties but they aren't going to protect your life.</p></li>
<li><p>Rich as the U.S. may be, a lot of it has been wasted on the past two wars. You do realize that the Daisy Cutter bomb cost us tons of money and missed Osama right? Deployment of B2 Stealth Bombers and such bombs are going to drown our treasury quick.</p></li>
<li><p>U.S. might have the best technology, but to make use of such technology will require a lot of money. I recall a post in these forums about John Titor predicting a civil war. If citizens are overtaxed, civil unrest/war is a possibility.</p></li>
<li><p>The overall population of China resent the U.S. more than the general U.S. population resent China. Conclusion? Chinese soldiers will possibly have better morale (also include the fact that morale will be boosted if they are defending their land).</p></li>
</ol>

<p>Might have missed some factors, but I was just clearing up some ideas there. Sorry if they weren't mentioned and I decided to "clear it up," but that's all the more information you're able to consider lol.</p>

<hr>

<h2>Possibilities</h2>

<ol>
<li><p>There won't be a war. Neither side wants nukes sent at them. Even if China has less nukes, I'd say it has about 200 nukes now. It does not take 200 nukes to scare or demoralize your enemy.</p></li>
<li><p>China can conquer all of Asia if intimidated to take more land in the event land is lost. The only country able to compete with China in population is India. You think people in China are living in poverty? Realistically they are not and their living conditions aren't much worse compared to the US. There are a bit more homeless over there than in the US but I can assure you that living in China with the many Chinese restaurants everywhere is not "poverty." India, on the other hand, is pretty much a country where many suffer. China can dominate India with ease. Once the Asian countries and India have been dominated, the push through the M. East is pretty easy due to all the chaos revolving around there. Western Europe might be able to take them on but it would be like taking on Hitler during the early stages of WW2 with an extra ally (NK).</p></li>
<li><p>Both sides would be weakened. Especially if they do in fact use nukes. Then even a barbarian horde armed with wooden sticks can take over either side.</p></li>
</ol>

<p>Well I'm just providing some info. Thanks for reading.</p>

15

<p>USA>CHINA</p>

<p>right?</p>

16

<p>I get the idea that many of you analyzing this "potential" war are treating this more like a scenario from a video game than like a real-life situation.</p>

<p>
[quote]
USA>CHINA</p>

<p>right?

[/quote]
Wrong. Don't simplify it like that.</p>

17

<p>also: i think we need a new regime in the middle east...</p>

<p>saddam is wasted...nigga tried to kill muh father...fo' real.</p>

18

<p>and...i think that the us decided to invade the whole country of afghanistan so it could gain entrance to iraq..and like "practice"..cuz of environment and shiznat...rather than assassinating Bin Laden from the continental us...</p>

19

<p>mexican't know's how to roll like that...</p>

<p>USA > China</p>

<p>My reasoning (for JimmyEatWorld): Command and Conquer: Generals told me so...</p>

20

<p>The US and China will NOT fight a war. The people who think that way are either overly-protectionist or insane. China and US are two separate countries that go by their own ways. By the way, this is 2005; people in China are modern. </p>

<ol>
<li><p>Can the U.S. invade China in the first place?
Yes, they could. However, with very large causalities. Somewhere in the ballpark of a million. </p></li>
<li><p>Are America's technological and firepower advantages helpful in the long run against 1 billion people?
Yes. </p></li>
<li><p>How effective would U.S. airpower be?
Effective. We have not seen a “battle” between the US air force and that of other “industrialized” country. Nevertheless, I still think that the US will win. </p></li>
<li><p>Is it safe to say every Chinese citizen would fight?</p></li>
</ol>

<p>Yes. New sense nationalism is rising among the Chinese. Demonstrated in recent protests against Japan, the Chinese will defend their country.
5. Can the U.S. hold up against a modern military supported by guerrilla warfare?
China is a big place with 1.3 billion people. So no. </p>

<ol>
<li>Any other thoughts?
People, here is what might happen….IF there is a war….
Chinese military…
China has the largest and most advanced military in Asia. Russia is falling behind. China has 2350 nuclear weapons that is capable of hitting anywhere in the world. The Chinese spend about 50~70 billion dollar a year on military, much less than the US budget.
The Chinese navy is 300,000 men operation along with 60 destroyers and frigates, about 50 diesel and 6 nuclear submarines, and some 40 amphibious landing ship.
Should a war broke out (and this is highly unlikely), the Chinese navy can take out South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan in 48 hours. These countries are where major US air bases are located in Asia. Taiwan will be the first target since it is within range of four major Chinese air bases. 25 Chinese air force bases in the Shenyang and Beijing military region can and will hit Japan. The Chinese also has six different types of airplanes that can carry nuclear weapons.
The Chinese air force are quickly developing. Its J-10, J-12, and J-13 fighters are expected to enter service within the decade. Those fighters are among the best in the world.
Now, to the allies. Israel will not be an American against the Chinese because the China was one of few countries that actually allowed Jewish refugees into the country during WWII. In addition, Chinese help hide 20,000 Jewish refugees in the city of Shanghai during the war against the Japanese army. Israel made several arm dealings to the Chinese in recent years all over US objection. The entire OPEC are all-favorable of China. Most of the third countries will support China in a war. Russia will support China also. Why? Because the Chinese buys $3 billion worth of arm from Russia.
Can the Chinese “conquer” Asia?
Yes, they could but why would they want to? With a few exceptions, most Asian Countries held very favorable opinion of China.
There will not be a land invasion of any kind. Simply because the two countries are separate by an ocean.
Therefore, by some random chance there is war. I would expect the huge casualties and costs to both countries. The Chinese military is no pushover like the Iraq. The US military reign supreme in the world. So terrible things will happen. War will always be horrific and no one will be the victor. </li>
</ol>

<p>-PLEASE IGNORE ALL THE ERRORS….I DID THIS IN A HURRY….</p>

<p>And thanks for reading….</p>