Poor appreciation of acceptance chances.

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I agree Carnegie Mellon should never be assumed an automatic admission by anyone especially at the school of art or computer science. That is hubris. Certainly there could be a situation where most people with certain stats get admitted but I doubt every single person above a threshold of stats gets admitted every time especially if that hubris is carried across in the application. Any college with less the a 50% admission rate should never be taken for granted which mostly means that every applicant should apply to more then one safety and that they should not be devastated if they are wait listed or such.