Preliminary EA/ED Analysis: Record decline at Duke

<p>The numbers for the Class of 2011 early admission are slowly trickling in. </p>

<p>Despite the announcement by Harvard, Princeton, and UVA to abandon their early admissions, many schools reported record increases. However, not every school fared well: Duke seemed to have suffered considerably from the bad publicity generated by the egregious behavior of its athletes, if not from a long overdue realignment in the USNews rankings. With fewer than 1200 applicants, Duke is one of the few selective schools that could not fill its targeted freshman class through early applications. On the other hand, the same realignment at USNews seemed to have helped Chicago record a substantial increase. </p>

<p>HARVARD
Harvard, whose undergraduate college is the oldest higher- education institution in the U.S., will notify about 875 students today, or 22 percent of the 4,008 who applied early, that they've been accepted for the next academic year. That compares with 813, or 21 percent, accepted from 3,869 early applications in 2005, said Dean of Admissions William Fitzsimmons. That is a 3.5 percent increase over last year.
The early applicants who accept the offer will make up about 47 percent of the incoming class of 1,675, Fitzsimmons said. Harvard, based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, is eliminating the early admission program next year to attract more lower-income and minority students and to give applicants more time to compare financial aid packages</p>

<p>PRINCETON
Early Decision applications rose to the second-highest total since binding early admissions began more than a decade ago, Dean of Admission Janet Rapelye said yesterday. This is the last year of the University's early decision program.</p>

<p>The Admission Office has received 2,275 early applications for the Class of 2011, two percent more than the number of applications received last year and just short of the record 2,350 applications received in 2002 for the Class of 2007</p>

<p>YALE
The number dropped 13 percent at Yale University.</p>

<p>STANFORD
The number of early applications rose 5 percent at Stanford University.</p>

<p>MIT
The number of early applications rose 13% at MIT. </p>

<p>COLUMBIA
A record total of 2,428 students applied to Columbia College and the School of Engineering and Applied Science under Columbia's early decision program this year-an 8 percent increase over last year's figures. Of this year's early decision applicants, 24.4 percent were admitted, down from 26 percent in 2005.</p>

<p>PENN
The number dropped 2.5 percent at Penn.</p>

<p>DUKE
Duke's admit rate jumped from 31% to 39%, as application tumbled 20% from last year's number. </p>

<p>This year, 1,198 seniors applied for admission and 469 were admitted under Duke’s Early Decision program -- those students who know they want to attend Duke and commit to enroll at the university if they receive an offer of admission. The 1,198 applications received this year represent a decline from last year’s record of 1,496 applicants.</p>

<p>CHICAGO
The number of early applications rose 9%. </p>

<p>UVA
"U.Va. received 2,410 early decision applications this fall, compared with 2,311 a year ago. Over the past six years, the number of early decision applications has averaged 2,369. In addition to admitting 973 or 40 percent of the applicants, 1,131 students had their decisions deferred so that they will be part of the regular decision process; 306 students were denied admission.</p>

<p>"..if not from a long overdue realignment in the USNews rankings."</p>

<p>I'm not sure what that means.</p>

<p>Why did Yale drop 13% ?</p>

<p>There is already another thread about this. It mentioned Rice too.
Rice was down 14%. Why did Rice drop 14%</p>

<p><a href="http://the.ricethresher.org/news/200..._decision_down%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://the.ricethresher.org/news/200..._decision_down&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>There are a couple of theories on Yale's drop in early applicants. One is that the admit rate last year (lowest in Ivy history) scared off applicants who thought they'd have a better chance elsewhere. Another theory is that the good publicity Harvard and Princeton have received for their decision to drop early action/decision next year reflected negatively on Yale by comparison.</p>

<p>Or it could just be cyclical.</p>

<p>Clues? Yales' Ivy League-low 17.7 percent in 2010 and record increases in the past year. That is a very different probability from an almost 40% admit rate!</p>

<p>
[QUOTE]
I'm not sure what that means.

[/QUOTE]
Without looking up the rankings, it sounds like their rank on the US News list slipped despite having similar data. US News tweaks their methodology from time to time to ensure some movement on the list.</p>

<p>Thanks Dean J. But I think that Duke was still ranked in the top 8 this year, which is where it has always been with the US News rankings.</p>

<p>Duke was tied for 4th (2002) and 5th (2003-5) in US News' rankings in the past. The reporter may have seen the drop to 8th on this year's list as interesting enough to mention.</p>

<p>Was that a quote from a reporter? I didn't see any quotes or reference. Sorry. I thought it was an editorial comment from the poster.</p>

<p>In actuality, a 3 spot drop in a ranking (US News) that has been bashed so much on this site should be meaningless to most cc folks. :)</p>

<p>Top 10 is till top 10, remember?</p>

<p>"Duke seemed to have suffered considerably from the bad publicity generated by the egregious behavior of its athletes, if not from a long overdue realignment in the USNews rankings..."</p>

<p>Rather, I would hazard to guess that many prospective students and their parents were put off by the stance taken by the Duke administration and many of the professors there in response to the rape allegations. In addition, the prevalence of crime and corruption in Durham provide ample reason to find other (safer) alternatives.</p>

<p>In any event, I don't think Duke really cares about the rankings. I think their goal is to address local (i.e., Durham) concerns. That won't play well on the national stage. </p>

<p>Good news is that their endowment is huge---and they will need it to pay for financial aid and the revitalization of Durham. That is the way to compete for highly-qualified applicants.</p>

<p>
[quote]
I thought it was an editorial comment from the poster.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Yes, the comments were indeed mine and were meant to provide MY analysis on the numbers for the Class of 2011. It follows my posts of prior years. I do not expect everyone to agree with my conclusions. However, my conclusions are not based on idle speculation. </p>

<p>For instance, the impact of the tribulations of Lacrosse team is supported by the words of Christoph Guttentag, albeit from a different perspective: </p>

<p>
[quote]
Christoph Guttentag, dean of undergraduate admissions, said the decline could be attributed to a combination of causes, but cited media coverage of the lacrosse case as a likely contributing factor. </p>

<p>"We all would have been surprised if there had been no effect from any of the publicity," he said.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Source: <a href="http://www.dukechronicle.com/media/storage/paper884/news/2006/12/11/News/Duke-Admits.469.Sees.20.Decline.In.Early.Applications-2598581.shtml?norewrite200612151705&sourcedomain=www.dukechronicle.com%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.dukechronicle.com/media/storage/paper884/news/2006/12/11/News/Duke-Admits.469.Sees.20.Decline.In.Early.Applications-2598581.shtml?norewrite200612151705&sourcedomain=www.dukechronicle.com&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>As far as the changes in the most recent USNews, tracking the changes in ranking among the first ten listed institutions and the 2011 applications' numbers does reveal a not so surprising correlation.</p>

<p>As a parent I'd say that I would be entirely unmoved by reports of boorish behavior of a handful of students (of whatever description) as I would anticipate that any concentrated population of older teens and young adults would have its share of misbehaving louts. On the other hand, evidence that the local law enforcement is willing and able to prosecute apparently innocent college students in order to obtain political advantage would be enough to very strongly advise my kids to look elsewhere.</p>

<p>The idea that application at Duke have declined because of anything its athletes have done (other than fail to win games) is --literally-- laughable. That such applications have declined does, on the other hand, follow logically from the fact that it appears that Duke is located in the closest approximation of a Third World country in terms of law enforcement as you can hope to find here in the US. You can't hope to protect your kids from every hazard, especially when they leave home as young adults, but I'd be particularly concerned to have them go to a place where you have to worry about both criminals and the authorities.</p>

<p>xiggi-
What do you think will be the effect of Harvard, Princeton and UVA's decision to do away with ED on next years general application process for kids applying to the top tier schools?</p>

<p>"As a parent I'd say that I would be entirely unmoved by reports of boorish behavior of a handful of students.;</p>

<p>I would be QUITE moved by data from the school itself showing 29% of its student body were heavy (near daily) drinkers, (higher for whites and males) 9.9% had experienced an alcohol-related blackout in the previous month, and its effects on supposed "academic quality", especially when there are so many schools equally good or better (regardlesss of USNWR rankings) where that wasn't nearly the case.</p>

<p>Top 10? Recent events have shown an underbelly unrelated to the rape allegations, and I'd be quite surprised if they didn't have an impact (though, to be fair, there a lots of students and prospective students who like it the way it is.)</p>

<p>
[quote]
...many schools reported record increases...

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Good thing the Educatioin Conservancy is out there to help eliminate this obvious commercialization. :rolleyes:</p>

<p>"US News tweaks their methodology from time to time to ensure some movement on the list."</p>

<p>Movement just for the sake of movement? For the sake of magazine sales? Is there supposed be a difference between 4th, 5th or 8th? Forgive my cynicism.</p>

<p>Regarding the other post about drinking on campus - how many other schools even collect or report data on drinking? From numerous campus visits I learned that most colleges just say that underage drinking isn't a problem because it is illegal on campus, as if wishing makes it so.</p>

<p>"especially when there are so many schools equally good or better .."</p>

<p>Ahh, quality is in the eye of the beholder. ;)</p>

<p>It is amazing how these alleged accurate drinking statistics transcend oh so many threads...........and how schools that are so much better academically are better because no one drinks or joins frats or plays helmet sports.</p>