<p>"I am not a market guru, but I do hear Suze Orman say to NOT put money you will need in the next 10 years (and can't afford to lose) in the stock market."</p>
<p>Does she really say that? I think that the more common wisdom is 4-6 years.</p>
<p>"I live by those words and stay away from the market. Yes, I missed out on gains, but I didn't lose 30-40% of my savings either."</p>
<p>The secular bull market from 1982 to 2000 returned about 1,100% with the S&P 500. Identifying and timing secular markets can produce very nice gains. And you can short the market in a secular bear. It takes a lot of work to learn this stuff but it can be rewarding though nerve-wracking.</p>
<p>"There are safe investments (CDs) for those of us with no tolerance for risking capital."</p>
<p>The US dollar has lost a third of its value since around 2001 against a trade-weighted basket of foreign currency.</p>
<p>"I also will not invest money I can't lose in something that doesn't let you move it to safer investments whenever you want to. Most 529's have a money market option that pays a pittance of interest."</p>
<p>even at 4-6 years, that means, at the latest, when you child starts HS, ALL money saved for college should be OUT of the stock market.</p>
<p>In the early 80's, my money market was racking up double digit returns (of course I was in my 20's and didn't have alot of $$ to save).</p>
<p>I KNOW I could make more money by investing in the stock market. But in 1989, 2 weeks after my son was born (single parent from the minute I got pregnant, no child support EVER), I lost my job. I MADE ZERO in 1990. I collect unemployment and lived off savings and qualified for WIC (government program for poor mothers with small children) </p>
<p>1991 - halfway thru the year got a job for 13.5K. Not much to save there.
I didn't hit 40K until 2000. btw 2000-2007 I managed to save 50K, enough to pay my EFC out of pocket for ALL 4 years. I never had a nickel I was willing to risk of this money. I still don't.</p>
<p>"even at 4-6 years, that means, at the latest, when you child starts HS, ALL money saved for college should be OUT of the stock market."</p>
<p>It depends on the person.</p>
<p>"In the early 80's, my money market was racking up double digit returns (of course I was in my 20's and didn't have alot of $$ to save)."</p>
<p>These weren't real returns though and the tax rates for interest and dividends weren't favorable back then.</p>
<p>"I KNOW I could make more money by investing in the stock market. But in 1989, 2 weeks after my son was born (single parent from the minute I got pregnant, no child support EVER), I lost my job. I MADE ZERO in 1990. I collect unemployment and lived off savings and qualified for WIC (government program for poor mothers with small children)"</p>
<p>I think that a minimum stake in the stock market should be around $25K.</p>
<p>"1991 - halfway thru the year got a job for 13.5K. Not much to save there.
I didn't hit 40K until 2000. btw 2000-2007 I managed to save 50K, enough to pay my EFC out of pocket for ALL 4 years. I never had a nickel I was willing to risk of this money. I still don't."</p>
<p>The opposite of a secular bull is a secular bear which we appear to be in now. Some are doing quite well in this downturn.</p>
<p>BC - you are obviously an astute investor. If everyone was as good at the market as you, then everyone would have sold before the bottom dropped out. Hats off to you! Got any stock tips?</p>
<p>"then everyone would have sold before the bottom dropped out."</p>
<p>Then the bottom would have dropped out sooner.</p>
<p>Crashing or bear markets are a process. The market doesn't crash in one day. It takes a while. There was plenty of time to get out in the current decline. Many have been trained by many years of good market returns to stay fully invested, even through dips. That works in a secular bull market but works poorly in a secular bear. I'm just doing short-term trading looking for low-risk setups. No need to go for home-runs in this environment. In a bull market, you can take big risks because overall marketcaps are rising so you can get bailed out by a bad entry in a rising market.</p>
<p>In a bear market, the same people are fighting over a shrinking pie so making money out of a shrinking pie is harder. The smartest people I know are daytrading on low-risk setups and buying dividend stocks for the long-term. Lots of days, they just ignore the market as the low-risk setups aren't there.</p>
<p>everyone will remember the year of 2009 will be a disaster for the top private schools. What these college presidents are living in fear of right now is the Catch-22 situation they are in because of their high $48-50K/yr costs, and they will have to let in more "full paying" rich students because their endowments are down, but then congress (especially Senator Grassley of Iowa) will go after them for not being more generous with thier "tax exempt" endowments.....congress will mandate in a few years that colleges with large endowments spend at least 5% for FA or they will lose their tax exempt status.</p>
<p>We can also expect colleges to spend a lot less per student in the coming years. There may be less money for all the bells and whistles we have come to expect. I wonder how much the budgets will be cut for programs likes study abroad, student organized extracurriculars, etc. I wonder if, like the airlines, the meals will become more spartan, with a shift towards pay-as-you-go cafeteria plans.</p>
<p>My son worked in the tutoring center at his school this past semester and had plenty of business. I think that they monitor usage and will only staff to what they feel are proper levels. They took an almost 5% hit this past semester in state funding and will probably take a 10% hit in 2009. I do not see how they can take that big a hit without cutting a lot of services or raising tuition. I do not see how they can cut the tutoring center much as it's cheaper having other students provide tutoring than it is for professors to do so. From what I've seen, it appears that professors are teaching a bit more (number of classes), and they are advertising their classes via departmental email. I can't imagine fee-for-service tutoring services as it is such a basic college service but I've been shocked at a lot of things this year and guess we should be prepared for whatever happens.</p>
<p>So could it actually be easier to get into a top LAC during ED2 or RD? Wesleyan had a 40% increase in ED1... do you think they will follow the pattern of other LAC's and their RD( & ED2?) applicants will decrease?</p>
<p>How do you think this will affect applying ED2 to Wesleyan?</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I believe in saving for retirement but not in saving for college. Here in California the Cal State system has always provided a decent college education for less than the cost of sending a kid to a K-8 Catholic school. For me to consider a college affordable I must be able to pay for it out of CURRENT income or I won't bite.</p>
</blockquote>
<br>
<p>I think that's a marked cultural difference between Asian immigrants (well, not just Asians) and other minorities who don't have a culturally-elevated view of education (such as Latino immigrants.) I've seen working class immigrant families spend so much of their saved wealth on their children's education, that it jeopardizes the parents' ability to enter retirement with any financial safety. Sometimes it pays off, sometimes it doesn't, and it's devastating when it doesn't. Personally, I do not think any family should have to jeopardize its financial safety in order for their offspring to get a basic college education. </p>
<p>Does this philosophy extend to housing as well? In some areas of the country, an advanced degree holder (PhD, MBA, MD) could realistically buy a house and pay it off (on salary alone) within 3-4 years. If I threw my downpayment and the ~30% of my yearly AGI into housing, well hey, I could afford a little "box condo" in some shady part of Orange county, haha. And my income is well above the county median (not Irvine median, though, too many successfull well-doers there.)</p>
<p>But I digress...</p>
<p>I have a wild idea -- I just read about some lawyer debt program which allows attorneys to forgive part of their loan repayment (up to $40-50K total?) by committing to work for a public agency for 3 years. Maybe this sort of program could be expanded to include all college-grads. Students on FA (who have the university or state pay for their school) would enter a work commitment as part of the FA terms.</p>
<p>That way, there's still a perceived advantage for parents to pay for their offsprings education (no work commitment), rather than just spend/hide it and let the school/state pick up to the tab.</p>
<p>So, then maybe when the financial aid packages start rolling in at our house, the best reply would be "Oh, too much, maybe we better defer for a year?" And if the private schools are really anxious to "fill up all the seats on the plane" do you think they would come back with a more enhanced, more attractive, FA package? Something to think about.</p>
<p>So, my question to the group is this? What do you think happens to the transfer apps and acceptance rates for the fall of 2009? Sounds like public univ up and possibly private LAC's and the like down. Curious to hear the educated feedback. Will more transfer kids gets accepted into the Ivies and privates because more kids are leaving them to go to the public schools?</p>
<p><< I think that's a marked cultural difference between Asian immigrants (well, not just Asians) and other minorities who don't have a culturally-elevated view of education (such as Latino immigrants.) I've seen working class immigrant families spend so much of their saved wealth on their children's education, that it jeopardizes the parents' ability to enter retirement with any financial safety. Sometimes it pays off, sometimes it doesn't, and it's devastating when it doesn't. Personally, I do not think any family should have to jeopardize its financial safety in order for their offspring to get a basic college education. >> </p>
<p>In some cultures, the children are raised that they will take care of the parents in their old age. When latino parents spend their wealth on their children's education, many are likely expecting that child to take care of them later in life. My children's latino father (no I am not slamming latinos; there are wonderful things about the culture) believed in sending all of our spare money to his mother, which she spent on garage sales. He would not save for the kids college education (because it was free in his country, as if that mattered here) and would not compromise. We are no longer married.</p>
<p>My S just got his rejection to Rutgers today! eally, feeling his pain...not so much that he wanted to go there...bit, that he would have been accepted any other year....he goes to a highly competitive HS........lots of people up here taking ahit on Wall Street...we are still shaking our heads...his 529 lost 35%,,H and I both in education so we know undergraduate at RU would have worked just fine.......He'll probably get into very expensive school if they think our zip code matters.....now we wait some more.....</p>
<p><a href="mailto:jbjc@optonline.n">jbjc@optonline.n</a>, I am shocked. I assume from your other post that your son is a very high stat student. If that is the case, why the rejection? Isn't Rutgers a mostly "by the numbers school"? Didn't they even offer admission to one of the other campuses or do you need to apply directly to those (ie: Newark, Camden)? I don't get it. Did he take all of the required courses for admission?</p>
<p>It sounds like a lot of students are applying there because of the economy so that there are far more competitive students there. I expect to see that at more state schools and flagships.</p>
<p>BCEagle, in prior years you get into Rutgers instate with a 1200 and B average. I know plenty of kids who have gotten with lower stats than that. It is ridiculous for someone with stats for an Ivy school, if that is the case, not to get into Rutgers if they are instate.</p>
<p>Well it is what it is...he has moved on but, still has not told anyone yet...I can respect that.........I wrote admissions at RU just for a "learning momentt"..you know..what was the problem? I bet if I get arespnse it will be the canned answer..lots of qualified...blah,blah,blah......after a few days it really moves away form you....he has an interview w Clark and Brown..he really thinks they are just wasting his time...he's probably right....he rolls his eyes when I tell things are sometimes not meant to be....</p>