Probability Enquiry: Are my chances of acceptance great enough for JHU to be a safety

<p>As of this moment in time, my mind is set on Johns Hopkins; thus, I plan on applying to JHU ED. </p>

<p>Ostensibly, the rate of acceptance into Johns Hopkins ED is extremely high compared to other top research universities. However, this acceptance rate of ~40% does not apply to all ED applicants. Some applicants have a lower chance of being accepted due to lower statistics, while some applicants have a higher chance of being accepted due to higher statistics and research (I am part of the latter). </p>

<p>With that said, do you think the chances of my being accepted into JHU is greater than 90% (safety)? </p>

<p>As a junior, my GPA is down low, unweighted 3.88 and weighted 4.32. And my SAT is not above the Asian average either: 2380.</p>

<p>I am also the president of two clubs which are relevant to science and mathematics, and I am the founder of one of the two. I am also vice president of a club which assists in the publishment of a school magazine, but such an inferior role is clearly of no importance.</p>

<p>A number of extracurricular avocations are also at my hand, but I will list the one I most favor, that which is research. I am currently working under a professor at a lab, and I hope to publish a research paper sometime this year. </p>

<p>So. Do you think my chances of acceptance into JHU ED are great enough for me to avoid a sensation of perpetual and titillating panic through the year in which society call it the senior's? </p>

<p>If not, then please, state other options, other safeties, other universities in which undergraduates will easily be flooded with research opportunities and atmosphere of intellectual superiority.</p>

<p>You are fooling yourself if you think that Hopkins is a safety for you, or for anyone else for that matter. I know of many very highly qualified applicants who have not been offered admission, often for reasons I cannot fathom. The fact is that admission to Hopkins is a holistic approach, and since you cannot know much about the pool of applicants you will be competing against (it doesn’t even exist yet), one cannot accurately predict anyone’s admission chances. </p>

<p>A safety might be your state’s flagship university.</p>

<p>Hopkins, never a safety. Period.</p>

<p>Is that really true? DOes anyone know whether Johns Hopkins actually rejects many people with 2380? (even forgetting other factors?) I know HYPSM do for sure (H acceptance rate for 2400s is between 40 and 50%) but is that really true at Johns Hopkins?</p>

<p>Very high SAT scores combined with mediocre grades will often lead to a denial of admission because it suggests underachievement. Conversely, very high SAT scores combined with spectacular grades will usually lead to admission—but not always. I’m sure that Hopkins’ admission percentages for those in the second category are much higher than Harvard, but still not a sure thing. Hopkins may be a match for those candidates, but not a safety.</p>

<p>You can be certain that all of the kids who apply to HYPSM are applying to Hopkins too. If the applicant pools are largely the same, then the schools themselves are seeing the same thing in apps - great test scores, great grades, essays etc. </p>

<p>Just look at the stats profiles from last year and even look back at the old threads - there are countless laments of students who were WL’d/denied with great profiles… With 20,000 students applying naturally there is not room for everyone, especially in RD. I think two years ago there was a thread from a girl who got into Stanford and WL’d at Hopkins lamenting over the decision. </p>

<p>[Stats</a> Profile - Class of 2014](<a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/profiles/member_stat_view.html?user_id=323546]Stats”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/profiles/member_stat_view.html?user_id=323546)
[Stats</a> Profile - Class of 2014](<a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/profiles/member_stat_view.html?user_id=357957]Stats”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/profiles/member_stat_view.html?user_id=357957)
[Stats</a> Profile - Class of 2014](<a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/profiles/member_stat_view.html?user_id=357200]Stats”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/profiles/member_stat_view.html?user_id=357200)
[Stats</a> Profile - Class of 2014](<a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/profiles/member_stat_view.html?user_id=276897]Stats”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/profiles/member_stat_view.html?user_id=276897)</p>

<p>At that level, the SAT’s don’t matter and if the adcom’s like a student with a 2290 more than they like you and your 2380, you can bet they are going to offer the 2290 over the 2380. Naturally the higher your SAT’s the better the chances you have of getting in - BUT it’s not 100% linear.</p>

<p>I was talking about ED people, not RD.</p>

<p>Wealth of Info…those stats are a bit disconcerting. It truly is a crapshoot.
My son is looking at Dartmouth, Tufts, Cornell Human Ecology, Hopkins and Swarthmore. GPA is 4.38 W, ACT 35, SAT2 Math 800, SAT2 Physics 760, AP Stat 5, AP Lang 5, AP PhysicsB 5. Lots of EC…mostly ambulance and math and science clubs. Taking AP PhysicsC, AP Calc BC, AP Chem and AP Japanese this year. East coast, Pre-med but wants those liberal arts options because he loves many subjects. Any suggestions for a good fit safety school since it appears he may not get into any of these super selective schools he likes most?</p>

<p>I can’t find any evidence on here about ED but I imagine it’s only slightly less competitive in ED but I’m sure Hopkins places a very high value (rightfully) on kids for whom Hopkins is their first choice - the admit rate suggests so. </p>

<p>I also think that we often forget about the 3,000+ or so internationals who apply to these top schools every year - I can’t imagine the volume of applications and talent coming about of India, China, Taiwan, Japan, S. Korea, England, France, Philippines, etc. I’m sure 800M scores are just so normal to see from so many top international students. </p>

<p>to KnowsNothing = I would look for schools that have combined programs or agreements with some med schools (Penn State + Jefferson for example) or liberal arts colleges with strong reputations where his application may appear more unique (Reed, for example). Also keep your eye out for competitive Honors programs at state schools which provide small, enriching experiences for students. Also, University of Michigan is a classic example and they accept students VERY early as they are rolling - you can get a decision back quickly which is great for a safety!!</p>

<p>Thanks Wealth. We had some of those schools on radar but mostly too big and too far away.
Looking for northeast, <6000 undergrads, must offer study abroad to Japan. Dont want to hijack OP’s thread but if you have any good safety suggestions, much appreciated.
He is very close stat wise to LuciferLied</p>

<p>@Luciferlied: it’s great to hear that Hopkins is your first choice, but you have to realize that no score on earth will make Hopkins a safety, ED or not. You have a great shot with those credentials and you should enjoy senior year :slight_smile: Besides, Nov 1 to Dec 15 is just above a month so you will know soon enough after you turn in your app whether you got in. </p>

<p>Good luck and hope both of us get in ED :)</p>

<p>Hopkins ED is probably a low match for you given your scores, but certainly not a safety. (And why would you even want to consider the school to which you’re applying ED as your safety school anyway?)</p>

<p>I don’t have much to add beyond what’s been said, but I know for a fact that applicants with perfect SAT scores do in fact get rejected</p>

<p>Actually, Johns Hopkins’ ED acceptance rate of ~40% is not “extremely high compared to other top research universities”
Cornell ED = 37%
Duke ED = 38.3%
Northwestern ED = 39.7%
Vanderbilt ED = 36.2%</p>

<p>[Colleges</a> Where Applying Early Decision Helps - US News and World Report](<a href=“http://www.usnews.com/education/articles/2009/09/30/colleges-where-applying-early-decision-helps.html]Colleges”>http://www.usnews.com/education/articles/2009/09/30/colleges-where-applying-early-decision-helps.html)</p>

<p>By the way, look at JHU’s research dollars compared to those other top universities muahaha:</p>

<p><a href=“http://mup.asu.edu/research2009.pdf[/url]”>http://mup.asu.edu/research2009.pdf&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>Ahah, Anouchi, I’m not a senior yet. So perhaps we will see each other two years from now? I’m most likely to apply to JHU, Cornell, or Duke ED since they have such high ED admit rates (compared to other ivies/top schools). Anyhow, I’m not sure if I would “fit” at Hopkins, but at the moment it seems to be my top choice. Moving from the Bay Area to the East Bay is a drastic change, but I’m sure I’ll be able to adapt. The real question I have though is what research opportunities JHU has to offer that Cornell, MIT, Harvard, Berkeley, and UCLA lack.</p>

<p>^Strength in biomedical sciences and the interaction of biomed and social/humanities that the others lack. Biophysics to Public Health: largest amount of labs and $$</p>