Probability for getting into Stanford?

<p>Heyo! I'm an int'l student living in Taiwan in quite a competitive and close-knit school.
I understand that:
a) There's no formula for "getting into" Stanford, or a lot of colleges, really. It looks beyond grades and looks for individuals who truly shine. People with extremely high grades and who seem to be perfect can get rejected.
b) Every year, there's a randomness factor. Perhaps the college wants a tuba player. Or an outstanding football player. Maybe they don't need another math whiz. (I got this information from my teacher who graduated from Stanford; she said that bad luck can be a factor in admissions.)</p>

<p>Current grade: 11th</p>

<p>SAT I Score: I haven't taken the SAT yet, but plan to do so in November. Two sample scores from my mocks:
2290 - M:800 G:800 CR:690 [one of my early mocks]
2290 - M:790 G:750 CR:750 [one of my more recent mocks]</p>

<p>SAT II Scores:
Math II - 800
Physics - 800</p>

<p>AP Tests:
AP Physics B (5), AP Euro (4)
*History is one of my worst subjects and I absolutely loathe how my school requires three credits of history</p>

<p>**Format - Class: S1 Grade/S2 Grade</p>

<p>Freshman Year (heard this isn't taken into account and personally I don't think it's an important year for me):
History of Asia: A/A
Honors English 9: A+/A
Honors Geometry with Proof: A/A-
Honors Physics: A+/A+
PE/Health 9: A+/A+
Public Speaking Rhetoric and Debate: A+/A+
Spanish 1: A-/A
Symphonic Band: A+/A+</p>

<p>Sophomore Year:
AP European History: B-/A *
AP Physics B: A/A
Honors Calculus A: A/A **
Honors Chemistry: A+/A
Honors English 10: A-/A
Honors International Relations: A-/A
Spanish 2: A/A+
PE: A/A
<em>Started with a B- since I transitioned from a regular history class with a lax teacher to a strict AP teacher. Got a lot of C's on my tests - my multiple choice was absolutely abysmal and my essays horrendous. The next semester, I grasped most of the strategies and actually managed to get some top scores on my essays in the class.
*</em> Skipped Honors Algebra II over the summer. One month course.</p>

<p>Junior Year (currently one month into the year):
AP US History: Got a 79 on my first test, which was around the average score, maybe a bit higher. Maybe. Definitely an improvement from the C- on my first test last year in Euro.
AP Chemistry: Same teacher as last year; I'm doing pretty well.
AP Calculus BC: Currently an A+.
AP Computer Science: I'm doing pretty well. It's not very difficult at the moment.
IBHL English: We haven't done much, so I'm not sure how I'll fare in the future.
Honors Biology: I'm doing pretty well.
Honors Spanish 3: I'm doing fairly well.</p>

<p>Extra-curriculars:
I've been doing community work for a large orphanage club in our school. Mostly it's been technical stuff - I'm good at organizing things and like setting things up and selling things, so I help with organizing items, taking inventory, and selling things for the many sales we have throughout the year to raise money for various areas (i.e: victims of natural disasters/orphanages). I've been doing this for two years.</p>

<p>I did community work for a local orphanage for babies in my freshman year. We took care of the babies and played with them for about an hour on X day of the week. The next year they severely limited the number of people who could go and usually the list was filled with people I didn't know, so I left.</p>

<p>I did and am still doing community work for an elementary school on the south side of the island (I live in Taipei, which is in the far north). We teach English to the 5th and 6th* graders there by video chat and, during winter break and summer break, travel there to teach the students English in person (with a lot of fun activities). I was first introduced to this club in 8th grade (but it was a high school club), and then I officially joined in my freshman year. I've been in this club for about three years now, and it's actually something I don't want to leave. It's a part of me. It's a fascinating (and chaotic) process to plan and organize the lessons taught throughout the year, the trips to be made during the breaks, and the fun, interactive learning activities that we'll do during the visit. Problem is, I'm very worried that the club will be disbanded next year - we can't find enough people to keep the club alive for the next few years (in fact, the club will have no members by the end of 2016), and the number of students interested is rapidly diminishing. We haven't faced this problem before and my fellow officers and I are trying to promote this club once again.
* Elementary school here goes till 6th grade.</p>

<p>-- It's midnight and I need to go sleep; if you have any further questions about the next few details please let me know! --</p>

<p>I participate in Model United Nations. I've been in conferences in Taiwan and Qatar, and will be attending one of the more high-level conferences our school has to offer this year. What I particularly like about the club is the interactions between delegates who represent different countries and actually are from different countries - this was especially prevalent in the Qatar conference, where I met dozens of delegates from different nations around the world.</p>

<p>I practice Extemporaneous Speaking and have tried out for the team last year. I was part of the research team in my freshman year, and was an alternate for the school team in my sophomore year. I'm hoping to get into the school team this year. What I particularly like about the club is the intensity of the preparation - 30 minutes to look up everything and give up a seven minute speech! It sounds weird but it's fun and gives me an adrenaline rush (unless, of course, it's a topic that I'm completely clueless about and forces me to stare at my screen blankly).</p>

<p>I'm in Student Government. As a member, I contribute ideas for major events throughout the school year and help prepare for each of the three major events. We members help keep the events going. Unfortunately, I can't say I did much here since I'm not an officer. I'd apply to be one, but I'd have to sacrifice so many things (my commitments to the English-teaching club, MUN, and the orphanage club would probably be drastically limited) that I don't want to do it. Maybe it looks good on my app but it kind of destroys my life as I know it so... no.</p>

<p>I've interned under a professor, but it was mostly lessons on Fourier Transform (we didn't go too into depth about that since I didn't learn integration yet - we mostly applied it in coding) and the Python coding language.
Misc. clubs that I'm not incredibly involved with:
- A club for chemistry
- A club for coding applications
- A club for iGEM
- Probably more that haven't come to mind yet. Although, if I can't remember them now they're probably not very important...</p>

<p>I play a bit of tennis and I used to swim, but I've never been in a school varsity team. I'm also not sure how many hours have gone into community service. Do I have to estimate in my app?</p>

<p>Thanks for any feedback!</p>

<p>What is your actual GPA (unweighted)? (People reading this don’t want to crawl through the details and calculate it). And… a good football player is going to have a better chance than any of the other categories (tuba or math) – the football player is ‘hooked’, the others are just nice to have…</p>

<p>I don’t see you as a particularly outstanding candidate or a particularly terrible one. The acceptance rate is 5%. Your odds certainly don’t seem to be any better than that. Go ahead and plan to apply, but spend more time figuring out your match & safety schools, as the odds are much higher that you will end up attending one of those.</p>

<p>intparent, do I use first semester, second semester, or average grade between the two semesters?</p>

<p>I’ll use the GPA from both semesters in both years. </p>

<p>Freshman GPA: 3.9625
Sophomore GPA: 3.88125</p>

<p>Unless I’m mistaken you attend the Taipei American School in Taiwan? Problem with your app to Stanford is that there is nothing standing out, such as an international math Olympiad medal etc. which can be really problematic for international students. Stanford might admit a few students from Taiwan annually, and that might be taken up by all the genius kids on the Olympiad teams representing Taiwan. </p>