<p>For a probability guessing game, what would you say are the average percent likelihood of acceptance at one school would be in each category?
Safety: ?%
Match: ?%
Reach: ?%</p>
<p>Yes, yes, before any preaching starts, this is just a distraction and nothing scientific. I would assume that even a so-called Safety wouldn't be 100% just as a Reach wouldn't be 0% but am curious how close and what folks assign on all three probabilities.</p>
<p>Well idk, some people look for different things in schools. One might be bold enough to say something like Andover is a saftey idk. </p>
<p>Hey squashisawesome -
I suppose that’s a possibility in someone’s mind…Let me try the figures for your bold example:
Safety: 100%
Match: 100%
Reach: 99% but no such thing.</p>
<p>Here’s my guess for an average rather than one extreme:
Safety: 60%
Match: 40%
Reach: 20%</p>
<p>I was thinking more like a 20 reach 30 match and 40 safety. </p>
<p>Hmm - Your numbers, mrnephew, make me think my numbers might be optimistic. I’ll counter with revising mine to:
Safety: 50%
Match: 33%
Reach: 20%</p>
<p>Sounds good. I’d mostly agree, although in a perfect world, it would be 20 50 80. :)</p>
<p>It depends what your safety is. Some people on this forum treat Hotchkiss as a backup</p>
<p>Since the schools with higher admit rates usually have less money, my chances at these schools might be just as low as they are anywhere else because I need full FA.</p>
<p>Safety: 70%
Match: 45%
Reach: 20-25%</p>
<p>Yeah, the ones that treat Hotchkiss like a backup have already solved some global crisis.</p>
<p>Well all in perspective, someone might be rich where they could burn money for fun and just donate 300,000,000 dollars to hotchkiss just as a safety and then donate like 900,000,000 to a school that is their first choice. </p>
<p>Haha, that would indeed be interesting. What if that one person got rejected? Lol.</p>
<p>What constitutes a reach, match, safety is entirely dependent on the applicant’s profile. </p>
<p>For an applicant w very weak stats/ECs and no hook & needing a lot of FA, even a school w an 80% admit rate will be a reach.</p>
<p>For Malia Obama, every school is a safety.</p>
<p>safety: 80-100%
match 30-70%
reach 0-30%</p>