<p>Found this online: "America’s top colleges and universities are seeing a record number of applications this year, and we all know what that means: it’s tougher than ever to gain admission to the Harvards and Bowdoins of the world.</p>
<p>The Daily Beast used application and historical admit data to project the likely admission rates for select colleges and universities, numbers that won’t actually be determined for another month. Here are “the Beast’s” admit rate predictions for private liberal arts colleges:</p>
<p>I’m a little skeptical of these projections, except at the very top of the food chain. Harvard will get 75%+ of its admits. YPS will be just a bit below that. But at many of the LACs, there’s reason to think historical yields may not hold up. I’m not persuaded the increased numbers of applications at individual schools in the group of 10 LACs listed in post #1 indicate an increase in the absolute number of well-qualified applicants applying to one or more schools in this group. More likely, some sizable share of the increase experienced by individual schools is the result of a similar number of qualified applicants as in the past applying, on average, to a larger number of schools. If that’s right, there are still only so many qualified applicants to go around. If kids who in the past might have applied to 5 of these LACs are now applying to all 10, that just reduces the odds of any school to which they’re admitted actually landing them. Then each school would need to raise its admit rate in order to fill its entering class.</p>
<p>Go walk the dog. I mean it. This is the time of year (for the past five years that I’ve been following this stuff) that the news outlets frighten all the kiddies (by that I mean “parents”) with articles about how nobody but nobody has a hope of getting into any college anywhere. </p>
<p>Hopefully all here have followed the traditional, wise advice of applying to a range of colleges and there will be some options available for one’s dearly loved S or D. Meanwhile everyone slogs thorough March with BF/GF relationships fraying under the strain. Treat with chocolate. Lots of chocolate.</p>
<p>Olymom, Thank you so much for that. It’s crazy. My son is perfectly chill about everything but his father and I have a low level of anxiety…what if he doesn’t get in anywhere?! what if we don’t get enough financial aid?!..and so forth.</p>
<p>Our son told us after he finished his applications that we were forbidden from mentioning college to him until his letters arrived. So, we’ve been mum, but I read this articles and others like it and they make me crazy. Back in the day when I was applying to colleges my son would have been a lock at most Ivies. But in this current market he only applied to one Ivy (Cornell, the “easiest” to get into ??) and I don’t even think it’s a possibility, frankly. He only applied to 6 colleges total and I am anxious that he’ll get in nowhere. Luckily our son has his head on straight and has a plan if no school accepts him (he has an offer to work in a research lab.) Still, his dad and I are nervous. </p>
<p>So, while I can’t walk a dog, and I don’t think the cat would appreciate being dragged around on a leash, I will take a breath and know that all will work out just fine. Thanks.</p>
<p>i think the estimate about bowdoin’s admit rate is not solely based upon an increase in applicant number, but also the abnormally high yield last year and the subsequent overenrollment of the class of 2014. </p>
<p>to bclintok’s point, because LACs garner relatively few applicants anyway (overall, 6500 students applied to bowdoin this year), it is still possible to increase the overall number of applicants beyond what might result from overlapping applications (single applicants applying to a greater number of schools). there is evidence that at bowdoin an increase in applications may also be the result of an increase in new applicants: over the past decade, the number of high schools represented in the applicant pool has increased by over 1,000. i assume this is similar at the other LACs as well. this is not to say that the increase is not also caused by greater numbers of overlapping applicants, but instead to suggest that LACs have greater latitude to increase their applicant pools with new applicants because their national footprints are typically a fraction of those of larger universities and are far from saturated.</p>
<p>Great post. Thanks for that. There are times someone needs to say this and it really does make a difference to those going through the anxiety…:)</p>
<p>Olymom – So true. These are the times that try parents’ souls. But we are really at the point where there’s not a darn thing we can do about it. It is difficult to accept that our kids’ fates do not rest with us anymore (if they ever did). Now is the time to take up knitting, kick-boxing, or becoming obsessed with some tv show or other – tryThe Tudors.</p>
<p>And we will see lots of articles and press about this stuff right now. All in an attempt to get clicks. There’s one on Slate right now about how skewed Male to Female ratios at colleges mean greater amounts of casual sex. Don’t click on it: It’s just an example! </p>
<p>Look past all that. Have faith in your kid. It seems to me the ones with the kids who look the best in their applications are the ones who worry the most. </p>
<p>KayF – I’ve listened to a lot of AO’s and read articles from them even more. They do not toss apps just because the ‘score’ may be lower than they like. They realize that not everyone takes tests well, that there are a lot of factors that come into play on test day, and they are also aware that girls just don’t do as well as boys on those tests, even though they may have greater ‘college’ skills than the boys. All the SAT does is measure a certain set of skills. AO’s look at the whole package…or so they claim. </p>
<p>Girls v. boys – Boys do better on an SAT test 66% of the time…yet girls graduate from college in greater numbers than boys. Something strange going on there which may (someday) change the SAT-focused college testing. More schools are dropping SAT requirements every year.</p>
<p>You are most welcome. Remember the old joke about what is 2+2?
A math teacher says 2 + 2 = 4
An engineer says “precisely 2 plus precisely 2 = precisely 4”
A statistician says “What do you want it to be?”</p>
<p>Keep in mind that there is prestige at stake in these numbers. So you can count that colleges massage the numbers in many ways to lower their acceptance numbers. </p>
<p>Case in point, our S2 is a bright, darling kid. He will do well in life. However, high school had some rough spots and during the college application season his GPA was 3.3 Not shabby but I knew (from my time here) that the darling kid was not headed to Harvard. But what does Harvard do? They send him a beautiful application package. Great paper. Embossed seal. Very snazzy. Very ego inflating. It would be easy for a student/family to get excited and spend $70 to apply. By getting the 3.3’s to apply, they up the application pool and lower the admission rate. </p>
<p>We had a conversation about admission statistics and Darling S cheerfully tossed the package into the recycle bin and went on with life. </p>
<p>Instead of hyperventilating, know, in your hearts, that some schools sent out a lot of fancy letters last fall. Know and tell your kid that he/she is a great kid. That is true whether or not an admissions department is playing with numbers.</p>
<p>I should add that when we first started five years ago, the high GPA S1 had not gotten the glossy invite from Harvard, so I knew it was a new technique that particular college had added. </p>
<p>There’s probably a new twist added every year. For instance, a college could announce a new scholarship/program for (insert sub group here) and then flood that category of student with mailings. Only one or a few would get into the new deal, but applications could rise (with appropriate marketing). </p>
<p>I would not be at all surprised to find that shrewd marketing is behind much of the past decade’s increase in applications. The student body of applicants was at it’s largest with the high school class of 2008. The actual number of HS senior teens in the country has been dropping since then. Keep up hope!</p>
<p>I agree with Olymom, marketing campaigns have a lot to do with the increase in college applications. Some schools will even entice you with a free application. The common application also makes it easier to apply to several colleges with virtually the same effort a one. My daughter applied to over ten schools and that was not unusual at her school.</p>
<p>I wish these schools would spend the money on student aid or reducing the coast of attendance instead of filling the landfills with all this garbage. My daughter has gotten obscene amounts of mail for the past two years and not one fancy brochure has turned her head. She researched schools early and pretty much knew what she was looking for as a sophomore. It just seems like a huge waste of resources to me.</p>
<p>Ah, but who can explain fashion? Right now it is the fashion to sigh over low acceptance rates. Personally, I wish the fashionable numbers to sigh over would be 1) freshman retention rates and 2) four year graduation rates. </p>
<p>This is the month that CC readers have their own Oscars. Right now is the pre-ceremony hand wringing period. Who will “win”? Honestly, anyone who participates in a fine quality film production is a winner – but we have to do the drama thingy and wait for those envelopes to validate living. </p>