PSAT commended students Class of 2018

so my index is 212, and the cutoff last year is 209.
is my chance of getting commended big?

Thanks!!

If the commended score doesn’t jump four points then, yes, your chances will be 100% of being commended or higher.

212 would seem safe, but after experiencing the roller coaster of last year, I’d say nothing is certain. Best way to understand your chances would be for other posters to chime in with their scores and read up on what the prep experts are saying about the percentile tables this year.

What state do you live in?

Well I am in ohio.
Here is a link of the predicted commended cutoff for class of 2018. They predict it to be 207-211, but they also mention the volatility is high.
http://www.■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/national-merit-semifinalist-cutoffs/