<p>It's been @ 217 last couple years...is there a chance it will drop to 216?</p>
<p>Someone said posting the state percentiles would help...</p>
<p>my CR: 67 , 96%ile
my M : 80 , 99%ile
my W : 69 , 98%ile</p>
<p>I dont know how this will help, but can someone tell me the chance that the 217 will drop this year? Thanks.</p>
<p>Maaaybe.
I don't know.
I thought it was 214 just a couple of years ago?</p>
<p>It was 217 for 2006 and 2007.</p>
<p>Pred, the state percentiles help because knowing the national percentiles we know that the cut-off nationwide has to drop, because we know approximately in which percentile the cut-off necessarily falls. But without knowing your state percentiles, we can't tell you if the general tend of a lower score being a higher percentile than last year nationally applied to Texas, probably meaning a lower cut-off.</p>
<p>It looks like you're in the 97th percentile for Texas (am I correct)? If that's the case, there is no definite indicator that it will drop. In the more competitive states, only part of the 99th percentile for the state makes it. In less competitive states, parts of the 97th can make it. What percentile has 217 been in for the last couple years? This willl let us know how competitive the cut-off in Texas is. Does anyone know how competitive Texas is? If it's more competitive, I'm inclined to say that CR might keep you from making the cut-off (a 96th would in my state), but if it's less competitive, there is a chance that TX will follow the national curve and drop.</p>
<p>And someone told me that 212 used to be 98% last couple years, this year it became 99% as well (in TX).</p>
<p>No, my overall score says 99% on the score report for a 216.</p>
<p>99th for TX, or for the nation? It seems from your last post that TX is following the national trend and should go down one or more. It's less precise to guess these things than for the national cut-off, but what you've posted seems to indicate a downward drop.</p>
<p>Well, on my score report (the actual sheet of paper), right under where it says "216", it says 99%. I'm assuming that's state percentile.</p>
<p>That's actually national percentile. All of the percentiles on your sheet are national; on CB they are displayed as national but you can get state percentiles as well. If TX is a more competitive state, then even a national 99th doesn't guarentee making the cut-off. However, if TX is less competitive (if cut-off in pervious years has been in the 98th or 97th state percentiles), then a 99th on the national percentile scale should make the cut-off.</p>
<p>The best prediction is to check your overall state percentile, and then see what state percentile the cut-off has been in the last few years.</p>
<p>Where on CollegeBoard will it tell me the state cutoff for my Selection Index?</p>
<p>Ok if it helps, for my critical reading, my state % (as previously mentioned) is 96%ile, while national is 95%ile.</p>
<p>For math, its 99%ile for both state and national.</p>
<p>And for writing, its 98%ile state, 97%ile national.</p>
<p>So, my score in state is a higher %il than on the national level. Does this mean the TX cutoff will drop?</p>
<p>haha. WI is 210. so low</p>
<p>Pred, no, not necessarily, but it gives it a good chance. If your state overall percentile is in the same percentile or higher than the percentile the TX cut-off has been in for the last couple of years, it should drop. So, if the number 217 has been in the 98th percentile for Texas the last couple years, and this year your score is in the a.) 98th percentile for TX, then it might drop or b.) in the 99th percentile for TX, it almost certainly will.</p>
<p>cutoffs will drop since the writing score is lower this year</p>
<p>A, the national cut-off will drop, but that is no guarantee that the state cut-offs will. Most will, but some will hold or go up a tiny bit. State cut-offs operate independently of the national cut-off and do sometimes do the opposite of the national cut-off. If a re-centered writing curve= lower state cut-offs in all cases, the national and state percentiles would always be the same. For example, if a national percentile of 98 is a state percentile of 97, it could cost someone not to make the state cut-off because it would mean the state did not follow the national.</p>