<p>I'm worried that the cutoffs will go up this year.
My friend - 221 - was in 98%. I - 223 - was in 99%.
I'm told "Juniors need a high selectivity index score in the 99 percentile range. Not
all students in the 99 percentile range will be National Merit Semifinalists."
This language insinuates that to get semifinalist status, you must at least be in the 99%, and even that's not a guarantee. But looking at the historic Texas cutoffs, it's never breached 220.
Also, Texas cutoffs tend to be higher than the national average, so assuming these percentiles are based on the national data, does this mean that the Texas cutoff could be even higher than a supposed mark of 222?
How predictive are the percentiles in the score report?</p>
<p>What do you predict the cutoff for the PSAT to be, on average, and more specifically, in Texas?</p>
<p>I predict no higher than 221 in Texas. Probably more like 219 or 220.
Here is why. I am no statistician, but if you look at the scores for the last several years from the states with large #s taking the test, they do jump around by much. This doesn’t cut and paste well but maybe you can see what I mean. Check out Texas, California… They usually only go up or down by 1 or 2. No science involved in this, just my observation. I think you are a National Merit Semi-Finalist. Good job.</p>
<p>State 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Max Min
Alabama… 207-…211…209…211…210…208…209…209…212…212…207
Alaska 210 212 204 212 214 211 212 213 212 214 204
Arizona… 213…214…212…213…209…210…209…211…214…214…209
Arkansas 206+ 205 202 205 203 203 204 201 206 206 201
California… 222…223…220…221…219…218…217…218…219…223…217
Colorado 213 215 212 215 212 213 213 213 216 216 212
Connecticut… 220…221…218…220…219…218…218…217…221…221…217
Delaware 215- 218 215 217 215 219 219 219 219 219 215
Dist. of Col… 224+…224…221…223…223…221…221…223… …224…221
Florida 211 214 211 214 210 211 211 212 215 215 210
Georgia… 215…217…214…218…215…214…215…214…218…218…214
Hawaii 214 215 211 216 215 214 216 213 218 218 211
Idaho… 211+…211…207…211…208…209…208…204…207…211…204
Illinois 215 216 213 216 214 214 214 213 218 218 213
Indiana… 212…215…211…214…212…211…213…213… …215…211
International 224+ 224 221 223 223 221 221 223 224 221
Iowa… 207-…210…207…210…209…209…210…209… …210…207
Kansas 213 216 212 214 211 211 211 212 213 216 211
Kentucky… 210…211…208…212…208…209…209…208…212…212…208
Louisiana 208 209 209 209 210 207 208 206 209 210 206
Maine… 212…215…210…212…213…213…212…211…213…215…210
Maryland 221 223 219 221 220 221 220 221 223 223 219
Massachusetts. 223…224…221…223…223…221…221…223…224…224…221
Michigan 210 210 207 210 209 209 209 209 211 211 207
Minnesota… 215+…215…213…215…213…215…214…213…214…215…213
Mississippi 207+ 207 204 205 205 203 201 202 204 207 201
Missouri… 209-…213…210…213…210…211…213…211…214…214…209
Montana 206 207 203 209 208 204 208 207 209 203
Nebraska… 209…209…207…209…210…207…206…207… …210…206
Nevada 208 212 208 209 208 202 206 208 208 212 202
New Hampshire. 212…214…211…216…214…213…211…215…216…216…211
New Jersey 224+ 224 221 223 221 221 220 221 223 224 220
New Mexico… 210+…210…208…210…206…208…209…208… …210…206
New York 218 219 215 219 217 218 216 219 221 221 215
North Carolina 212-…215…213…217…214…214…215…214…215…217…212
North Dakota 201 204 200 204 202 202 201 202 204 200
Ohio… 213…215…212…214…212…211…213…211…215…215…211
Oklahoma 206- 210 206 209 206 207 208 207 207 210 206
Oregon… 217…218…213…216…215…213…213…213…215…218…213
Pennsylvania 216 217 214 215 216 214 213 214 217 217 213
Rhode Island… 212…216…211…213…211…217…213…212… …217…211
South Carolina 209 210 208 211 208 211 212 210 214 214 208
South Dakota… 203-…206…204…206…205…205…205…203… …206…203
Tennessee 212 212 210 214 212 213 213 213 217 217 210
Texas… 218…219…216…219…215…216…215…215…217…219…215
Utah 208+ 208 205 208 203 206 203 202 208 202
Vermont… 213…217…214…217…212…213…213…216… …217…212
Virginia 219 222 217 220 218 218 219 217 220 222 217
Washington… 219…220…216…220…218…217…217…215…219…220…215
West Virginia 201 203 200 204 202 203 203 200 206 204 200
Wisconsin… 208…210…207…209…209…207…210…208…211…211…207</p>
<h2>Wyoming 204+ 203 200 204 202 201 201 200 204 200</h2>
<p>State 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Max Min
AVERAGE 212.4 214 210.8 213.6 211.9 211.6 211.75 211.5 214.7 209.9 AVG
MEDIAN 212 214.5 211 214 212 211 212.5 212 215 210.5 MED
MAXIMUM 224 224 221 223 223 221 221 223 224 221 MAX
MINIMUM 201 203 200 204 202 201 201 200 204 200 MIN</p>