@MichiganIR I would not but too much stock in Prep Scholars predictions our local prep center is predicting higher cut offs or our state than PrepScholar but it’s all guess work until September
Does anybody know if the scores come out today at midnight or tomorrow at 4AM?
Was one of the lucky ones to have seen scores yesterday. Assuming those scores are genuine, and thanks to SammieB for providing the formula, I think I know my daughter’s index (I did not see an index score yesterday - was only able to view the scores for a minute before they disappeared). My daughter scored a 740 in math (-5), and a 740 in verbal (-1 reading, -2 writing although it is possible I have those mixed up). So using the formula SammieB provided, I came up with a 222.
DD DID receive a TASP email although she also scored fairly well last year (211).
mghype, Those scores are probably good enough for NMSF cutoff even in tougher states. Congrats.
Prehaps @londondad was refering to the many posts on CC like #1347 in this thread
There are entire threads on CC about how to game the old SAT. The new SAT is a fresh start that should reward kids that are “naturally very smart and a good test taker” over those who prep obessively.
As concerns NMSC, I believe that the top 1% of PSAT test takers become semifinalists. They take 16,000 semifinalists out of a pool of 1.5 million test takers.
Therefore, if your PSAT score puts you in the 99th percentile overall, can’t you reasonably assume that you made National Merit? The only time this might not be true is in states like Massachusetts that have ridiculously high cutoffs.
This seems too obvious, though.
@mghyps : My score is 1470 too. My index score is 220. Well, are index scores different with sections or states?
Live in CA
@Cornell, not really. This is because national percentile differs from top 1% in each state. Also, for NMSC, they DOUBLE verbal score, so people who did well in verbal sections will benefit.
Reports are that 4.5 million people took the test, compared to the usual 3 million and change.
I assume that at least some of the additional people taking the test were juniors, so the
99th percentile for juniors could be 20,000 people or more.
The 99th percentile overall (including juniors, sophomores, freshmen, etc.) will be 45,000 people.
Does anyone know how many juniors took the test this year?
Doubling verbal score already gives advantage to students who grew up speaking, reading and writing in English for the purpose of NMSF selection.
Many states have (had) cuts higher than the 99th. The year my kid tested, the 99th percentile started at 213, and I count roughly 17 states that had higher cuts than that.
45,000 students is too large a number to support the hypothesis that you are NMSF if you scored in the top 1%. NMSC says 16,000 will be named NMSF, another 34,000 or so Commended. I don’t think those overall numbers are expected to change, are they?
Oops sorry @plotinus I didn’t read the rest - you are correct that there will be a smaller number than that who are juniors. But yeah, if the number is 20,000 as you are guesstimating then definitely for some states you’d have to be above the top 1% to qualify.
Carry on, folks!
@glassflowers lol I guess no one knows when scores are released tomorrow…
Regarding calculation of the index score: “(Beginning with the 2015 administration of the PSAT/NMSQT, Selection Index scores will be calculated by doubling the sum of the Reading, Writing and Language, and Math Test scores.)”
It looks to me that the verbal portion is no long weighted more than the math. Am I misunderstanding the commas in the above quote from the National Merit Scholarship website? http://www.nationalmerit.org/entering.php
@paulcord I’ve been looking at is as that math has always been 1/3 of the total score and “non math” 2/3. In the olden days when there were two sections only (Verbal, and Math) they doubled the verbal score. The past several years there have been three sections (reading, writing, math) and so math again was 1/3 and non-math (in this case the Reading and Writing sections) 2/3. This year the SAT combined two sections (reading and writing) into one score with math as the other, separate score so there was hope early on that the PSAT math would be weighted 50% of the total PSAT score and Selection Index. However, when CB released the calculation of the Selection Index it was obvious that Math again would count 1/3. It’s very confusing this year. While your composite score weights Math at 50%, your Selection Index weights it as 1/3. Hope that’s clear!
There are two verbal sections and only one math so it does favor the kids stronger in the verbal sections. Mine is likely to have maxed the math, he has gotten an 800 on the math on the SAT all three times he has taken it, but the verbal sections…yikes, he apparently speaks math and not english 
@mamelot, thanks. It will only be crystal clear when I see the scores, I guess! (well, in September really). I am just hoping to have some perspective when we finally see them!
@garyasho2 lol I really hope the scores are released before the school day starts
What time do scores come out?
I really hope I get like a near-perfect score so I know for sure I made national merit lol. I couldn’t possibly wait until September.
@MrAustere They always release scores at 1:55 AM PST…but idk this time around.