<p>Thank you for all of the analysis. What exactly is the definition of a commended scholar?</p>
<p>It’s the thing I didn’t get. Commended means you have to be among the top 55000 students, then you get a special line on your resume for making it 
Oh well…</p>
<p>ctmom2013: to clarify, although the topic of this thread was about making commended scholar, the discussion Damond3, RobD and I have been having is whether it might be possible to predict where the semi-finalist cutoffs will be for 2011 (based on publicly available data). Semi-finalists are the top 16,000, and slots are allocated among the states in accord with the number of HS graduates for the previous year. While there is one national cutoff for commended scholars, semi-finalist cutoffs differ from state to state and are difficult, if not impossible, to predict (but we are giving it go anyway).</p>
<p>OK Clapuma, that’s an interesting way to look at things. Using that set of numbers, then it seems that Florida & TX should have a bigger drop in cutoff than MA & CA this year because their # of students in the top range dropped in a larger percentage?</p>
<p>RobD: I think it’s fair to say that the odds that FL and TX will follow the national trend are greater than for MA and CA, but still good for all 4.</p>
<p>CTmom: I assume you are from CT. Here’s an analysis of that state:</p>
<p>Year avg # in top scoring range…NMSF cutoff (chg from prior year)</p>
<p>2011
300
[not released yet]
2010
365
220 (+1)
2009
402
219 (+1)
2008
295
218</p>
<p>As described in my post above, the national trend would have predicted each states NMSF cutoff to drop a point in 2009 and then jump 2 points in 2010. As you can see, CT went against both those trends (adding top scorers in 2009 and losing some in 2010), so the change in its cutoffs diverged slightly.</p>
<p>This year the national trend predicts a drop of 2 points. The state-level data suggests CT may have followed that national trend because it lost some top performers (nearly 18% of them). As with the other 4 high performing states, I see a lot of downward pressure on CTs cutoff this year.</p>
<p>Clapuma: that is exactly what I seem to be looking at. For example in my state, the number of students taking the test remained constant. With that in mind, my state has always had an obvious connection to the national trend. The percentage of students in my state scoring in the top range dropped 23% while the nation dropped 25%. With all other constants remaining equal, I am growing confident that Nevada has a good chance of dropping 2 points. Again, we don’t have it to a perfect science, but I think we are understanding the major points!</p>
<p>Thank you for your information Clapuma, You have cleared up my questions.</p>
<p>Damond3: I think you’re right. Nevada’s strange year was 2008, where they had that huge 4 point drop, while most of the rest of the country trended equal or slightly up. If you look at the state info, that’s not a surprise though because NV dropped from 47 in the top range to 25 in 2008 (or, including the 2 top ranges, from 141 to 103). </p>
<p>In 2009, the avg # in the top two ranges went up to 158, so you can perhaps see why NV went up 6 that year. They more than made up for the drop in the previous year. Nevada’s one of the more difficult states to predict because the number of students is so small that it causes more volatility. But, armed with a combination of the national and state level data, I think you can guess where the scores might headed for the year.</p>
<p>Clapuma: I found something interesting and wanted to run it by you.
For my state (Nevada) in 2009 the average # of scorers were as follows:
Top scoring range:47
2nd scoring range:93
The cutoff for this year was 206
For this year, the stats are strikingly similar
Top scoring range:40
2nd scoring range:98
Very similar and I think a good indicator
Edit* yet I look at 2008 PSAT and the average was 48 and 83 respectively with a cutoff of 208. My only guess is that the percent semi finalists in Nevada was lower OR As I compared the national percent to Nevada percent, Nevada performed extremely well (one of the best years in comparison to the nation)</p>
<p>The way I look at it is based on trend vs the national trend (rather than particular numbers in the top ranges for a year).</p>
<p>I’d include the top 2 scoring ranges for NV because its cutoff has been on the low end. It’s compared to the 98% cutoff nationally.</p>
<p>My data doesn’t match what’s in your post, but I’ll use my data for now and double check it later. Here’s what I have:</p>
<p>Yr…top ranges…NV cutoff (chg) [Natl trend for 98% cutoff]
2007…141…206
2008…103…202 (-4) [0]
2009…158…208 (+6) [0]
2010…135…209 (+1) [+2]
2011…137…TBD (TBD) [-2]</p>
<p>As you can see, the 98% cutoff was steady in ’08 and ’09, then went up 2 and back down two.</p>
<p>NV diverged from that, but you can see signs of the divergence in the top ranges (down 27% in ’08, up 53% in ’09, down 14% in ’10).</p>
<p>Even though NV went down slightly in ’10, it is not surprising that it still went up a point given that the natl trend was +2.</p>
<p>Since this year is pretty much even, I would expect NV to follow the natl trend and go down.</p>
<p>Thanks clapuma: I think the important thing to remember is that 207 would have qualified my S13 for Nevada based on national trend for the past 5 years. I just need to hope the trend lives on ;)</p>
<p>So… what do you guys think the commended cutoff will be? If it’s 200, then I will have only missed it by a single point :(</p>
<p>Chachaseeds: as calpuma noted earlier in the post (page 1) the national commended cutoff is estimated to be 200 with the limited information we have. I think the commended cutoff can be estimated alot more accurately than state cutoff. I think you may have a slight chance of 199, but I wouldn’t count on it. Still a great score !</p>
<p>Wow. I wish the commended was ever so slightly higher, so to not feel bad about the fact that just a single point would have gotten me commended…</p>
<p>I’m gonna sure collegeboard. They recognize black and Hispanic people for scores lower than commended, but not asians… wonder why :(</p>
<p>I somewhat agree. It’s completely unfair how some nationalities’ scores (regardless how low the average score is) are more lenient than others (like asians). </p>
<p>And not to be offensive or “hating” (as my school would call it) but why is there National Achievement® Scholarship Program only dedicated for African Americans? It’s completely unfair that they have more chances for scholarships! I’m not saying collegeboard should get rid of that program, I just think it should be opened to everyone or collegeoard should create a program for every nationalities.</p>
<p>I know… Asians should get the same rights as AA’s or Hispanics. Whites should too, in that case…</p>
<p>Either collegeboard is implying and conforming to the stereotype that Asians are smarter than AA’s or Hispanics by denying them benefits, or they are blatantly being discriminatory based on race…</p>
<p>You should think about long and hard before you label any special scholarship for students of African American descent to be “completely unfair.”</p>
<p><a href=“http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s0690.pdf[/url]”>http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s0690.pdf</a></p>
<p>It all depends if one thinks the argument “that because blacks + hispanics make less money, on avg, and less money = lower PSAT scores, so therefore they get extra benefits and lower cutoffs for recognition, and the minority who make more money (Asians) shouldn’t get lower cutoffs” is right or not.
Anyways, I’m just mad about missing the cutoff by one point. If I missed it by 3-4 points, I would’ve been like “pffft no regret” but the idea that getting ONE more question right, or even just omitting just one wrong answer would have pushed me to a 200+ makes me so angry :(</p>
<p>I understand your frustration, and I am not afraid to admit that I am 30 years old and still think back once in a while to near misses I had in high school. The only time I ever hit a ball in little league that had home run distance, the best outfielder in the league reached over the fence to catch it. I still think about that. It’s not the same as your PSAT situation, I know. The point is: I get it. </p>
<p>The argument you refer to is very political and this board isn’t the place for it, so if it’s fine with you I think we can let this drop. I just wanted to point out that there are broad, systemic reasons why some special scholarships exist, and it’s not to discriminate, or to be overtly unfair.</p>