PSU Schreyer Honors College Chances

The PSU Honors College is my first choice. What do you think my odds of acceptance are?

Stats:

GPA (9-11): 3.95/4.00 if A- is 3.67, otherwise 4.00/4.00
Rank: Top 2% of 800 (would be higher without band, an unweighted class at my school)

AP Classes Taken: US History, Calculus AB, World History, Statistics, Physics C
Current AP Classes AP English Language (School does not offer Lit), AP Economics Macro/Micro, AP Government, AP Calculus BC, AP Chemistry.
Senior Year Semester 1 GPA = 4.00 UW (All A and A+)

Essays:
1: I think it is relatively average, though I am not very good with the topic at hand.
2: Very Good
3: Very Good

Recs: 2 Excellent, 1 Good.

ECs: Band, Orchestra, Marching Band, Jazz Ensemble, National, Science, History, Math Honors Society, Youth Group Founder and Leader, Volunteer and started multiple book drives, Nationally Recognized Blog

Leadership: Math Honors Society Vice President, Lead Trombone in all School Ensembles, Youth Group Founder and Leader

No work experience (combination of cannot drive and big on volunteer work).

Summer Experience: PA Governor’s School for the Sciences, ASM Materials Science Camp Full Scholarship

Awards: Directors Award for Best HS Physics Research in PA, Tri-State Science Fair 2nd in Category, Best Materials Science Exhibit in Tri-State Science Fair, All-County Band Bass Trombone Soloist, Best Trombone Solo in Regional Jazz Festival.

Applied: November 23, Interview on January 3.

Number of other applicants from my school: 15-20, normally 3 or 4 accepted, but this year a good 6 competitive students from my school applying.

Nobody can really tell you that, considering the acceptance rate (minuscule) and the lack of clarity on what factors matter to them (they say essays are important and SATs aren’t, but their SAT range is very high).

I got accepted to Schreyer; acceptance seemed subjective though, probably based on essays.