Public Vs. Private

<p><a href="sakky:">quote</a>
why can't the undergrad programs at the flagship public schools be more careful in their admissions? After all, they're quite selective already. None of them pretends to offer anything near to "open access". So what's the harm in making them still more careful and selective, and in particular, to stop admitting students who are not going to graduate anyway, especially those who will flunk out?

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</p>

<p>Certain limitations are built in.</p>

<p>First, the prediction rate cannot be all that close to 100 percent. There will always be people who experience unpredictable medical problems, family emergencies, job opportunities at startups, transcript-destroying poker addictions, marriage and children.</p>

<p>Second, as long as the cost of publics is lower than academically comparable private schools, the graduation stakes are lower. Sunk costs are smaller if after a year or three at school, a student decides to do something else. This means that if an expensive school considers it acceptable to admit students they think have at most a 4 percent chance of dropping out, that's a comparable risk calculation to a public flagship using some (possibly much) higher number such as 6 or 10 or 30 percent chance of dropout, as the cutoff for admission.</p>

<p>Third, when personal or academic troubles arise, whether they lead to non-graduation is highly influenced by socioeconomics, which (again the price difference) disfavors the publics. It's not just money or the level of financial aid, but socioeconomics in a broad sense.</p>

<p>Fourth, to create drastically improved prediction models for graduation or academic performance, one probably would have to use data whose role in admissions is restricted: race, finances, gender, age, religion, and possibly much more. Proxies for these such as "redlining" by ZIP code may also be illegal.</p>

<p>Finally, the publics must have more open access than the elite privates, or face public outrage. (Graduate admissions are not an issue here, as the public considers a bachelor's degree enough for upward mobility.) If the public flagships never "take a chance" on some fraction of the candidates, that is contrary to popular ideals of openness and fairness; a substantial if imperfect chance to graduate will still be seen as outweighing the elevated risk of dropout.</p>

<p>Publics could not get their student faculty ratios down to the level seen at elite privates. They would not be able to maintain their state funding if they cut their numbers of students enough to try to achieve this. Even the attempt would result in replacement of the leaders of the university.</p>

<p>Public universities are fundamentally different in their funding and mission. This means they are different in the composition, priorities, and expectations of their student bodies. It is unreasonable to expect them to reproduce the experience or outcomes of the elite privates.</p>

<p>
[quote]
Certain limitations are built in.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>But then we have to ask why those limitations are built in.</p>

<p>
[quote]
First, the prediction rate cannot be all that close to 100 percent. There will always be people who experience unpredictable medical problems, family emergencies, job opportunities at startups, transcript-destroying poker addictions, marriage and children.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Of course! Nobody is asking for a perfect 100% rate. No school, not even the top privates, can do that. Michael Jordan didn't win every game he played in. </p>

<p>But just becaue Michael Jordan didn't win every game he played in didn't mean that he didn't try. No doubt, you will never reach 100%. But you can come closer. </p>

<p>
[quote]
Second, as long as the cost of publics is lower than academically comparable private schools, the graduation stakes are lower. Sunk costs are smaller if after a year or three at school, a student decides to do something else. This means that if an expensive school considers it acceptable to admit students they think have at most a 4 percent chance of dropping out, that's a comparable risk calculation to a public flagship using some (possibly much) higher number such as 6 or 10 or 30 percent chance of dropout, as the cutoff for admission

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Well, actually, I would argue that the opposite logic holds just as strongly, if not more. For example, to extend your example, in year 3, you only have 1 year left at a public school, but the cost of that public school is lower than at a private, then it doesn't take much more financial expense to finish that 4th year and graduate.</p>

<p>After all, you invoke the notion of sunk cost. However, from an economic standpoint, sunk costs are irrelevent for future decision making. It doesn't matter how much you've sunk in arriving at your present situation, because you can't go back in time and change your decisions. All that matters is deciding what the best thing to do going forward. So if you've already arrived at year 3, it doesn't matter how you got there - those costs are sunk. All that matters is what you are going to do now: plow on ahead to graduate, or not. </p>

<p>
[quote]
Third, when personal or academic troubles arise, whether they lead to non-graduation is highly influenced by socioeconomics, which (again the price difference) disfavors the publics. It's not just money or the level of financial aid, but socioeconomics in a broad sense.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>This is a point raised previously and I agree, so then the answer is to then either provide the proper support for these people, or simply not admit them. After all, think of it this way. Regarding these people with unfavorable socioeconomics, you're not doing them any favors by admitting them only to have them not graduate. These people already don't have a lot of money, and you want to take some of their money but not have them get a degree? They would be better off going to a different school from which they will get that degree. Like I said, it's better to graduate from San Jose State than drop out of Berkeley. </p>

<p>
[quote]
Fourth, to create drastically improved prediction models for graduation or academic performance, one probably would have to use data whose role in admissions is restricted: race, finances, gender, age, religion, and possibly much more. Proxies for these such as "redlining" by ZIP code may also be illegal.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>I never said to use metrics that are illegal. You would use metrics that are perfectly legal. Let's find out what the law does and does not permit, and then do everything we can within the law. </p>

<p>
[quote]
Finally, the publics must have more open access than the elite privates, or face public outrage. (Graduate admissions are not an issue here, as the public considers a bachelor's degree enough for upward mobility.) If the public flagships never "take a chance" on some fraction of the candidates, that is contrary to popular ideals of openness and fairness; a substantial if imperfect chance to graduate will still be seen as outweighing the elevated risk of dropout.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Again, I'm not sure that I buy this. Like I said, I would argue that, even for state residents, Berkeley is, right now, more selective than many of the top privates. Where's the outrage? If you're that selective already, what's wrong with more? </p>

<p>Besides, you can look at the situation the following way. Every person you admit that doesn't graduate has taken away a seat from somebody else that you rejected that potentially would have graduated. What about that outrage? </p>

<p>
[quote]
Publics could not get their student faculty ratios down to the level seen at elite privates. They would not be able to maintain their state funding if they cut their numbers of students enough to try to achieve this. Even the attempt would result in replacement of the leaders of the university.</p>

<p>Public universities are fundamentally different in their funding and mission. This means they are different in the composition, priorities, and expectations of their student bodies. It is unreasonable to expect them to reproduce the experience or outcomes of the elite privates.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>I've heard this argument numerous times before, and of course I agree, but only because the current situation is a social construct. After all, the public schools in foreign countries are often times the most selective schools in those countries. Oxford and Cambridge are by far the most prominent and selective schools in the UK, yet they are public. The University of Tokyo and Kyoto University are probably the most selective and easily the most prestigious of all schools in Japan, yet they are public. </p>

<p>So if you want to argue that US public schools are the way they are because of social history, then I obviously have no choice to agree. But what I am saying is that it didn't have to be that way. The US could have implemented public school systems similar to what other countries have. And in fact, as I pointed out, the US public universities do behave very much like foreign public universities as far as graduate programs are concerned. </p>

<p>But to tie this whole discussion together, the reason I entered this thread is to point out a disadvantage of public schools. Some people asked what are the pros and cons of public schools. Well, one of the cons is that the public schools are more 'dangerous' than the private schools in the sense that if you go to one, you are more likely to end up without a degree at all. Private schools are therefore a safer choice. Hence, if public schools refuse to fix their graduation problems, then that by itself is a reason to prefer to attend a private school.</p>

<p>
[quote]
Public schools are very aware of how students from particular high schools and even areas of the state do ad use this to adjust their admissions somewhat. OTOH they risk getting very bad publicity and perhaps a lawsuit if they go overboard in this direction--especially if it turns out that they admit fewer kids from minority high schools. The law takes a dim view of discriminating against individuals because their racial group has had a poor record in the past. And in many cases that is where your graduation rates suffer most--minority kids have much lower grad rates than white and most asian kids.

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</p>

<p>So then the answer to that would be to have the lawyers construct some legal safe harbor that would withstand litigation. Given the fact that most of these top public schools have elite law schools, I think something could be arranged.</p>

<p>Besides, look at it this way. You're not really advancing the state of any minorities by having them attend a school that they are not going to graduate from. They would be better off attending a lower school at which they will actually get a degree. Like I've always said, it's better to graduate from San Jose State than drop out or flunk out of Berkeley.</p>

<p>
[quote]
if you go to one, you are more likely to end up without a degree at all. Private schools are therefore a safer choice.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Not really. I think many people are arguing that the grad rates at publics are lower because of who attends. The relative likelihood of graduation for an individual student could be the same, or higher, for a public vs an elite private. the point is that privates enroll a student population that is highly likely to graduate. Send these same students to a public and they remain highly likely to graduate. The graduation rate difference arises because publics enroll some students who would not get into the privates, or at least not in any substantial numbers.</p>

<p>So for a given student who has the choice, going to an elite private vs public would not necessarily imply anything about graduation prospects.</p>

<p>i havn't read the 9 pages of this thread so my apologies if what i'm going to say has been said already.</p>

<p>the top publics are just as good as the top privates. Sure there more top privates than top publics, but one really will have a difficult time saying someone is going to get a noteworthily better education at harvard than at berkeley, michigan, or virginia. a student will receive a more prestigious degree, yes, but a better education? And once you get past the "super elites" like hypsm, do people really consider cornell, jhu, vanderbilt, etc. more prestigious than uva, berkeley, and michigan? not likely.</p>

<p>Once you move past the top schools and move into tier 3 and tier 4 schools, I think publics will offer a student a better opportunity.</p>

<p>
[quote]
Not really. I think many people are arguing that the grad rates at publics are lower because of who attends. The relative likelihood of graduation for an individual student could be the same, or higher, for a public vs an elite private. the point is that privates enroll a student population that is highly likely to graduate. Send these same students to a public and they remain highly likely to graduate. The graduation rate difference arises because publics enroll some students who would not get into the privates, or at least not in any substantial numbers.</p>

<p>So for a given student who has the choice, going to an elite private vs public would not necessarily imply anything about graduation prospects.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>I was waiting for somebody to come back with that. And no, this is not true, but for reasons I have yet to discuss on this thread, because I got bogged down in other matters.</p>

<p>And the answer is that it is STILL safer to attend top private schools rather than top public schools, even if you account for the difference in student quality. That's because public schools have far fewer mechanisms to help you to graduate. The philosophy of the private schools is that they are difficult to get into, but once you're in, they will help you to graduate. </p>

<p>As a case in point, while I can't prove this, at least anecdotally speaking, it is practically impossible to get an 'F' at a top private school. Even if you're the worst in your class, you'll still pass with, at very worst, a D. However, I can tell you that Berkeley profs will absolutely not hesitate at all to give you an F. Heck, some of them even seem to enjoy doing it. This is especially so with the Berkeley weeders, of which I have found no equivalent at the top private schools. </p>

<p>What makes the situation sad is that the weeders don't just snag the less capable students who probably shouldn't have been admitted anyway. If that's all that happened, then weeders wouldn't be so dangerous. What makes them dangerous is that they snag some good students too. Let's face it. Some otherwise-good students have problems coming in. They have problems adjusting to the pace of college. They have problems living away from home for the first time. But that doesn't matter when you're taking weeders. The profs don't care. You're having problems? Too bad, you're still going to be forced to survive the weeders anyway. If you can't, that's too bad for you. </p>

<p>What exacerbates the situation in the case of Berkeley and some other top public schools is that the ability to change majors is constricted. If you're doing poorly in Berkeley EECS, you can't just switch to some other easier major automatically. That other major has to agree to take you, but if you have poor grades in EECS, they probably won't take you. Switching from the College of Engineering to the College of Letters & Sciences basically requires at least a 3.0 GPA, and a LOT of Berkeley engineering students have nowhere near a 3.0. Hence, they get stuck in a major in which they are doing poorly and desperately want to leave. Unsurprisingly, many of them end up flunking out. </p>

<p>Lest you think this is just a hypothetical situation, let me say that this is precisely what happened to the guy I know who I referenced before. He came in to Berkeley EECS, and did poorly because he had adjustment problems (basically, he was homesick), yet because he was doing poorly, he couldn't get out of EECS. Hence, he ended up flunking out completely. I strongly suspect that if he had gone to Stanford or even MIT, he probably would have graduated. Maybe not with good grades, and maybe not even with an EECS degree, but at least he would have graduated. For example, at MIT, he probably would have found EECS too hard. Yet since MIT allows anybody to switch majors at anytime without restriction, he would have switched to some relatively easier major (i.e. Sloan management), and graduated. Probably not with top grades, but at least he would have a degree. In contrast, now that he went to Berkeley, he has no degree at all. Not only that, but his academic record is completely trashed.</p>

<p>Now, one might ask whether he would have gotten into Stanford or MIT in the first place. We'll never know, because he didn't apply, but consider this. He's a URM. He's the first from his family to go to college. Hence, given that, I think it's highly likely that he would have gotten into one of the top private schools. He just never applied because he didn't think he'd be able to afford it (as being the first from his family to go to college, he didn't have a good understanding of the financial aid system). But he obviously didn't end up saving any money in the long run, as he ended up flunking out of Berkeley. </p>

<p>
[quote]
but one really will have a difficult time saying someone is going to get a noteworthily better education at harvard than at berkeley, michigan, or virginia. a student will receive a more prestigious degree, yes, but a better education

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Let me put it to you this way. Again, to invoke the example of Berkeley. Many of the most popular majors at Berkeley are impacted, meaning that they're not available to everybody. You have to apply to declare these majors, and approval is not guaranteed. Hence, many Berkeley students end up in majors that they don't really want because they couldn't get into the major that they actually wanted. In contrast, at schools like HYPSM, you can choose any major you want, and switch majors at any time. </p>

<p>I would say that the choice of majoring in what you want to major in is a component of a better education.</p>

<p>Well, as you so clearly pointed out with your reference to the Bill of Rights earlier (and on a privately owned message-board, a novel application of that document!) it is indeed a free country, a country where no one holds guns to people's heads on message boards, and you can post however you want. As can I. And all who read the posts draw assumptions about us accordingly. </p>

<p>As for why Berkeley can't be more selective when it's already pretty selective, I've yammered about that earlier. To restate it, I think the concept of "access" still applies to selective flagship publics--it's just a different concept than we see at less-selective publics. It's the concept of having earned a shot. </p>

<p>I think people both inside of and outside higher ed can accept that selective publics are going to have to say no to a lot of people--but they feel there must be a place offered to people who have proved themselves exceptional in their academic and extracurricular accomplishments. They have earned their shot. Would people find it appropriate to the ethos of a public school to seek out and apply psychological and socioeconomic factors implicated in lower grades and dropout, factors previously unused in making admissions decisions at flagships, and use those to deny students who otherwise seem to have earned a fair shot? I can't help thinking that many on campus--and certainly off--would feel that this is too far a departure from the mission such schools generally embrace.</p>

<p>To me, this quote reflects the essential fallacy of your 30+ pages worth of expounding on this issue:</p>

<p>


</p>

<p>The problem is that you lump all public and all private schools. The generalizations you have made on numerous occasions are simply not applicable to all public, or private schools. You continue to ignore that all publics are not equal and that all privates are not equal in regard to graduation rates. I would also note that this statement is completely contrary to your statement in a recent post:</p>

<p>


.</p>

<p>The latter quote is also almost untirely inconsistent with what you have said throughout this thread.</p>

<p>I have tried to understand what it is you are trying to say, but have come to the conclusion that you are not even sure what your point is. If you aren't, how can you expect anyone else to be?</p>

<p>So, in summary the top privates--as many know--will not flunk anybody out and this is somehow a good thing. Talk about your pretzel logic. That's how we ended up with Bush as President. If only Yale had flunked him out we might have saved thousands of lives today.;-)</p>

<p>Now let's move on to other things.</p>

<p>Actually, I suppose might explain the difference in the attrition rates Sakky refers to. Perhaps it is not a problem with the admissions process at all, but rather the result of some private schools graduating students whether they deserve it or not.</p>

<p>Sakky, as informative and interesting as your posts are to read, I find myself sometimes just wishing that you wouldn't "chime in". No no, it's not about your right to the freedom of speech or the fact that I should simply close my eyes to your posts since I do actually like your posts. It's simply the fact that once you get involved with a particular discussion, the thread is basically done for in terms of seeing a bunch of different ideas from different posters, which would make a quite interesting read in regards to controversial topics like this one.</p>

<p>Anyways, just my two cents. Carry on.</p>

<p>sakky,</p>

<p>so your argument is that top private schools are easier than top public schools... and therefore are better? Gotcha!</p>

<p>and on your comment about impacted majors at berkeley. now, i don't know anything about which majors are "impacted" but i'm going to guess its some sort of engineering program or science program.</p>

<p>Its likely still easier to get into berkeley, and then into that specific program, than it is to get into harvard. and, if its a engineering or science program, the program is likely better than harvards. soooo whats the complaint?</p>

<p><a href="sakky:">quote</a><br>
Of course! Nobody is asking for a perfect 100% rate. No school, not even the top privates, can do that.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>The non-graduation rate at the top privates is a reasonable proxy for the rate of unpredictable derailments, because for 75 percent or more of those students, the socioeconomics and the support system at the school make it hard to not graduate.<br>
60-80 percent at those campuses don't even receive financial aid and have a host of advantages beyond money. </p>

<p>A proxy for the maximum achievable graduation rates at socioeconomics closer to (but maybe better than) Berkeley's is the 6-year graduation data for minorities at the top privates. It is not that much higher than Berkeley's rate, and that's with lavish support systems in place and a strong institutional drive to keep those graduation rates as high as possible.</p>

<p>
[quote]
So if you've already arrived at year 3, it doesn't matter how you got there - those costs are sunk. All that matters is what you are going to do now: plow on ahead to graduate, or not.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>The amount of loan repayment is proportional to the sunk cost (and therefore a bigger incentive to improve one's earnings by graduating), and family pressure, whether overt or as "moral obligation" felt by the student, will also be stronger the larger THEIR sunk costs. The peer effect, where lower graduation rates around you makes it more acceptable to not finish, also helps the private schools in comparison to the publics, given their natural advantages and thus higher peer graduation standard. </p>

<p>
[quote]
[Socioeconomics] is a point raised previously and I agree, so then the answer is to then either provide the proper support for these people, or simply not admit them.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>It goes beyond costs, to factors the schools can't replicate. A rich kid who takes a year leave from Berkeley may have his own space in a 10-room house, his own car, therapist paid by parents to help work out "issues", and a better ability to get comfortable interim employment. A poor kid on leave has much less slack. He may need to move out on his own immediately, leading to a deeper tangle of work/rent/car expenses that tie him up for longer. Then a girlfriend moves in and before you know it, several years go by without a degree. There isn't his uncle's law firm or the neighbor's construction company to set him up in an easy and flexible job to fill the time, or parents' financial leverage as a control. Nor are there professors or a large number of former Berkeley (or equivalent school) graduates in the family orbit, who can give advice. </p>

<p>School-provided resources can only substitute for this stuff up to a limited point; even if it reaches 50 or 75 percent of the coddling that children of connected, educated, affluent professionals get, the difference will show up as a difference in graduation rates. Berkeley can't admit only the privileged, so this problem is a given. </p>

<p>
[quote]
I never said to use metrics that are illegal. You would use metrics that are perfectly legal. Let's find out what the law does and does not permit, and then do everything we can within the law.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Which predictors haven't been tried and data-mined to death?</p>

<p>
[quote]
Berkeley is, right now, more selective than many of the top privates. Where's the outrage? If you're that selective already, what's wrong with more?

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</p>

<p>The level of "more" that would be needed, including the de facto exclusion of poor, minority and rural students even more so than today, would run against populist notions of open access. If Berkeley becomes a place for the wealthy, what then?</p>

<p>"60-80 percent at those campuses don't even receive financial aid and have a host of advantages beyond money. "</p>

<p>Sorry, wrong statistic. What I had in mind are figures like the ones in this thread:</p>

<p><a href="http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/showpost.php?p=3852349&postcount=11%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/showpost.php?p=3852349&postcount=11&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>where 3 out of 4 students at Harvard have family income above $80000/year (double the US median income). </p>

<p>Yale's Common Data Set for 2006-7 says that 57 percent of students do not receive financial aid.</p>

<p>(added: )<br>
Princeton - 50 percent not on financial aid
Stanford - 55 percent not on financial aid
Dartmouth - 51 percent (of incoming class) no financial aid
Cornell - 54 percent no financial aid
Amherst 53 percent no aid
Swarthmore - 51 percent no aid</p>

<p>Siserune:</p>

<p>It is usually wise in "rigorous" debates where quantitative data is presented to give the source for the information. What is the source for the Harvard data?</p>

<p>The source is linked and quoted in the thread for which I posted a URL. More specifically, the first posting in that thread.</p>

<p>
[quote]
I think people both inside of and outside higher ed can accept that selective publics are going to have to say no to a lot of people--but they feel there must be a place offered to people who have proved themselves exceptional in their academic and extracurricular accomplishments. They have earned their shot. Would people find it appropriate to the ethos of a public school to seek out and apply psychological and socioeconomic factors implicated in lower grades and dropout, factors previously unused in making admissions decisions at flagships, and use those to deny students who otherwise seem to have earned a fair shot? I can't help thinking that many on campus--and certainly off--would feel that this is too far a departure from the mission such schools generally embrace.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>And I have always agreed that this is true...but only because the the notion of a public school's mission is itself an arbitrary social construct. Again, as I pointed out, numerous other countries run their public schools in a manner quite different from the way that the US does. Oxford and Cambridge, for example, are far and away the most selective schools in the UK - to the point that most Americans would deem them "elitist" - despite the fact that they are "public". </p>

<p>Moreover, American public schools have themselves changed their mission. For example, it wasn't that long ago when many public (and private) schools, especially in the South, had a specific "mission" to not admit African-Americans or women; for example, the University of Virginia didn't admit women until 1920 and didn't admit African-Americans until 1950. The California public schools were some of the chief proponents of affirmative action (i.e. the Bakke case) until 1996 when it was banned by the voters via Prop 209. </p>

<p>I seem to recall reading a history of UCBerkeley and noting that in the early days, Berkeley used to be both open-admission and free of charge; and not only free of charge to state residents, but free of charge to EVERYBODY. [Of course this was back in the days when few people went to college anyway.} Now, of course, Berkeley is far from open-admissions and far from free of charge. Hence, I think it's quite clear that Berkeley's "mission" has changed dramatically. </p>

<p>The point is that school missions are always changing. Let's face it. These missions are just arbitrary social constructs. They've changed before, and they'll surely change again. Sometimes the mission changes according to the expressed wishes of the public, as in the case of Prop 209 that was passed by the majority of the voters in California by referendum. Sometimes the change happens in spite of the expressed wishes of the public. For example, I strongly suspect that the public in those Southern states in the old days would have voted to continue to maintain the policy of segregation. After all, the majority of the public in those states was white, so of course they would have voted to continue to exclude African-Americans. But regardless, the point is, school missions change all the time. A mission that is embraced at one particular point in time will be abandoned at some later time. </p>

<p>
[quote]
The problem is that you lump all public and all private schools. The generalizations you have made on numerous occasions are simply not applicable to all public, or private schools. You continue to ignore that all publics are not equal and that all privates are not equal in regard to graduation rates.:

[/quote]
</p>

<p>On the contrary, I have always agreed that not all schools, public or private, are not equal. That's not the point. We are talking about * general trends * here. For example, it is clearly true that all cities have some neighborhoods of varying crime rates. But given that, it is still true that some cities have more crime than others. </p>

<p>For example, San Jose CA is a safer city than Detroit. Now of course it is true that the safest neighborhoods in Detroit are obviously less dangerous than the most dangerous neighborhoods in San Jose. But that doesn't take away from the fact that San Jose is a safer city overall. Similarly, just because my grandfather smoked several packs a day and still lived to be over 90 doesn't prove that smoking is safe. There are always statistical outliers. What is important from a statistical standpoint is where the data points congregate. </p>

<p>
[quote]
would also note that this statement is completely contrary to your statement in a recent post:</p>

<p>Quote:
Originally Posted by sakky
First off, like I said, I was never interested in talking about the average school, either public or private. </p>

<p>.</p>

<p>The latter quote is also almost untirely inconsistent with what you have said throughout this thread.</p>

<p>I have tried to understand what it is you are trying to say, but have come to the conclusion that you are not even sure what your point is. If you aren't, how can you expect anyone else to be?

[/quote]
</p>

<p>I think I have made my point quite clear. Public schools should do a better job of graduating more people. If they do not, then that's a reason to prefer to attend a comparable private school over a public school. After all, ceteris paribus, why should you as an individual choose to risk your career over not graduating, if you don't have to take that risk? That's like choosing to drive your car without a seat belt. </p>

<p>Now, don't get me wrong. Obviously, that shouldn't be the *only*criteria to weigh in choosing a public school vs. a private school. But it is one criteria. </p>

<p>Where I think you got confused is that somebody here (perhaps you) asked for evidence that public schools graduated a lower percentage of students than private schools. That question was never part of my argument in the first place. Nevertheless, I provided the data. But that was never part of my main point. I was simply providing a service: somebody asked a question, and since I had the data, I was happy to oblige. The data elicited follow-up questions, and I did my best to answer them. But again, that was never part of my main argument. </p>

<p>
[quote]
sakky,</p>

<p>so your argument is that top private schools are easier than top public schools... and therefore are better? Gotcha!

[/quote]
</p>

<p>It's better for the individual in question. Like I said, why take a risk with your career if you don't have to? </p>

<p>
[quote]
and on your comment about impacted majors at berkeley. now, i don't know anything about which majors are "impacted" but i'm going to guess its some sort of engineering program or science program.</p>

<p>Its likely still easier to get into berkeley, and then into that specific program, than it is to get into harvard. and, if its a engineering or science program, the program is likely better than harvards.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Engineering, perhaps. But science? Would you really argue that Berkeley economics is really better than Harvard economics? Yet Berkeley econ is impacted. How about Berkeley psychology - is that really better than Harvard psychology? Yet Berkeley psychology is impacted. </p>

<p>Personally, I would actually say that a far better example would be Stanford. As it stands, if costs were the same (i.e. you are OOS), is there a good reason to choose Berkeley over Stanford? At Stanford, you can major in anything you want, and change at anytime. Can you say the same at Berkeley? Not only that, but the Stanford graduation rate is higher. </p>

<p>The bottom line is that Berkeley's impaction problems and graduation problems hurt its ability to compete with other schools. If Berkeley could fix these problems, then Berkeley would be a more desirable school. Nor am I singling out Berkeley. The same could be said of all schools that have impaction issues. </p>

<p>
[quote]
soooo whats the complaint?

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Well, it seems to me that you just don't want these schools to fix their problems. You're just not interested in having these schools get better. If that's true, then why not just come right out and say so? </p>

<p>If you don't think that any problems exist, then might I invite you to talk to some Berkeley students who tried to get into impacted majors and were denied and so have to major in something they don't really want. Do you think they like it?</p>

<p>
[quote]
The non-graduation rate at the top privates is a reasonable proxy for the rate of unpredictable derailments, because for 75 percent or more of those students, the socioeconomics and the support system at the school make it hard to not graduate.
60-80 percent at those campuses don't even receive financial aid and have a host of advantages beyond money.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>
[quote]
It goes beyond costs, to factors the schools can't replicate. A rich kid who takes a year leave from Berkeley may have his own space in a 10-room house, his own car, therapist paid by parents to help work out "issues", and a better ability to get comfortable interim employment. A poor kid on leave has much less slack. He may need to move out on his own immediately, leading to a deeper tangle of work/rent/car expenses that tie him up for longer. Then a girlfriend moves in and before you know it, several years go by without a degree. There isn't his uncle's law firm or the neighbor's construction company to set him up in an easy and flexible job to fill the time, or parents' financial leverage as a control. Nor are there professors or a large number of former Berkeley (or equivalent school) graduates in the family orbit, who can give advice. </p>

<p>School-provided resources can only substitute for this stuff up to a limited point; even if it reaches 50 or 75 percent of the coddling that children of connected, educated, affluent professionals get, the difference will show up as a difference in graduation rates. Berkeley can't admit only the privileged, so this problem is a given.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>And again, even if what you are saying is true, all that points to is the need for even better support services and financial aid for the (fewer) students you would be admitting. </p>

<p>One of the central tenets of my thesis here has been that it is a rather serious problem for somebody to not graduate, given the primacy of the degree in this day and age. What you are talking about, if anything, doesn't weaken my point, it actually strengthens it. You said it yourself - maybe the poor guy going to school doesn't have much financial slack. Yet the current system drains some of that very slack of which he has little by charging him tuition and room/board, yet doesn't grant him a degree!. In other words, here's a poor guy getting poorer via the current system. Wouldn't it be better for this poor guy to go somewhere from which he is more likely to actually graduate? </p>

<p>Put another way, if a super-rich guy doesn't graduate, it's no big problem because he's rich anyway and he'll end up fine no matter what. But it's the poor guy who needs a degree most of all.. Hence, if you follow this line of logic, then you might conclude that a public school ought to be shooting for an even higher graduation rate than the top private schools. {Note, that's not to say that that is my position, but I am saying that that is one outcome that the logic would support.}</p>

<p>
[quote]
The amount of loan repayment is proportional to the sunk cost (and therefore a bigger incentive to improve one's earnings by graduating), and family pressure, whether overt or as "moral obligation" felt by the student, will also be stronger the larger THEIR sunk costs.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Yet it would seem to me that this phenomenom is ambiguous in effect. After all, (ignoring financial aid effects) private schools tend to cost more than public schools. Yet public school students start out with less money. Hence, it's not clear to me who (public or private students) really has a larger debt burden to carry around, relative to what they can afford. </p>

<p>
[quote]
The peer effect, where lower graduation rates around you makes it more acceptable to not finish, also helps the private schools in comparison to the publics, given their natural advantages and thus higher peer graduation standard.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>I agree, but then that deleterious social effect is something you need to break. If anything, like I said, it actually counts as yet another reason to prefer a private school, ceteris paribus. Why put yourself in a peer situation in which graduation is de-emphasized, if you don't have to? Why wouldn't you want to surround yourself with highly motivated peers who will then in turn motivate you? </p>

<p>
[quote]
Which predictors haven't been tried and data-mined to death?

[/quote]
</p>

<p>I don't know yet, but I strongly suspect the originating high school would be one predictor. Additionally, the specific grades in specific subjects and with specific teachers. For example, it may be found that one particular teacher at one particular large high school just happens to give out lots of easy A's. A dynamic algorithm would correct for this by discounting the value of those particular A's. Vice versa would be true - those teachers who were found to grade unusually hard would be discovered and their grades would 'appreciate' in value. </p>

<p>But the point is, admissions today has never emphasized gradution rates. Probably the best example would be in the money sports. Look at the published NCAA graduation rates for the football and basketball players at Berkeley. They're pitiful. Even if you use the NCAA-derived "GSR" rating (which basically excludes those players who turned pro or transferred to other schools in good academic standing), the Cal men's basketball team only graduated 38% of its players, and the football team graduated only 44%. That clearly shows me that, at least for the sports teams, Berkeley was not really that interested in assessing whether somebody was actually going to graduate before admitting them. </p>

<p><a href="http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/inst2006/107.pdf%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/inst2006/107.pdf&lt;/a>
<a href="http://www2.ncaa.org/portal/academics_and_athletes/education_and_research/academic_reform/grad_rate/2006/d1_info.pdf%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www2.ncaa.org/portal/academics_and_athletes/education_and_research/academic_reform/grad_rate/2006/d1_info.pdf&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>Now, I know what some people would say - that's just the Cal athletes. Sure, but I'm sure that if they can do that with athletes, there are probably other cases where Cal has admitted some students with little regard for whether they would actually graduate. What I want is an admissions office that places a greater emphasis on picking students who are more likely to graduate, even if that might hurt other considerations (i.e. the Cal football and basketball team's rankings). </p>

<p>{Note, what makes the athletic situation so sad is that the above NCAA data is based on athletes who came to Cal in the early 90's and early 2000's - back when the football and basketball team were mediocre at best. Hence, what that means is that Cal was admitting athletes who were performing poorly both in the classroom *and * on the field. I mean, really, what's up with that? While trading graduation rate for better sports teams is, in my opinion, a poor trade, hey, at least you're getting something back in return for admitting poor students. Cal was getting *nothing * back.}</p>

<p>
[quote]
The level of "more" that would be needed, including the de facto exclusion of poor, minority and rural students even more so than today, would run against populist notions of open access. If Berkeley becomes a place for the wealthy, what then?

[/quote]
</p>

<p>See, first of all, I'm not sure about that premise. You guys always seem to think that my policies would work to exclude poor/minority/rural students. I would argue that my policies might work just as well to exclude a bunch of rich lazy white students who aren't serious about putting in the work necessary to graduate.</p>

<p>
[quote]
One of the central tenets of my thesis here has been that it is a rather serious problem for somebody to not graduate, given the primacy of the degree in this day and age.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>That is serious, but as has been stated before, you need to establish what the failure-to-graduate rate is before you can identify which schools have serious problems. The "graduation rate" that we've been going by doesn't actually tell you how many people end up in the position of having no college degree.</p>