I totally get that LF. IF you could know your exact odds at a number of colleges, then you could accurately predict your chances (not your results, i.e. “red is due”). But you CAN’T really know your odds at any one elite college, so you can’t accurately predict your odds, making it a poor strategy, and why nearly everyone in the know recommends R-M-S.
Yep. Independent events! (lol sorry I said I would stop, couldn’t help myself).