Question about school selectivity

Parents Forum
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<p>S2 is in 10th grade, and he's starting to ask about colleges. I think the kids at school must be talking about this, because he frequently comes home and asks whether College X is a "good" school. Although it's early, I think that he needs to have some specific schools (match/safeties) to think about. He's feeling some anxiety and this would help. I've been doing some research, hoping to identify a few match/safety schools that would be good for him. I've been on CC for a while, so I knew that in general colleges have become more selective. Still, I was shocked at just how selective some schools have become.</p>

<p>But I'm thinking that the school stats don't give the full picture. This is what I'm thinking:</p>

<p>Harvard and similar schools have 5-7% acceptance rates. I assume that no one bothers applying to those schools unless they at least have the basic stats (GPA/class rank/SAT scores), as well as some good ECs. So, a kid who "matches" has a very low chance of admission (less than 10%). </p>

<p>Now take a school like Tufts. Their acceptance rate is 17%, and their basis stats match Harvard's. This is what I'm wondering. Is their applicant pool the same as Harvard's, or does it include some kids who don't have the needed stats but apply, not knowing how selective it is? If only 50% of kids applying have the basic requirements, then the chance of admission for a kid who does match is over 30%. That looks a lot better than 17%.</p>

<p>Does this make sense? Does anyone know how I can find out? </p>

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<p>Many people apply to Harvard, Yale, and Tufts who don’t have a chance of getting it. They just want to say they ‘gave it a try.’ It is less likely that someone would just apply to Tufts like they do to Harvard and Yale. It is just not as well known in other parts of the country, so an above-average kid from Nevada is just less likely to apply to Tufts as he is to Harvard.</p>

<p>Don’t worry about the stats so much, except as a warning that no one’s chances are very good. I’d get your son interested in one of the schools in your area, such as your state schools, and then add other schools to the list as he develops his interests.</p>

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<p>Thanks, twoinanddone. My plan is to, first, identify 3-4 schools that he would love where he has an 80% chance of admission. His stats are good, and he has very strong ECs, so this should be quite possible. I’ve explained this plan to him, that we would find 3-4 schools where we think he has an 80% chance of admission, 3-4 schools where he has a 50% chance of admission, and 3-4 reaches. He is really happy with it.</p>

<p>Maybe 9-12 schools aren’t enough these days?? I want to limit the number because I’ve learned from generous CC friends that demonstrating interest is essential. Demonstrating strong interest for more than 12 schools seems difficult. I’d really like to keep the number to 10.</p>

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<p>Harvard’s yield is 80% vs Tufts’ 37%. Tufts needs to admit a lot more students to fill its class.<br>
<a href=“http://www.usnews.com/education/best-colleges/articles/2014/01/30/national-universities-where-accepted-students-usually-enroll”>http://www.usnews.com/education/best-colleges/articles/2014/01/30/national-universities-where-accepted-students-usually-enroll&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

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<p>Yes, it makes sense. I don’t think my kid has a chance to get into Harvard. He will NOT be applying there. But he does have a chance at Tufts. He will be applying to schools with that accept rate and with their admissions stats. As a rule, unless your kid has something often called a “hook”, he needs to be in the upper 25% of the applicant pool stats wise with very great grades, taking the hardest type of courses in order to have some chance of acceptance at these highly selective schools. </p>

<p>My oldest was accepted to Tufts with scores right at the end of the 25% range, maybe slightly below it but he was a recruited athlete there and at that school was pretty much told he was in from the onset. So it was with a number of schools where his stats were borderline at the 25% range. He used his sport to give him a boost in getting into a better school than his academic record would made matches rather than going for money in athletic scholarships. Even then, it wasn’t good enough for some of the ivies. He did not even try HPY, because his sports profile did not meet the mark for special consideration there. But Tufts wanted him and they were willing to just glance at his academic profile and know he was pretty much an in with the athletic card. </p>

<p>That is just one hook–being a recruited athlete in a NCAA sport and going that route. It still does not guarantee you a spot as it depends upon the school, the sport, the athletic dept, the coach etc, but a hook it is that distinguishes a kids app from the stacks. Legacy also usually gets an app put into a special pool, URM status, first generation at college or other challenges in life , celebrity, development, all have their own pools, and those kids are examined separately which skews the accept stats greatly. </p>

<p>My current kid looking at schools, like yours, is not going to be in any of those pools, so his chances are lower than that overall 15% for Tufts. Being from the NE, he will get no geographic advantage either, and a kid from Iowa with the same numbers will get a spot before he does. Tufts will be one of his highest reach schools</p>

<p>Some great match schools for my son would be UDenver, Syracuse, Penn State, Fordham, just off the top of my head. He’ll almost certainly get into any of our state schools, and most OOS flagships, Michigan, VA, some UCs, UNC-CH, and some other highly selective ones and of course, any highly selective programs within any school, excepted. But yeah, if he applies to University of Vermonot or Rhode Island or UConn, for example, for the arts and sciences programs, he’d be very likely to be accepted. BU is a school where I think he’d be accepted. Northeastern these days, a slight reach, but looking pretty good from his school Naviance numbers. Harvard. Nope. MIT Nope. Tufts High reach, BC reach. Holy Cross slight reach/high match good chance given his school Naviance numbers.</p>

<p>If you can get access to your school Naviance numbers, it can give a lot of good info. You can see once you have your kids test scores, or so prediction from PSAT, PLAN results in junior year, where his points lie in the clusters for the kids accepted to given schools My son’s stats do fall within the cluster cloud of accepted students for Tufts from his school, so yes, he has a chance, but there are also kids with better numbers than his, who were turned down. So he does have more than a 15% chance given the statistical history at his school with his numbers, maybe 30%. </p>

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<p>What the application pool looks like is one of the big mysteries of college admissions. I think it’s possible that kids apply to Harvard for the name recognition that don’t apply to Tufts. For what it’s worth (sample of one), my B+/A- kid with high scores, top 6% of his class applied back in 2010. He got into any school with at least a 20% admissions rate (which included at that time Chicago EA), and rejected from any school more selective than that. I don’t know if he’d get into the same list today, i.e. is the pool more selective, or just bigger? Or a little of both?</p>

<p>Lots of schools don’t care about demonstrating interest (none of the Ivies). Some like Tufts, care very much about “fit”, their supplement reflects that. If you spend any time on their website you can get a pretty good sense of their personality. </p>

<p>I think as long as you find two safeties you like you can apply to as many or as few schools as you like. Neither of my kids applied to any real matches. Older son had two smaller tech schools as safeties (and got into one early), younger son had American as a safety and then got into Chicago early so that was his second “safety.” I highly, highly recommend an EA or rolling admissions school for a safety, if you don’t get in you can recalibrate your safety list.</p>

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<p>Just looked at TUfts. About a quarter of all males accepted, a marked increase over females, Dang, these schools are getting more and more selective, arent’ they? Interestingly enough according to their College.data that they provide they DO NOT consider interest on part of the appliacant at all. They checked the "no bearing’ way over to the left in terms of demonstrated interest, heh, heh. Don’t know if I believe that, but that is what they say. Fit, I do believe, but hard for them to judge that given the volume of apps they get WHen you figure how much time their admissions folks have for each app, ti’s just not possible time wise to scrutinize that so accurately, Fit is a big deal for some schools as they have seen over time what works and what doesn’t, AND particularly of relevance to Admissions offices, who comes to the schools and who doesn’t if an accept is given. That Yield is ever so important so if you are in that accept pool, if you can let them know that you are going there (That’s where ED can play the role), your chances go up. </p>

<p>That, by the way, ED, is a special pool that is skewing a lot of accept rates. I’m looking at overall for males with that 25%. A male applying ED in that zone probably has a higher accept rate than that. </p>

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<p>Thanks so much for the advice! It is so helpful. Cptofthehouse, thank you for giving me a few more schools to consider for the list. mathmom, I will take your advice about getting an early admission to a safety. It will make all the difference for his senior year if he has an acceptance he likes early in the process. </p>

<p>Not all information is in at this point, but I expect that my son will have very high SAT scores. It’s possible that he may be a NM finalist; I think that at the least he will be commended. His GPA at a large, good public HS was 93% after 9th grade, will probably go up a little bit but not much. One problem I see is that he is not in the highest level in all courses. He has always been in regular-level foreign language, and next year, when they start differentiating in English, he will be in the regular level. He is in the top level in math, science, social studies, and does very well in those courses.</p>

<p>One factor that will narrow things down for him is that he needs a very strong music program. He is a very accomplished pianist and will need a good teacher. And he plays a brass instrument in the band and jazz band. His HS has very strong music programs so he is used to being in a very good group (starting out at the bottom, of course, but working his way up). He’s just gotten his first “gig” in a pit band. But he is not planning to major in music, so I’m not sure how this will work. If he goes to a college with a great music program, are the bands/private instruction open to kids who are not music majors? Are the professors interested in working with kids who are not aiming toward a performing career, or even any career in music?</p>

<p>He plays a sport but did not make his school team. He is not in any other ECs now; between private instruction, band practice, and practice at home, he spends at least 25 hours per week on music.</p>

<p>He is extremely disciplined.</p>

<p>I see him as a strong candidate for some very good schools, but unlikely to be a candidate for Tufts-level schools (except perhaps as a reach, somewhere where the music might help.)</p>

<p>Legacy at H, but not a candidate!</p>

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<p>My son applied to 5 match schools with 20-35% acceptance rates. He got into 2 of them. There is no rhyme or reason behind the ones he got into versus the ones he didn’t. If you are a match, your acceptance rate probably increases somewhat, but not significantly. While it is a match for you, some are treating it as a reach and some are treating it as a safety.</p>

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<p>My nephew who goes to Pitt, is in the symphonic orchestra or some other such music group (maybe more than one) which is open to all by auditon. He was an excellent musician in high school, love it, but did not want to commit to it as a major. So he has found his outlet, and most schools do have this. Ironically, the schools with great music programs, say conservatory style ones may be the ones less likely to give those not in the field an easy crack at joining some non major group as they attract a lot of top grade non major musicians for the same reasons you are stating, and the competition for audition based seats even for non music majors is intense. FOr example, CMU does have audition based opportunities for those not in their School of Performing Arts, and let me tell you, I’ve been to those performances, and my guess is that most of those playing would have been capable of admissions to a selective conservatory based program. Getting a seat there even as a non music major is very tough, I’m sure. So you weight opportunity vs how great such programs are. Yale has a non music major orchestra too, and I hear that it is very very good. Not an easy accept to get in there. Lots of excellent musicians out there who chose not to go into music in college. And music is not going to help so much at schools that have that kind of student pool Every other kid is a great musician, and if the school has a good school of music, what use is another musician not majoring? </p>

<p>Wait till junior year and when you have some of those test results in hand. Unfortunately, they are a strong indicator. Talk to his counselor about beefing up some of his course selections. Yes, that is a very important factor in selective school admissions. Class rank/grade, course difficulty, Test scores, ECs and other personal attributes, Recs from school counselor and teachers, Essay are the things that most schools examine at admissions. </p>

<p>Your son will be an easy accept at the vast, vast majority of the 3000 some schools in this country you know. The problem is that many of us are focusing on a list made of the most selective schools, which by definition are exclusive. Get off that list and you have a whole lot of schools, like most of them that would be highly likely to take your kid. </p>

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<p>Tufts’s applicant pool is not the same as Harvard’s and here’s why.
Tufts like most schools gets some applicants for whom Tufts is a reach (someone with a 3.7/2000) and some for whom it’s a match (e.g. 3.9/2300) and some for whom it’s just plain out of reach but are applying as a “hail Mary” (e.g. 3.4/1800).</p>

<p>For Harvard (putting hooked applicants aside). It’s a reach for everybody, even someone with a 4.0/2400. They get very few unhooked serious applicants with under a 3.7/2100 and that skews their applicant pool much higher. That’s why that 6% acceptance rate is actually more discouraging than it looks: it’s not 6% of the general population it’s 6% of the kids who thought they had a reasonable shot at getting into Harvard.</p>

<p>Now one thing that does shake things up a bit is that Tufts applicants can suffer from the “Tufts Efffect” (which does not happen to Harvard applicants) which is where a very qualified applicant will be rejected because the school thinks that either they are being used as a safety school or that the applicant is unlikely to enroll if admitted.</p>

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<p>I actually think it is the reverse. Everyone and their brother throws an application at Harvard, and many of them have no realistic chance whatsoever to get in, given the stats. (This doesn’t mean that they couldn’t do the work. That’s a completely separate issue.) The same is true of many of the other big names that “everyone” has heard of. I think that the applicant pool at other schools is much more self-selected.</p>

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<p>bp0001, I think of match schools as places where my son would have a 50% chance, so 2/5 for your son makes sense to me. </p>

<p>Yes, cptofthehouse. I see the problem. He needs good music opportunities, but not so good that he can’t compete. And it’s too bad that music won’t help him, I was hoping that it would tip the balance and get him into some match or reach schools. He is strongest on the piano, but finding private instruction isn’t as hard as getting into bands with his brass instrument. And that is what he needs, the social experience of making music at a high level. </p>

<p>I do realize that he will have a very good chance at many great schools. And I realize that he is not going to be a candidate for the top schools that CC focuses on. I was hoping that the music would push him over the edge at one of those schools, but I guess that’s not likely.</p>

<p>Now I just have to find the right schools. This is what I’m looking for: a girl from our neighborhood went to a mid-western LA school that was known for a strong music program, intending to major in literature/music. She is extremely bright and a superb musician (but not headed for a career in music). She took a geology course and was hooked, started doing research with the professor, ended up in grad school in geophysics. To everyone’s surprise, including her shocked parents. This particular school is probably a match/reach for my son, but I’ve heard that there is a lot of drug use on campus, which puts me off.</p>

<p>I am hoping to get on Naviance soon. But it won’t tell me anything about course level.</p>

<p>My son will take 2 APs next year, history and physics, and 3 senior year (history, calculus bc, chemistry). he is also self-studying, supervised by his piano teacher, for AP music and will take that exam next year. I know that many kids take more APs, but this is the highest level course plan for his school, except that he will not be taking AP literature senior year (but will have the AP music exam). Most kids, even the highest-achieving kids, don’t take more AP courses than this. The top kids from his HS regularly get into Ivys and the most selective schools, so it seems to be enough.</p>

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<p>I was thinking about U Rochester, which seems appealing for many reasons. They have the Eastman School of Music as a school within the U. But maybe he would not have access to music opportunities from outside the Eastman school.</p>

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<p>Eastman does offer music instruction and performance opportunities for nonmajors. (One of the many reasons D likes UR so much.) Northwestern’s Bienen school of music also has classes for nonmajors.</p>

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<p>Your D is at URochester? How does she like it? What is her major? I don’t know much about NW but I assumed that it was out of reach for admissions. I just took a quick look, and I don’t think it’s a possibility, except as a reach. Maybe not even as a reach.</p>

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<p>I would take stories about drug use on campus with a major grain of salt. I remember being told by earnest individuals that Brown was a hotbed of serious drug use, and that it produced a high number of heroin addicts. I think that is extremely unlikely. The fact is that there is probably a higher proportion of pot smoking on campuses than there is in the general population, as well as misuse of prescription ADHD drugs (“study” drugs). Periodically, there is a news item at some school when people who are dealing are busted. It has happened at schools as diverse as Columbia and Haverford. Sometimes it is picked up by the media and there is a feeding frenzy. </p>

<p>On all campuses there will be those who engage in drinking/partying to excess and/or drugs of various sorts, and there will be those who don’t. The ones who don’t won’t get any publicity. </p>

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<p>Then your son is fine for curriculum difficulty, especially if he gets good test scores on those junior year APs. Talk to the GC as to whether they will designate his course load as one of the most difficult at this school. Get a copy of the school profile while you are there so you can see what the colleges get from the high school, and how they place your son within that profile. You should know that, as well as getting a college done transcript for your son at the end of the year, so again, you see what they see. The colleges do NOT get the same transcript you do, so it’s useful to see what is and isn’t on the one sent to the colleges from your school. </p>

<p>As for drug use (hands up in the air). It’s everywhere, though you can check the Princeton review and other indicators as to how pervasive it is thought to be at certain schools. Lots of things like that, hard to assess. IF there is a strong Greek scene, how would it feel if your kid were excluded? Or if he gets into that? All issues to consider. It’s not just the rankings. </p>

<p>Most of the Catholic schools are good matches and even pretty sure things for him (ND, BC, GTU, HC maybe excepted). Are you limiting the geographics are focusing in a certain area. You’ll soon find out that a lot of the kids from a given school are applying to the same colleges. That’s where Naviance is very useful and your GC’s appraisal of chances. A college not on that radar is truly up in the air. </p>

<p>LACs can be wondeful, and i have a soft spot towards them which most of my kid and DH does not share. But the one kid who did go to a LAC had the same sort of experience as your friend’s DD. He was taken in hand by some top faculty who helped him enormously. It really made a big difference in his years there, and instrumental in his current job. They did a stellar job. but you can’t expect this every time. Not a guarantee that this will happen, but I do feel the chances are greater at these schools. Also the music opportunities are often better, as well as other theatre arts. Just more attention overall, IMO for most kids. </p>

<p>But you are very wise looking for schools for him to get familiar in name that are good matches for him. A lot of kids go into the college process at my sons’ schools thinking only of the HPY names, and maybe some big sports schools and some local ones. They have no idea of what else is out there and it’s tough getting those names into their brains at that time with so much going on. Also that whole crowd effect does play a role, when so many of your class mates re bandying certain school names. It’s good that some other schools are on the horizon as well. So yes, getting some names out there is a good thing. But usually, around here the whole idea is to get into the most presitgious school by peer/ surrounding standards. It’s tough when you are talking about Gustaf Adolphson and St Olaf’s in the NE when everyone else is talking Gettysburg and DIckinson, for example.</p>

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<p>D’s not at Rochester…but it’s tops on her list. It was a school we knew virtually nothing about but scheduled a visit almost on a whim last summer because it was on the way to Boston where she was looking at a number of colleges. I came away from the tour at UR feeling like we had found a buried treasure. Since then she’s kept in touch with the admissions person who led the session and they’ve been spectacular. </p>

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<p>Is your D a junior this year, EllieMom? Thank you for the information. Maybe our kids will end up at the same place? </p>

<p>cptofthehouse, My son has not made a lot of decisions about what kind of school he wants (except that he probably wants a school on the smaller side, maybe up to medium sized), but he does know that he doesn’t want a big party scene. He will probably look for schools without strong frat presence. He is social, and has plenty of friends, but they are the quieter, geekier kids. He is not drawn to wild partying and would be better off in a place where he is one of the few staying out of the predominant activity (or, worse, joining in out of loneliness). </p>

<p>I am a scientist and have opportunities to see CVs of many young people in my field. I’ve been able to tell my son that top people are coming out of many schools, including small regional colleges that most people haven’t heard about. Very few come from Ivys. They can’t possibly educate all the scientists, doctors, lawyers, business leaders, that the country needs. He is pretty independent and if he feels right at a school he won’t be influenced by the perceptions of others. </p>

<p>I know that drugs are everywhere, unfortunately. They are certainly in the high schools and I don’t imagine kids who use will stop using when they get to college. But if there are major differences in prevalence I would rather avoid the “hotbeds.”</p>