Question about "yield protection"

I’m fascinated that in the many discussions about managing/maximizing/protecting yield, posters decry deferrals of statistically qualified applicants but rarely does waitlisting of statistically qualified applicants garner the same outrage. Both are tools that colleges use to manage yield and meet institutional needs. But doesn’t a deferral provide more control and options to the applicant than the offer of a waitlist? They get a second review and another shot at admission. They can do much more far earlier in the process timeline to try to turn that deferral into a potential acceptance. Schools have fewer acceptances in hand, more open spots. With a waitlist, the applicant has less time and options for fewer spots. Not to mention the additional stress and time squeeze that comes with riding out a waitlist while enrollment deadlines for any acceptances approach. What is it about a deferral that upsets people while a waitlist does not?

I tried to answer a few posts upthread.

A WL is a WL. If you take my kid, great. If not, at least you let him/her down with a soft rejection. We can write a LOCI, but we will probably put the school out of our minds.

But the EA deferral creates this weird dilemma. (Again, only for schools that offer the conversion option). Should we move from EA to ED2? Will we be in an even worse situation if we choose not to take ED2? Which potential RD options are we foreclosing if we take the ED2 option? Did we burn ourselves by applying EA in the first place?

Yes, this affects a small sliver of people who apply to a small sliver of schools. But you could say the same thing for a lot of CC’s threads. :slight_smile:

1 Like

But were you in a worse position than if the school did not offer EA in the first place?

If the school had not offered EA and you chose not to ED, you would be waiting until sometime end of March/beginning of April to even get any feedback.

Having offered EA and your child taken it:

  • If your kid gets in, huge benefit in having at least 1 desirable acceptance in hand.
  • If your kid is deferred, and no ED2 available, you are in no different shape than if your kid had applied RD
  • If your kid is deferred and ED2 is available, you have a chance to rethink your original ED decision. This is your option and any additional option to you is a benefit. Or you can just wait for RD. I don’t think anyone has come up with any credible evidence that deferred EA students have a worse chance than they may have had if they applied straight RD.
  • If your kid is rejected, it may tell you your kid reached too high and/or there might be something off in an essay or LoR.
7 Likes

If the school is not the student’s top choice, definitely not. If top choice, but (s)he is not absolutely certain, again no.

Case Western has a different admission model than the colleges that are most frequently discussed on this forum. Many Case Western applicants are accepted EA – not just those who switch to ED2. Some sources report a much higher EA acceptance rate than RD (I suspect they are copying EA admit rate from USNWR, which reports both EA and ED rates in their pay site). Decision threads on this forum also suggest a high acceptance rate for EA. For example, it looks like the majority of posters in the 2023 EA decision thread at Case Western Reserve Class of 2023 EA Results Thread - #3 by Proudmom2023 were accepted, including both some top stat kids and some decent stat kids. A good portion were also deferred. Hardly anyone was rejected in the EA round. In the thread, some suspected that many of the high stat deferrals relate to Case Western being need aware, rather than yield protection.

Perhaps more relevant to “yield protection” is Case Western’s waitlist policies. Some example waitlist numbers from Case Western’s CDS are below. In the sample years, Case Western consistently waitlisted ~10k kids, which is more than 1/3 of applicants – far larger than colleges than occurs at other colleges that are frequently discussed on this forum. The number waitlisted had less variation than number accepted Case Western seems to admit however many kids they need to from their huge waitlist to meet their target enrollment of ~1350 kids. They might admit 0 kids from the waitlist if the have a higher than expected yield or they might admit as large as 1076 from the waitlist, as occurred in 2020 with kids choosing not to attend due to COVID.

This does appear to be a form of “yield protection” for the college. Case Western has a very low <15% yield on EA+RD admits, which I imagine makes it awkward to predict enrollment totals well. If EA+RD yield in a particular admission cycle is lower than predicted, they use their waitlist to make up the difference and meet target enrollment. If EA+RD yield is higher than expected, they admit few/none from waitlist to minimize degree of over-enrollment.

2018-19 – 10k waitlisted (37% of applicants), 8k accepted (29% of applicants), 0 admitted from waitlist, 1393 enrolled, Yield = 18%
2019-20 – 10k waitlisted (36% of applicants), 8k accepted (30% of applicants), 209 admitted from waitlist (2.5% of admits), 1357 enrolled, Yield = 17%
2020-21 – 10k waitlisted (34% of applicants), 9k accepted (30% of applicants), 1076 admitted from waitlist (12% of admits), 1304 enrolled, Yield = 15%

From a student’s prospective, I don’t think there is an obvious yield protection downside from applying EA instead of RD. Most kids who post on this website (typically high stat + high income) seem to be admitted EA, and the rest are primarily deferred. Case Western seems up front that they give a boost for ED, which is understandable given their low yield and consideration of demonstrated interest/need. However, this does not mean that RD has better admission odds than EA (without switch to ED2). I see no reason to expect that the kids who are deferred → waitlist in EA, would have a better non-waitlist result had they applied RD.

12 Likes

This is super helpful and I’ll remember your analysis of Case when we look at schools for S24. I sense, however, that the rosy EA story may not be the same for certain other schools (am thinking of the ones that also use ED).

But make no mistake, I’m glad to see the data summarized by Data10. One of the reasons I consult CC is to learn information like this.

2 Likes

Wait — does this mean that of the 1304 enrolled in 2020-21, a full 1076 came off the waitlist?

Or did some of the 1076 admitted waitlisters decline after being accepted off the waitlist, so the waitlist numbers are a smaller portion of the enrolled total?

@Auntlydia - I believe Georgetown is Early Action, rather than ED (as you stated). Their website explains why.

3 Likes

We’re dealing with this at Tulane right now. My daughter applied EA – Tulane has a program that specifically interested her, one that isn’t widely found at that size or type of school. We visited, and she really liked the vibe. The fact that they give some merit (we won’t qualify for financial aid) was a bonus. She applied to a couple of their scholarships, too.

She’s a 36 ACT, 4.0 kid – plus solid essays, ECs, recs, etc. Couple of really standout parts to her application. (Grad-school-level research work in high school, in one teacher’s estimation.)

She was deferred. Three other kids (that we know of so far) in her in small high school class of 137 kids got in, two EA and one ED. None were comparable to her on paper, but of course I don’t know what the school is looking for.

Since her deferral, my daughter has gotten SIX emails asking her to switch to ED II. She doesn’t want to – she applied to nine other schools, two EA (accepted at one, hasn’t yet heard from the other), seven RD (won’t hear until much later). She’s really hoping for some merit to compare, so she didn’t want to ED anywhere.

She’s filled out the continued interest form for Tulane, and later this week she’ll email the admissions officer reiterating her interest – which is what Tulane’s blog suggested she do.

I know it’s just about managing enrollment from the college’s perspective, but it’s not super fun on our end.

10 Likes

This is exactly what I had in mind. If Tulane used a straight EA system, she’d be deferred and that would be it. You could send letters/additional recommendations/new grades, but you wouldn’t be bombarded with emails urging you to convert to ED. Sure, you can hold your ground, but I really do wonder how many EA applicants are accepted by Tulane in the later RD round.

1 Like

I really don’t know. Tulane is being somewhat transparent about it, I guess –

https://admissionblog.tulane.edu/2021/12/20/ive-been-deferred-now-what/

My daughter’s college advisor told her it’s possible that Furman could possibly defer or outright reject her as well, even though she’d thought Furman was in the safety category. She’s supposed to hear by Jan 15, although I’ve seen so many other EA applicants get their acceptances and merit money already. Crickets here, though.

She’s pretty down about it, honestly. It’s certainly frustrating for a high-performing kid who has busted her butt in high school. I guess that’s just the nature of the college admission waiting game, though.

2 Likes

Which schools have EA and two ED rounds?

  • University of Chicago
  • Tulane
  • Case Western Reserve University
  • University of Miami

Any others?

1 Like

Northeastern…my son has received many emails encouraging him to switch to ED II.

1 Like

I agree that post is very transparent; it definitely wouldn’t convince me to switch an application to EDII unless Tulane was my child’s first choice and we weren’t looking for merit money.

4 Likes

Love it! Same offer back then, and still feeling it!! Thanks for the memories!

Other colleges with both EA and ED2 (might be missing some):

Santa Clara
Macalester
St Olaf
Colorado College
Bennington
Sarah Lawrence
RPI
Richmond
Babson

1 Like

What the school is looking for is that the applicant will enroll. If they sense that you are not likely to enroll, why would they spend time with you?

College of Wooster also has EA plus ED1 and ED2.

2 Likes

same situation. DD22 diferred fron NEU, top 2 in her 200 class, 4.0/4.5 , SAT 1540, 8 APs , all others honors , published research, well rounded EC, president of NHS … etc. 5 classmates admitted to the same university not nearly as compettive as her on paper, very mid tear candidates. I am sorry , but its a spit in the face. They will not get my 75K a year with this approach, forget ED. She got accepted to Umass honors , UVM honors , UNH honors all with merit money , and Mcgill university in Montreal , already offered her an entrance scholarship. If university positioned themselves as a competitive - their student choices should be based on performance first. EC that build a great resume is a luxury, that some can not produce. Not everyone has a chance to do researcg with NASA … or research with a hospital or biotech company …It shoudl not be expected of a HS kid. what should be expected is a grades and test scores. BTW , NEU also diferred valodictorian my D22 school … super smart guy… so its not only my D22.

3 Likes

OP here, my DS also deferred from NEU! Though accepted to Univ of MD honors and Georgia Tech (OOS) over weekend so he’s a bit less stressed. Your daughter has great options!

4 Likes