If any of my kids were going into Poli Sci, trust me, I and they would research every Poli Sci faculty member at Rutgers :-). My son is a CS major, and he knew the gaps in each and every department of the 16 schools that were in his list, including research interests of particular profs etc. He was telling me – “do you know, there is Szemeredi at Rutgers! There isn’t a mathematician of his class in all of Pennsylvania” , as we were coming back from a Penn State visit (for the younger kid) :-).
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I concur with your observation @neela1.
Kids at any of our “more elite” high schools tend to denigrate Rutgers and mock those who show any interest. Have seen this at my D’s school too. And it’s not justified because Rutgers is pretty good across a lot of majors and is well regarded by local employers.
Above, I wrote that it seems unfair that kids with perfect scores that check all the boxes get shut out from the top 3 tiers of schools. It was suggested that I was trading in hyperbole. A lot of posts then followed discussing how high stats kids do get shut out from all but their safeties. I’m trying to understand where the line is between hyperbole and reality. To this end, my question is: what is the approximate statistical likelihood that an “average excellent kid” gets shut out from let’s say 20-25 “reach-for-everyone” schools (a handful of which are ivy or ivy-equivalents)? Is this answerable? Thanks in advance for attempting to answer this question!
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It is hard answer for the “average excellent kid”. I don’t know what that means. If I see the entire package for a kid, including essays, and know about the other kids in his class, and now of his/her relationship with the recommenders and the reputation in the class, then I’ll have some idea on the odds for any particular school in the top 20-25. It is a study. It takes time to come to a conclusion. There are obviously uncertainties.
Our GC told us that Cornell was a target for my older son. His EA was Princeton. Just before EA decisions, I was going out of town on work. He thought his odds were 5% (because there were 4 legacies, 1 urm, 1 athlete etc applying). I told him his odds were 75%, and my wife was very upset with me. She said, you are going away resetting his expectations. If he doesn’t get in, I have to deal with this. I told her not to worry. He got in. He was the only unhooked person to get in. They took 5 other kids that season. It is not our problem if he didn’t get in. The school would have had egg on its face. He’d be fine if he went to Rutgers. It wouldn’t have mattered.
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InquiringMom- you are looking for an algorithm.
For kids at my own children’s HS who were looking for the “reach for everyone” schools, the pretty wise GC’s had some nifty solutions- reduce bunching. You love JHU? Look at Rice. Nobody from this year’s class is interested in Rice. You should explore it. You (and half the senior class) are applying to both Columbia and NYU. Have you checked out Fordham? You are in love with Williams and/or Amherst- did you look at Middlebury, Bates, Bowdoin?
I don’t know where the “road less traveled” in your area might be, but HS kids tend to “bunch” at the same schools and that will lead to sad faces in April because as awesome as your HS might be, no adcom is taking every single kid that applies, especially if it’s in the double digits.
So the statistical likelihood that a kid from Long Island is getting rejected from Columbia? Pretty high, statistically. I have no idea which kids from Long Island WILL get in, but the majority of them won’t. That same kid is a lot more interesting to Vanderbilt, Kenyon, Earlham, Rhodes, Beloit, Lawrence, Macalester, Tulane, Reed, St. Olaf, Pomona. Same kid. Different set of statistics apply.
I remember the first time I interviewed a graduate of Santa Clara. Brilliant guy. I remember scratching my head- “who the heck has ever heard of Santa Clara?” I was in my 20’s, so forgive my ignorance! And I grew up in New England, and it seems like the only people who left the region for college went to U Chicago or Northwestern (both very popular at my HS).
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She noted he visited, did an interview, attended multiple info sessions, etc. Definitely would have checked the demonstrated interest box.
FWIW, I definitely think it was yield protection. Same thing happened my oldest son’s year. He applied and got in with a huge merit scholarship despite zero demonstrated interest. Some of his peers who had better stats and got into harder schools than him did not. I think he was just in the sweet spot of good but not spectacular stats where school’s didn’t rule him out as a serious prospect. For a student not applying ED, I suspect a perfect test score and GPA make one less likely to be admitted than someone with say a 33 ACT and decent grades.
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I don’t have the answer, but here’s how I’ve interpreted my years of CC lurking:
Assume 5% admission (T10s will have this for RD this cycle) - we can all agree that answer is NOT 5% x 20 schools = 100% chance of admission (or 0% chance of shut out). There is almost no true RANDOMNESS to admissions at T25s even for those above some minimal academic threshold. There is a general sense among CC elders that the same factors that might keep an average excellent out of T20 school “A” might also keep them out of schools “B” - “U” based on what I’ve read here over the years.
We also know it’s not a 100% chance of shut out (0% chance of admission), for obvious reasons.
But I would postulate that correlation between one admission and remaining admissions is HIGH - for every T20 rejection received, the chance that remaining schools admit becomes lower.
And more importantly, once the average excellent has dropped to a range that is “match” (out of T20), the chance of shutout across 5-10 schools is way less, unless there is a problem with LOR or essay.
But nothing in T50, except certain in-state public situations, should be considered a true safety for an average excellent. Too risky.
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Right, but CWRU was never characterized as a safety, in fact the OP was concerned that a deferral could mean rejections from other colleges that were also considered matches because of yield protection.
At our school, if you pick one of the LACs, then the counselling department calls and credibly conveys the message that you are committed. And you demonstrate by applying ED.
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Presumably, that is the norm at the elite prep schools, and such elite prep schools’ dedicated college counselors have enough familiarity and connections to highly selective colleges to encourage specific students to apply (ED if possible) to those specific colleges that are most likely to see them as “fits” from the colleges’ points of view.
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I’m assuming this is a private school? I hate reading about stuff like that because I think it crosses a line. Private school students already have many advantages in terms of quality of education and excellent college counseling. It seems very unfair that they also get a GC who will advocate for them personally with AOs when other kids (many equally talented) will never have that kind of special treatment.
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It is private. The advocacy works only at small LACs where the colleges are genuinely yield starved, and have to manage a 500 kid intake very gently. The advocacy definitely doesn’t work at the public ivys or the research privates – the T20. If you are willing to pay 75k for a Lafayette, I suspect you don’t need a GC calling and advocating for you. You can do it yourself, and it will likely work.
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I’m actually surprised to see Lafayette’s yield is so low. Of course, they only accept 30% of applicants so they seem pretty selective on the surface. Are you suggesting that people who can pay full freight have an advantage as such schools (especially if they go ED)? I wouldn’t be surprised – just more curious.
I go back to - we don’t know who yield protects or doesn’t - and we don’t know how - short of ED - which at some top schools like Barnard (near 60%), Penn (over half) - are obviously yield protecting.
To me, deferral gives the school two legs up to help with yield:
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Maybe you are offended and withdraw
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Maybe you are admitted elsewhere ED and withdraw…we all know you are supposed to but not everyone does so in theory one could still get accepted.
That’s two situations where - having someone pulled out of the “potential” acceptance pool would also help with yield - i.e. you’re not admitting someone who has zero intent of attending.
We continue to tie deferral to rejection - and I don’t think you can genuinely make that argument. Some are hurt, offended and I get that - but these kids have yet to be rejected.
It’s a simple matter of - you weren’t willing to commit up front to the school and therefore the school isn’t yet willing to commit to you.
We truly don’t know what each school is thinking about each kid, etc.
Thanks, everyone! Not sure if this helps: “average excellent student” = 3.9 W; 4.7 UW; 1570 one-sitting. Competitive high school in the middle of the country. No ranking. Most rigorous classes across the board except language. Math spike (currently taking graduate level math at state flagship bc of love of subject). Musician of multiple instruments. 4 year varsity athlete. Service. Normal ECs. Research. No hooks, no leadership, no competitions, no awards, no inventions or businesses or nonprofits, no bells or whistles really at all. Recommendations and essays probably reflect that kid cares an above average amount about being a decent human being and learning. That’s it. Algorithm please. (Just joking!).
Quite obviously right? :-). They are very need aware.
Of course, I didn’t really want to make this specific but a more general question……
That package should get you into a top 20. You need to package it well, and have a coherent narrative. The essay is important. The leadership part alone is nice to have among the buckets you listed. But leadership is broadly interpreted. The service could be parlayed as leadership.
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I haven’t really seen anyone say that. The main discussion on this thread has been about yield protection being one of the reasons for deferment.
But, having said that… it’s widely believed that a deferral is indeed a “soft reject” at the Ivies.
Of course, that’s not the case at most other colleges. Others fall into 3 categories:
- MIT defers 2/3rds because they only make selected picks in EA and want to see the whole application pool together. They say this openly so there’s no guessing required.
- Some like Stanford/Caltech defer only those that are genuinely on the border, so a deferral is definitely not a rejection.
- Those that want to take a 2nd look/didn’t get a chance to review all apps due to volume/concerned about yield
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This is changing. GCs at a private school in my area informed parents and students that AOs were no longer willing to talk to them.
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