Question about "yield protection"

Applying to College
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Many a school ends up overenrolled - I suppose that’s better for them than under enrollment - Purdue ever year, Bama, Tampa and many more I’m sure.

They don’t publish RD / ED rates but they have to be much lower - so it’s too much “risk” for them - because if you’re charging $60K a year (just for tuition), there’s sticker shock and many will see they can go elsewhere for less. If you tell a kid earlier they’re in and they’re excited, mentally they may have themselves there for months that it’s ingrained (like if they learn in December) vs. if they find out in March.

On the other hand, they use merit to make people think they’re special - but truth is they’re meeting a cost the market will bear (for top students).

If your student is qualified, I’d still have expectations - but you need to have reaches, matches and safeties - and you need to apply to “enough” schools. With Common app, it’s easier to apply to more schools - why so many apply to 20+.

As for ED, totally a personal call - and I’m like you - in part, because while I can afford full pay, I didn’t want to afford full pay.

There’s another chain where someone was rejected to Penn ED1 and now wants to do a polar opposite Tufts for ED2. The student is glad they were turned down ED1 to Penn realizing it wasn’t right. Well that could happen to anyone ED…so that’s a concern too.

You’ll have no issues (assuming you hit the target and safeties. Think about if the average kid is applying to 8-10 schools, the yield is 12.5% to 10%, etc. not sure of the exact # on average but it has to be in the 7-8 range I’d assume.

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Lindagaf
I hear you on Northeastern- and its a good example. In my day, I had never even heard of the place. Until my kids got to HS, when I did hear of it, I thought it must be a Northwestern wantabe. Carnegie Melon in the same boat- when did it become so good?

I guess CWRU sees the NE playbook and is all in. Cleveland ain’t Boston, so they might not be able to replicate.

But to put a finer point on my comments:
1- ED at CWRU is much less a risk to the larger applicant pool than might be thought. They still have to fill ALOT of seats from kids who won’t commit to exclusivity. CWRU just doesn’t wield that power yet to fill a huge portion of its class through ED. So I don’t think anyone should be pressured into EDing.
2- My fact pattern indicates to me the EA and RD crowd need to send out all possible smoke signals that they WILL come if accepted. Essays, clicks, visits, whatever. And given how deeply they dig into the wait list (a real surprise) applicants should expect this could be a long process. Unless you ED there, expect it could go well into the Spring.
3- If you are qualified, willing to wait and really demonstrate interest, you likely get in. I do think they (CWRU) run the risk of losing truly interest kids who want to wrap things up early, but they must know this. I think my family falls into that category. Maybe we are in the minority, but we’d like to get them all lined up in Dec/Jan, compare and make a decision. We are unlikely to wait for the cat and mouse case game to play out if it comes to it. We are willing to show real interest, but don’t feel the need to prove it over months of waiting.

Great discussion.

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This was our experience! D20 loved a meets full need school with no loans in FA packages and we needed (lots of) aid. NPC showed something we could live with. She was a high stat applicant and could have gone to our state flagship with merit money but why? Her school still costs us less. We feel like both parties won - the school got a student who was at/above their top 25% and they increased diversity from the SES standpoint while she is getting a T20 education for less than an instate public price. Bonus points for having the entire process wrapped up before Christmas, too.

I do think ED puts the squeeze on those who make too much for generous aid and don’t have a hefty 529 account. Getting merit money is less black and white than demonstrating need.

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BINGO.
The middle.
High costs of living get crushed - topic for another forum- because income is looked at but not costs.

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Most cannot make a decision by Dec / Jan. You’d need to ED or hit a school with rolling admissions. Some schools like UGA or U of SC announce earlier. But many are Feb or later. And many get waitlisted.

Case had 29k applicants. 8800 admitted. Here’s the game. More than 9700 offered WL of which 4900 took their spot and nearly 1100 were offered admission. A third of applicants waitlisted…and these kids feel ‘good enough’. It’s more like you are an insurance policy.

Btw yield and this includes ED. 1305/8804 or 15% for ‘20 - 21. So their big thing is to use the WL. While we don’t know how many ED there, their RD yield must be extremely low.

Now look at a school one notch above. Emory. Nearly 5400 acceptances of a bit over 28k applicants. Their waitlist. 5215. Still high. But half as large. 477 admitted. But still almost 1/5 waitlisted. I won’t tell my D. She felt good about it thinking she was close. Or my son at WUSTL. I never looked at the #s b4.

Their yield. 25%. Still not huge when you factor in a likely substantial ED. 5407 acceptances in 20/21 and 1344 enrollees.

I think these schools are masterful at marketing. But perhaps in many cases the results aren’t being backed up so perhaps the marketing isn’t that masterful ? They clearly tug at the emotions of kids tho.

But again if the average applies to 8 schools (just a guess), the avg yield would be 12.5%. So if you are ahead you’re doing well. Someone like my kids got into 13 and 17 so they’re killing the schools they didn’t attend.

I’m sure these schools are deep diving every nuance to ensure their campus is full, the federal research $$ flow in and the business operates efficiently. That’s what it is. A business.

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I think the same thing happened with me for Fordham EA this cycle. I have a 1470 SAT, 3.97 UW, 4.54 W and did the optional essay and applied CS. I got deferred. If anyone could give input on if its truly yield protection, please do.

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I wonder which are the popular universities that require housing deposits before acceptance. I haven’t even been thinking of this.

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I think it is important to look at CWRU’s behavior over time, not just as a snapshot. And also in the context of what other schools have done to rise in prestige ranks before them. Notably - University of Chicago, Vanderbilt, Northeastern, etc. This isn’t a vacuum. It is a long game, and CWRU is at the beginning of it. The stakes are pretty high because of the demographic cliff that is coming in a few years.

These schools know where they are in the pecking order. They know if they get cast-offs from elites. University of Chicago pulled itself out of second tier to a national elite. CWRU is trying to do the same thing. I am guessing, but I suspect the goal is to become the first choice of elite students 5-10 years from now.
The University of Chicago model, used by the others:
(1) flood the market with marketing
(2) full court press on getting as many applications as possible, regardless of quality
(3) target specific populations (eg unhooked high performing prep school kids that can be full pay but are likely not to be admitted to the elites), and pay them to attend via merit (thereby setting up a reliable supply of high performing full pay students in the future)
(4) have as many rounds of admissions as possible to lock down the target students as the admissions season progresses, especially EDII because that’s when those highly desirable students who were rejected by their first choice become available.

If you are a school rising in prestige EA and EDII are more about getting a huge number of apps and lowering the admit rate than about yield. High yield is a luxury that schools only really get to manipulate after they get control of the early stages of their pipeline (1-4 above). University of Chicago can think about yield, Vanderbilt is starting to, but CWRU- based on how low their current yield is, I doubt that is what they are focused on.

My suspicion is, unless an EA applicant is on their short list for first round draft picks, schools don’t spend a lot of time evaluating them - they go into the RD pile without judgment, no offense intended. University of Chicago hardly takes anyone out of EA, because they actually get a lot of ED1 these days to choose from and they don’t need to hook people with merit so much anymore. In contrast, my bet is that CWRU has fewer ED1 applicants, and their ED population is mostly EDII. So EA serves as an opportunity to cherry pick very specific targets that suit their long term goals, and get their attention with money. They just have a wider set of needs than University of Chicago.

So if an EA kid has a profile that makes them a solid “get” for CWRU, but they get deferred, I don’t think it is about yield. I just don’t think the school has evaluated them yet because on the surface they aren’t on their highest priority list vis a vis their long term goals.

Both sides are doing the same thing. The kid applies EA to get an edge, but ultimately is going to compare offers after RD decisions come in. The school is doing the same thing - getting an edge on a select few, but waiting to see what else comes in for the RD round. It is nothing personal.

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I’m sorry you were deferred and I hope you get good news on other apps.! I don’t think anyone will be able to tell you definitively if this is a case of yield protection, just as my son won’t know for CWRU. However, I would encourage you to continue to show interest in Fordham through the ways discussed on this thread. Continue to update your admissions rep. with important achievements, write a thoughtful LOCI, and continue to do well inside and outside of the classroom. Good luck!

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Since the start of the UNWR rankings in 1984, UChicago has ranked in the range from 3 to 15. The first year they were 6. Hardly pulling yourself out from the slums. Columbia has a larger range (2-18). They started at 18.

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There’s a cost to the college when a high stat kid turns down a scholarship. They have to go find a replacement. Colleges don’t just throw out merit scholarships to everyone.

Also, over enrollment is a thing. Lots of threads on CC. Tampa comes to mind last year. Impacted kids from our HS. No on-campus housing.

You’re correct about ED not really being for donut-hole families. It is what it is.

Btw. Carnegie Mellon has been good for a very long time.

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This is especially true if your snapshot is the 2020-21 cycle when Covid was a stick in the spokes and the numbers at many schools got thrown off. For example, while CWRU had to turn to the WL for 1076 students in 2020, it only accepted 209 applicants off the waitlist in 2019, and it accepted zero applicants off the waitlist in 2018.

This. When a school’s yield is low (as is CWRU’s), it is probably a pretty good indication that the school isn’t focused on manipulating yield, but rather is more focused on other aspects of admission, like trying to fill the class with students who have the characteristics these colleges are seeking (even if a lot of these students may end up turning them down.)

The disconnect comes in misunderstanding what the colleges are seeking. Those with high grades and test scores think that this should be sufficient, but from the college’s perspective, the decisions are rarely about just grades and test scores.

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Just an aside, but Carnegie Mellon has consistently been ranked in the top 25 since I was a student. I graduated 28 years ago. We were usually around 23rd then and I think it is 25th now, so that hasn’t changed. Also, they tend to value stats highly. Your comparison just doesn’t make sense with CMU.

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The last CDS for Fordham was 2019-20.

Looks like 38K applicants and 22K acceptances - I’m rounding - so about 58%.

8,603 were on the WL - so outright rejections are to few.

Looks like the 25/75 SAT two years ago was 1240 to 1450.Looks like they were TO but most submitted - today a lot less do.

What @CateCAParent says makes a lot of sense. Obviously we don’t know exactly what happens but it makes sense to take the cream of the crop and lump everyone else together for later.

What’s scary to me after reading all these CDS are how many people are getting put on wait list. It’s insane - these kids are sitting on pins and needles hoping their #s are going to get called - and they’re taking 20 or 30 % of the applicants and throwing them on a list. Crazy.

I would play the game - if you are deferred, do the necessary steps.

Send the LOCI or check the box on their website, send the grades, keep opening emails. Honestly, I would open them for my kid. I’d play videos and walk away. She had school - she was stressed…it’s so dumb but they track that stuff.

Anyway, play for you -not them - but keep your options open. While it’s two year old data, seems you’ll be an in at Fordham.

They have class of 25 on the website - it shows 58% acceptances. 35% men and 65% women. 44% persons of color and 49% white. The rest are unknown or two or more races.

23% first gen.

So a very very diverse crowd - and not sure of your diversity - but perhaps that’s a factor here…i.e. they seek heavy diversity up front.

The SAT here shows 1340/1480 so there you’re at the top - but a bit below.

What you don’t know is…what # of that 58% that applied EA was admitted after deferred. And my guess is it’s large and you are in that crowd.

btw - maybe they don’t meet need - but vs. a Tufts for example which is very low - they give need based grants to 57% - 5215/9141 - so that’s strong. Clearly going after a different student.

Good luck to you - it will all work out.

Undergraduate Admission Facts | Fordham

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It would depend on your definition of second tier, but as eeyore pointed out, its USN rankings over the years is better than all but five colleges, only HYPSM have an aggregate higher ranking. If you’re saying that Chicago loses most of its cross-admit battles with Harvard, sure but guess what most colleges do (Harvard wins about 85-90% vs say Brown). I didn’t attend UC and I’m not a huge fan of their early policies either.

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What I don’t like about the UCs and Gtown, etc. is their individual apps. Just seems like a lot more work…having to get duplicated LORs, etc.

Granted - when I applied to college, I think I did 9 and that was a lot. But I had to type my apps and each was an entire project - whereas today with Common App, you, for many schools, answer 10 or 20 questions and stroke a check…or rather enter a CC # and done.

But since technology has given us common app - why can’t everyone get on the same page.

All the duplicative work would make me not want to apply - and as our teachers are stressed, it’s just another unecessary thing.

You want to apply to UCLA and U of NC - you need to get two reqs from one teacher.

It’s time for everyone to play nice.

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UCLA does not accept LOR’s routinely, only for special programs like Nursing and Theater which is a small minority of the 120,000+ applicants.

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Sorry -my bad - Gtown - just in general schools that make you do it all again…but you are correct on UCs.

In other words, I wish everyone was on Common…even my son’s school Alabama isn’t…although that was literally a 10 minute app also with no recs.

But there are some that have their own app - that’s all I’m railing against.

Thanks for the correction.

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My D22 applied to 13 schools and had to do 7 different apps — I am not sure the Common App is all that common, particularly for many public universities. But I think only one school not on the Common App required letters of recommendation.

It did occur to me that using an independent app is a way for a school to establish a student has a sincere interest and the school is more than a last-minute panicked add-on to an already completed Common App.

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I get that part - about you have to really want it - but with so much stress on students and teachers…I wish at least the LORs could be common.

But I get it. Thanks for your insight.