I think that you are right that the bright, motivated URM kid from class of '24 will do fine even if racial preferences are overturned, even if they wind up at their flagship state U. But there are two important issues. One is that Harvard, and some of the other Ivies, give more generous fin aid, all grants, so an URM who is in need of fin aid might really have a tough time with the loans to attend flagship state U, as opposed to the likely all grant package they’d get at an Ivy, especially Harvard. The second is that it is most definitely NOT a “slight margin” of gain in an admissions cycle right now. It’s about a 15% increase in valuation of stats, give or take a bit, in descending order of AA male, AA female, Hispanic male, Hispanic female. It’s a pretty big thumb on the scale. You can even see evidence of it on CC - if an Asian student posts perfect scores, a string of perfect APs, a gorgeous GPA, and very impressive ECs, in a chance me, the responses are, “Great stats. But remember, your chance of getting into any T20 schools, let alone tippy-top schools, is very small, so remember to choose your match and safety schools with care (since that’s likely where you’re going)”. If an AA male posts very nice, but significantly lesser stats than those, the responses are, “You could conceivably get in anywhere. Yes, choose match and safety, but you have a very good chance at any, even all of those top schools.”
Every year, there are news stories of high achieving AA males who get into EVERY Ivy, plus every tippy-top school. Sometimes there are sweet stories of all 4 quadruplet AA males all getting into Yale. There is never a story of a white or Asian applicant who has this experience - at least I’ve never seen one.
So if there are parents of AA students who are class of '24 who have tippy-top or Ivy aspirations, especially if they are in need of the great loan-free fin aid that they may offer, yes, it might make sense to apply for the '23 cycle, to take advantage of the racial preferences currently in effect.