^^My daughter was ‘one and done.’ The school she liked has automatic admissions and automatic merit (not that much in her case) so we knew the financials before applying. It was an overall good fit for her. I explained that if anything went wrong she’d have no back up and have to take a gap year, and she was fine with that. Once she had the sweatshirt, there was no turning back.
D’s list in our house is broken down into safeties, match/reach and reach schools. She is very likely NMF so her safeties are automatic merit schools she likes, two full ride, two full tuition with possible stacking. She has five match/reach schools including most of her favorites. These are a varied group of admissions matches that offer large competitive merit awards up to full rides. Her one true reach is an academic match that gives good, but not great merit. Kind of the ‘if we hit the lottery’ school, which at least has an application waiver and is her second favorite school.
When my D started HS I informed her that for financial reasons she would be limited to in-state publics only. I did some basic research for her at her request and she selected three schools ; a reach (state flagship), a likely match and a safety (local regional). She is happy with all three choices and I told her to be flexible and not fall in love with any one school (don’t buy the t-shirt yet!).
She set he academic goals to turn the reach into a match. As she moves closer to reaching her academic goals the possibility of merit aid opens up. If she does not melt down in her junior year we will be able to add an in-state private as a financial reach based on merit aid.
D only built her list on schools that we could afford according to the net price calculator (some of which estimated merit award.) They ranged nicely from academic safety to academic reach. When the acceptances came in, they were all within range financially.
There were a couple freebie applications D threw in where merit potential was very high but she was never very serious about them. When the numbers came in with acceptance, even with high merit, they were still a good 5K out of reach.
We plan on taking same approach with S when his time comes up but perhaps explore more automatic merit schools for him.
If she has high stats, there could be potential other affordable schools (including potential safeties – see http://automaticfulltuition.yolasite.com/ ) to consider. If she makes National Merit, there is this list at http://nmfscholarships.yolasite.com/ to consider.
We have the same issue. My D needs merit money at any private university. She will not qualify for any need-based aid. This has limited our search quite a bit. So many potential matches have been eliminated because we know she just can’t go there. And there is no point at all in applying to any academic reaches. Even if she won the admissions lottery, we can’t afford it so its not worth the effort and cost of applying. She is applying to two private schools that are in the match range but she needs money at both so for all practical purposes, those are her reaches. She has three publics on her list which we can afford (two with automatic merit), and one private which has automatic merit that bring it into the affordable range for us. She is only planning to apply to 6 schools.
Thanks @ucbalumnus,
NMF looks possible if PSAT matches her practice test.
I should have added a little more detail. We are in Florida so her reach is UF, which is looking closer to a match now. Her safety is UCF which is full ride +$$$ for NMF, guaranteed admission if in top 10% HS class. The State of Florida offers the Florida Incentive Scholarship that, based on state funding, tries to keep NMF in state by offering a full ride to the in-state publics. FIS can also be used at UMiami, which will make that school affordable for us.
I am not up on all the details of FIS, it seems a little tricky, but I will get up to speed quickly if the PSAT score looks good. No chickens to count yet.
Basically, we are happy with in-state options due to affordability and good options based on her stats.
If the expected aid/scholarship/whatever doesn’t make it close to within budget, then it’s not on the list to begin with.
How you define ‘expected’ is our issue. It’s harder for us right now b/c our D has not yet taken actual tests yet, all we have to go on are grades/ECs and practice tests. We think she’ll be in line for merit, but not sure how significant it might be. Our list is focusing on the school having the program(s) she is interested in (today), as well as other non-academic factors. Relatively long list, IMO, so I can’t wait to whittle it down with her.
I’ve taken a look at college navigator, to see what percent of the student body receives an average of how much institutional aid. If 99% of the student body receives an average of $10,000, for example, then I figure we can probably hope for something around that number.
@2muchquan Scholarship would be hard to predict without real score, but need based aid can. So if one runs the NPC and it is unaffordable and do not expect a test score above the 75th percentile, it should be off the list.
@bjkmom Yeah, I get that use of average merit, but it also says to me that there is a chance for more. So, let’s say it’s a school D really, really, really like that has a $10K average award. If I need $15K to make it affordable according to the NPC, do I take it off the list? If that’s the case, I’m really bad at this! 
@billcsho I think every school on the list, D is above the 75% in grades and expected test score. We are definitely going after some merit.
Re #31
The problem with assessing reach or match with merit is that there is little public data on which to make such an assessment in most cases. If a large enough scholarship is possible, but not assured for stats, it may be best to classify it as a reach.
“So, let’s say it’s a school D really, really, really like that has a $10K average award. If I need $15K to make it affordable according to the NPC, do I take it off the list? If that’s the case, I’m really bad at this!”
I think you need to look at the situation more deeply. $5000 is a lot but not insurmountable. Take a close look at the COA. Do you really need to spend that much. Our D1 spent about $500 her entire freshman year on personal expenses. She is frugal by nature but that literally saved nearly $1000 on her COA. Look at all of the options for meal plans. Sometimes universities default to a more expensive plan. At 1 college the difference was nearly $1000/yr. between the most expensive and the cheapest meal plan. Check books. Universities often inflate the cost of books. Check out purchasing books on line, used books or ebooks if you have a note pad or e reader. Did you factor in working. They may not get Work Study, however, they might be able to work and make $1200 or so during the year to contribute. Did you consider summer work? Students can usually make $1-3k over the summer. You may be eligible for a tax credit of up to $2500 I believe. Did you consider that? Are there regional scholarships they might be able to apply for? If you can overcome the shortfall by saving or earning it can become an affordable option. However, if you can’t make it work it’s not $5000 over 1 year it’s more like $20,000 over 4 years.
On the flip side be aware of year tuition/room and board increases in future years. If you live far enough away that you need to fly that can increase costs over the projected COA.
To add to this, the NPC will probably not be exact. When we did this, if the NPC was close, and D really liked the school, then she applied with FULL knowledge that if she was admitted but the $ didn’t come in, she would have to turn that school down. I’m glad we did this. Two schools were more generous with FA than the NPC predicted, and she is at one of those schools today.
Another thing to consider is the risk of needing semesters beyond 8, for students not at the top-end of high school achievement. The 9th semester may be particularly expensive, since scholarships may run out and financial aid get reduced after 8 semesters, and students and parents are less willing to drop out with graduation so close.
I’m still new at this.
But if the numbers are CLOSE, I would keep the school under consideration.
But if it’s too large a gap, I would simply move on.
I definitely wouldn’t take a favorite school that costs $5,000 too much off the list this early in the game. It sounds like your D still has at least a couple more years yet to go. And you don’t know yet what financial aid might give you. Plus a kid who really wants to go to her dream school can easily earn $5,000 a year by working full-time during the summer and part-time during the school year. And she might get a merit scholarship that she can take to any school to help offset costs.
Our strategy: We are CA. residents with NMF likely status who can afford UC in-state tuition. We apply to as many UCs as the kid is willing to attend (3-4 matches), at least one NMF automatic merit (free tuition) scholarship school (1-2 safeties), plus however many expensive, private reach schools that make sense for the kid’s intended major – to see what acceptances and financial aid packages we get from the various private elite schools (reaches). We might throw in 1-2 competitive merit apps to see if we hit the jackpot with full ride scholarships at top 10-25 ranked schools (1-2 super reaches). Probably also a couple of apps to schools with decent reputations for their major who are offering no fee, Common App with high likelihood of merit $$ (no downside since it’s free and we’re already doing the Common App anyway, but possible upside if enough merit $$ is offered).
Note that I said if the test score is below 75th percentile, financial reach school should be removed from the list as merit scholarship is not likely to happen. Nevertheless, usually only around 10% of students with score and GPA above the 75th percentile may actually receive merit scholarship.