<p>Actually, the data I've seen is not at all consistent with originaloog's (BTW, cool screen name. what does it mean?) hypothesis. The CB research, which is clearly more relevant, for technical reasons, for nonelite colleges, has shown that HS grades are the best predictor of college grades, that the SAT reduces varance by another 0.1 or less. But even with both predictors, only about 1/3 of the variance in grades is accounted for.</p>
<p>What this means is that, as afan said neither the SAT nor HS GPA are good predictors of college success, so they can't predict whether a kid will be in the top or bottom half, since that's based on grades. </p>
<p>As others have said, it may be intuitive, but that does not make it correct. </p>
<p>I have no doubt that some kids "get it" and some don't. I also know from experience that kids with stellar records from HS can have a tough time "getting it" - depending on what's expected. In fact, many of these stellar kids excel at a rather rote, formulaic kind of learning, after all, a lot of HS work is of that nature. Since a lot of college is the same way, they can do well in some fields. But not others.</p>
<p>Heck, there is so much variance in the ability, motivation and interests of HS kids, AND so much variance in the intellectual content of various college curricula, that I'm surprised there's any correlation between HSGPA and college success!</p>