<p>Now that apps are all away we have time for idle speculation.
I always thought that the acceptance rate of 6 or 7 % does not really give the best estimate for someone who would be happy to get into any of the HYPSM (and I would assume that is the case for 99% of us!)
This rate is simply number of acceptance letter divided by number of students applied. This accurate for each school. But what about for all the the schools?
For that you need the number of actual freshman slots (numerator) divided by the number of distinct applicants (denominator) .
Even the numerator is not so easy to come by. Estimating each freshman class about 1500, with MIT little smaller and Stanford a little bigger, you get 7,500.
The denominator is even more problematic. Most people apply to more than one of these five schools, and you cannot use the total number of applicants.
But let me try. Since Stanford and Yale have exclusive EA, which de facto makes MIT EA also exclusive, you can simply use the number of EA applicants from these three schools. They do not duplicate. You have now about 20,000 distinct applicants.
Most of these will be deferred and rejected and will apply to Harvard and Princeton so they are already counted. Some do not care for EA and have not been counted at all. The tough question is how many more distinct applicants?
If you double the pool, the denominator comes to 40,000, and the answer to the question, "Out of those who apply to one or more the HYPSM schools, what are the odds that they will be accepted to any one of the schools?" is a whopping 18%!
Anyone else cares to speculate? Feel free to criticize my methodology and assumptions.</p>
<p>I’d estimate that HYPSM receives about that’s 120k applications. Divide that by your 40,000, and you’re assuming that on average, someone applying to any of HYPSM also applies to two others. I don’t think that’s accurate. I hope it’s not. Personally I care more about the details of a school than I do about the prestige. I did apply to two though.</p>
<p>I feel like if you took 100 kids who applied to one or more of these schools, less than 18 got in.</p>
<p>That is the question I want to know. Out of those who apply to HYPSM, on the average how many they apply to? 2? 3? just 1? or all 5?</p>
<p>Our D applied to all (HYPSM) plus others. Of the HYPSM, got into Stanford.</p>
<p>I think that to even attempt to estimate the number of cross-applicants and the proportion of cross-admits that exist within this population is impossible. It would be nice to know what one’s chances are to get into one of the five schools if they applied to all, or any number, but to statistically derive, whether by formula or by anectdotal study, isn’t feasible due to the subjective nature and lack of independence between each admission case.</p>
<p>When you undernumbers the reality of who’s getting in and the supporting numbers are well BELOW what is published.</p>
<p>Half the seats are gone before they look at most applications. About 17% are recruited athletes, 20% are URMs, then legacies, staff kids and development.</p>
<p>These colleges are social experiments. So they want kids from 50 states, as many countries as possible…they need the rich, the middle class, the poor…</p>
<p>In all honestly, chances of just a good, high stats, unconnected kid getting in today are minuscule. This used to be just true of HYPS, it’s now extended to the ivies that will also be under the incredible under 10% this year (Brown, Columbia Dartmouth).</p>
<p>2C2C, thanks for the depressing analysis, I am neither recruited athlete, URM, or legacies. I am screwed.</p>
<p>
I don’t quite buy this analysis. The recruited athletes, yes, they’re in before other apps are looked at. The development admits, same thing, but that’s a very small number.</p>
<p>Legacies, staff kids, and URMs are different. They get a boost, to be sure, but they still must compete for their spots. They’re not ushered in the side door before the other apps are read the way the athletes are.</p>
<p>I’m winging it here, but I’d guess no more than 25% of the seats are gone before they look at most applications.</p>
<p>Aside from that minor quibble, I basically agree with 2college2college’s point. Acceptance rates for the unhooked are maybe half the overall acceptance rates.</p>
<p>^I agree. It’s not like they’re specifically trying to fill certain spots with URMs like they are with recruits</p>
<p>^ Exactly. And even if a school has an unofficial goal of admitting, say 500 URMs in a given year, they won’t just accept the first 500 to apply, those applicants will be judged against the greater URM pool.</p>
<p>In a similar way, the athletes aren’t just waltzing in the side door. They must successfully compete among the pool of academically qualified athletes. This competition among athletes isn’t judged by the adcoms, though; it is done by the coaches who chose which athletes to support.</p>
<p>I really don’t think your “real acceptance rate to HYPSM” is useful. It’s neither accurate nor meaningful.</p>