Regular Decision at competitive schools: 2012 statistics are showing up

<p>thanks guys. Yeah Dean J is a she.</p>

<p>UChicago is a little under 28% thus far - from Libby Pearson's blog:</p>

<p>"You know that we saw a 45 percent increase in early action applications. With the 10 percent increase in regular notification applications, the boost in applications leveled out to a 20 percent increase overall--12,300 applicants. We also admitted fewer students – around 3,400 instead of our usual 3,600. We put more students on the waiting list and hope to use it more than we did last year, the number to be determined by the kind of response we get by May 1."</p>

<p>To break those numbers down further, the Early Decision acceptance rate was about 33%, and the rate of acceptances for the pool of Regular Decision applicants plus deferred applicants appears to have been only about 19%.</p>

<p>To put this in perspective, the overall 27.6% acceptance rate this year at the University of Chicago compares to a rate of about 36% last year, and 40% the year before that. The way things are going, they'll be in Ivy League territory pretty soon in terms of acceptance rates. (They're already there in terms of academics.)</p>

<p>Donna (proud parent of a very happy son J., who used to post on the University of Chicago forum as "mosevios" [a slight misspelling of my mother's maiden name!], and who was accepted at the U of C last week)</p>

<p>BU gave accepted students the acceptance data. Let me do some copypasta: </p>

<p>Applicants: 38,004
Projected Enrollment: 4,200</p>

<p>High School Class Rank
* Boston University Four-Year Colleges
Top 10% — 67%
Top 15% — 81%
Top 25% — 94%</p>

<pre><code>* Boston University Total
Top 10% — 61%
Top 15% — 81%
Top 25% — 94%
</code></pre>

<p>Average Rank in Class</p>

<pre><code>* Boston University Four-Year Colleges
Top 91%

  • Boston University College of General Studies Top 79% </code></pre>

<p>Grade Point Average</p>

<pre><code>* Boston University Four-Year Colleges
3.6 (Predominantly A-)

  • Boston University College of General Studies 3.3 (Predominantly B+) </code></pre>

<p>Standardized Tests
SAT (CR/MT) / SAT (WR) / ACT
* Boston University Four-Year Colleges (average)
1332 / 665 / 29
* Boston University Four-Year Colleges (Middle 50%)
1260-1400 / 620-710 / 28-31
* Boston University College of General Studies (average)<br>
1182 / 603 / 26
* Boston University College of General Studies (Middle 50%)<br>
1130-1230 / 560-640 / 24-27</p>

<p>Valedictorians: 457
Salutatorians: 275 </p>

<p>Geographic Diversity:</p>

<pre><code> * Mid-Atlantic: 37%
* New England: 25%
* Pacific (incl. AK and HI): 15%
* South (incl. PR): 9%
* Midwest: 8%
* Southwest: 4%
* West: 2%
</code></pre>

<p>I think this year has been much more competitive than 2 years ago when my oldest S applied, especially as predicted for the girls. My D has been rejected from more than one school that was a real surprise. I think as someone mentioned that kids really are getting rejected for having no room, not because they are not qualified.</p>

<p>But as a wise person said to me yesterday---"it only takes one" and we've already got at least one :)</p>

<p>^^^ Oh please, TokenAdult - give me some crumb of hope that my second child won't face quite the maelstrom that we are witnessing right now. If things are really just going to keep getting more competitive, I'm going to start cultivating her love for extreme safeties right now.</p>

<p>I know GW also had an all time record low acceptance rate, I think someone said its 33% this year, but don't yet know the exact statistics.</p>

<p>"I'm going to start cultivating her love for extreme safeties right now."</p>

<p>A little birdie told me to do that this year.....So far that little birdie was very, very wise....D has been accepted at all safeties and 1 match, waitlisted at 1 match......the other matches have become reaches between October and now......(that is what could not be accounted for....)</p>

<p>This is the peak year for number of high school graduates, but since the number goes down gradually in the next few years, next year won't be that much less competitive. It is true that the number of high school graduates going to college could increase, but no one knows if that will happen.</p>

<p>mammall,
That would be a very wise strategy to take. As many veteran parents on CC have repeatedly suggested, students should build their college list from the bottom up- find the safeties that they would be happy at, and then look for matches and reaches. And congrats on your D's acceptance at Stanford!</p>

<p>Now is the time of year when colleges try to "spin" their admission news. There is an industry standard way of calculating admission rates and yield for all colleges in the United States, and that is the way of the Common Data Set Initiative </p>

<p>Common</a> Data Set Initiative </p>

<p>which is a joint effort of the College Board and major college guidebook publishers (Petersons hosts the Common Data Set website) and an attempt to get all colleges to speak the same language about their admission statistics. I'll paste in ALL the questions about admission numbers here: </p>

<p>C. FIRST-TIME, FIRST-YEAR (FRESHMAN) ADMISSION</p>

<p>Applications
C1. First-time, first-year (freshman) students: Provide the number of degree-seeking, first-time, first-year students who applied, were admitted, and enrolled (full- or part-time) in fall 2007. Include early decision, early action, and students who began studies during summer in this cohort. Applicants should include only those students who fulfilled the requirements for consideration for admission (i.e., who completed actionable applications) and who have been notified of one of the following actions: admission, non-admission, placement on waiting list, or application withdrawn (by applicant or institution). Admitted applicants should include wait-listed students who were subsequently offered admission.</p>

<p>Total first-time, first-year (freshman) men who applied</p>

<p>Total first-time, first-year (freshman) women who applied</p>

<p>Total first-time, first-year (freshman) men who were admitted</p>

<p>Total first-time, first-year (freshman) women who were admitted</p>

<p>Total full-time, first-time, first-year (freshman) men who enrolled</p>

<p>Total part-time first-time, first-year (freshman) men who enrolled</p>

<p>Total full-time, first-time, first-year (freshman) women who enrolled</p>

<p>Total part-time first-time, first-year (freshman) women who enrolled</p>

<p>C2. Freshman wait-listed students (students who met admission requirements but whose final admission was contingent on space availability)</p>

<p>Do you have a policy of placing students on a waiting list?</p>

<p>Yes No </p>

<p>If yes, please answer the questions below for fall 2007 admissions:</p>

<p>Number of qualified applicants offered a place on waiting list</p>

<p>Number accepting a place on the waiting list</p>

<p>Number of wait-listed students admitted</p>

<p>Is your waiting list ranked?</p>

<p>Yes No </p>

<p>If yes, do you release that information to students?</p>

<p>Yes No </p>

<p>Do you release that information to school counselors?</p>

<p>Yes No </p>

<p>Some of the colleges that have announced a new, lower than ever, base admission rate for this year may make more offers of admission yet, from the wait list, depending on what the group of students admitted now decides to do about enrolling. And I suppose a few hundred of those students are today awaiting news from an Ivy League college before deciding what to do about accepting an offer of admission from a non-Ivy national university. Maybe the dean of admissions at each college that has already announced has calculated the college's expected yield just right, but if the dean hasn't, the college will still be making more offers of admission this year. </p>

<p>Thus base admission rate and yield are distinct issues, but their relationship at this time of the year is that no college knows yet what its yield will be. Some colleges may be resorting to their waiting lists this year, in which case they will be making more offers of admission yet, thus raising their base admission rates. </p>

<p>As a broader phenomenon, and it's funny how this happens around the time of April Fools Day each year, every college sends out a press release (often also sent by email to applicants, current students, parents of current students, and alumni) right after it makes its admission decisions. The press release touts the wonderful characteristics of the admitted applicants, who indeed are all wonderful. But not all of the wonderfulness of that group of admitted applicants will ultimately reflect glory on the college sending out the press release. The majority of colleges in the United States have yields below 50 percent, which means that fully half or more of the admitted applicants end up enrolling somewhere else. As a general rule, admitted applicants enroll at their favorite colleges, so some colleges that are second-choice colleges for a lot of applicants end up losing most of the top half of their group of admitted applicants to more favored colleges. Colleges try to seize mindshare at this time of year by announcing preliminary base acceptance rate figures (which increase after the college admits students from the wait list) and preliminary figures about test score levels of the ADMITTED class, which in all but a very few cases will be higher than the test score levels of the eventual ENROLLED class. Most colleges do this, so I'm not saying this is any more nefarious than the usual "spin" you get from politicians or consumer product companies, but bear in mind that the only way to compare colleges fairly by a shared set of definitions is to wait till the following turn of the year, when Common Data Set information for each college is released. See the College QuickFinder application on the College Board website for examples of fall 2007 enrolled class (that is, class of 2011 college graduating class) data for various colleges. </p>

<p>College</a> Search - Stanford University - The Farm - Admission </p>

<p>College</a> Search - Duke University - Duke - Admission </p>

<p>College</a> Search - Princeton University - Admission </p>

<p>College</a> Search - Harvard College - Admission </p>

<p>College</a> Search - Yale University - Admission </p>

<p>What confuses predictions this year is the changed landscape of college admission this year, with Harvard and Princeton having no early round at all, which doubtless changed the early round application behavior of more than a few applicants, and the announcement of new financial aid policies, which will in some unknown way change the way admitted applicants decide among competing offers of admission. By February 2009 we should have a good sense of how the colleges that have already announced admission statistics compare with other colleges as to base acceptance rate for this year's group of applicants. </p>

<p>Of course xiggi, the OP of this thread, is fully aware of these issues, and urges parents to consult Common Data Set filings for each college to compare colleges. I hope all of us will remember to keep our April Fools Day skepticism as we read college press releases.</p>

<p>The most interesting figure that Dean J released for U.Va. was 29% acceptance for OOS applicants. I had searched for that stat last fall and several people on CC said it wasn't to be found.</p>

<p>Stanford class of 2012:</p>

<p>Stanford</a> offers admission to 2,400 students</p>

<p>25,298 applications (not broken out by SCEA and RD)
2,400 total admitted. 738 SCEA, 1662 RD</p>

<p>Not involved, but how small is their freshman class? Are they counting on 100% yield?</p>

<p>Stanford's current figure looks like they are counting on about 70 percent yield, which I think they got last year. I have NO prediction about what will happen to yields this year with the new situations at other colleges.</p>

<p>
[QUOTE]
The most interesting figure that Dean J released for U.Va. was 29% acceptance for OOS applicants. I had searched for that stat last fall and several people on CC said it wasn't to be found.

[/QUOTE]
You can find the VA and OOS offer rates going back to 1977 in the</a> historical data section of the Office of Institutional Assessment's website.</p>

<p>So sorry if it appeared that the data wasn't available.</p>

<p>Cool; thanks Dean J.</p>

<p>I think it will play out some colleges get a very low yield and with that they will start accepting more....with some kids applying to 15 schools and getting acceptances at 10 and only able to go to one, and seems, at least here on CC that many of those kids overlap with others kids, that things will shake out after schools see that its not just more kids applying, sure that is part of it, but when they talk about more "applications' do they account for more applications per kid in the statistic</p>

<p>if you have 10 kids who applied to 7 schools that would be 70 applications</p>

<p>but today if you have say 12 kids who apply to 10 schools that is 120 applications but only 2 more students</p>

<p>Except for ED, it is impossible to speculate on the number of unique applicants versus multiple applications. While everything points to a greater number of applications per student at the highly competitive schools, it is good to remember that the number of acceptances is pretty stable. One should not bank one great changes in yield ... schools have factored their expected yield pretty well and a greater number of applications should not create much havoc.</p>

<p>And, fwiw, one should also remember that most schools, especially the ones a tad below the highly competitive schools, are building HUGE reserves in the form of wait lists, with some schools exhibiting ridiculously large wait lists compared to their entire freshman class. </p>

<p>One reality is that for the schools at the apex of college "food chain" there are few reasons to reverse the downward slope in the admission numbers. I fully expect the applications at the Ivy League + Stanford and MIT to keep increasing, and probably by even larger margins than in the past decade. Until more spaces are made available by expansion of the freshmen classes, the admission numbers will keep inching to single digits.</p>

<p>Obviously, it will be playing out, but only because there are sufficient spaces in the 4,000+ colleges throughout the country. Once you move outside the schools that get most of the ink, the environment changes drastically.</p>

<p>Duke did not accept 3,814 in the RD round but 3,342.</p>

<p>
[quote]
From Duke</a> Offers Admission to 3,342 Applicants for Class of 2012 Following Record Number of Applications</p>

<p>Durham, NC -- Duke University this week offered admission in the Class of 2012 to 3,342 high school seniors from across the country and around the world.</p>

<p>The students were selected from a pool of 20,337 applicants, the largest in Duke’s history. The university seeks to enroll 1,657 first-year students this fall. In December, 472 students were admitted under Duke’s early decision program, bringing the total number of admitted students to 3,814. They were notified by mail and online.</p>

<p>This represents an 18.8 percent overall acceptance rate, a record low for the university.

[/quote]
</p>