This has all been immensely helpful! My daughter has solid application groundwork, including a 34 on the ACT and a 4.4 gpa. We’re considering various selective or highly-selective liberal arts colleges. She might apply to a dozen for regular admission. I know that’s more than generally suggested, and it would cost as much as $1000 of app fees. But maybe only three or four are close to slam dunks, and it seems worthwhile to maximize the range of choices around April 1, including the possibility of merit aid. A few colleges on our tentative list provide merit aid; we could consider expanding that portion of the list.
From a “worst case” standpoint, the full sticker price for four years is ours to pay, close to $300,000. In response to earlier suggestions, yes, postponing retirement is possible. We also could draw on retirement funds, without depleting them for three-plus decades . . . maybe (using the too-simple 4% withdrawal model if not something more conservative).
It’s helpful to confirm what I’ve somewhat suspected: no college is going to offer a pre-read on future years even if I supplied hypothetical numbers. I’ve concluded, as suggested, that the best I can do presently is to run the net price calculators myself, with various scenarios, then make decisions based on the worst-case assumption of little or no need-based aid and no merit aid.
I also can see, and the confirmation is quite helpful, that it may make sense to withdraw from retirement accounts in the same tax year that I’m still working. The tax hit (for non-Roth withdrawal) would be painful, and we would get zero need-based aid for the ensuing year, but in the “after-after” year, we can use the cash stash to pay all expenses (college + living expenses for my wife and me) and maybe get some modest need-based aid. As someone noted, it’s better to have money in savings (subject to approx. 5% EFC) than as income.
It’s a complex and moving-pieces judgment intersecting with other life decisions, and alas, no sure path to reducing the full sticker price of the $70,000+ schools. Many points to consider alongside my wife and daughter.