Reverse chance a senior before I just get rejected from all the schools I want to apply to.

Happykid is a grad student at UTK, so I am familiar with the area. Unless ASU is your “I am totally happy to study there and it is absolutely affordable” safety, then you need to take another good hard look at UTK and the other in-state places. Your rock-bottom safety has to be a place that you would be happy to attend.