<p>Quick question. Recently, I have been loosely observing quite a few chance threads on this forum. However, I have noticed a common trend in all of these threads. The kid who is giving out his or her stats is normally a great student (ie 4.0 and 33+ on ACT) with ECs that are, while not always "ivy caliber," are nothing short of excellent. Then, the post is usually followed by many posters who, for the most part, state that the student has "great chances" at Rice and that as long as he or she nails the essays their odds of admission are very favorable. I know this is kind of a hasty generalization, but normally this is what the response to these threads is. Regardless, Rice will only accept about 20 percent of the students who apply. So, are the bright kids posting threads on this forum normally in the 80+ percentile in the Rice application pool or are these chance threads really a poor indicator of admission outcomes?</p>
<p>Sorry if this post seems unfair or harsh but I am interested in what ppl think about these types of threads,</p>
<p>IMO, I think most of the people who are posting on CC are in the 80%+ group, but you get a pretty okay mix.</p>
<p>I think a good indicator in some of these chance threads is looking at the other schools they’re going to apply to. I saw one with Rice listed as a high reach along with JHU and others, while some people put them as a much lower choice after Ivies and MIT.</p>
<p>Take everything with a grain of salt, a lot of chance threads are just thinly disguised brag sheets.</p>
<p>It’s certainly a fair question. A very complicated and interesting one, also.</p>
<p>There is a certain… unique atmosphere to CollegeConfidential.
I would say that the individuals who take the time to discover CC, create a user acount, and post ‘chance me’ threads are often in that 80+ percentile, as we can see after all the “Official ED 2009” and “Official RD 2009” style threads. However, ‘chance me’ threads are often times just a way for people to assuage their fears and/or inflate their egos. (I’m not saying I’m not guilty of it!) Obviously, people who post with 4.0, 2400 SAT, 36 ACT and a ****load of ECs know they have a good chance - or should I say, as good a chance as any other high-achieving applicant. You rarely find mediocre- to low-achieving high schoolers posting on CC because it doesn’t really match up. It does happen, but not often, and that’s when it actually gets interesting (but in the end is still fairly pointless). Most people can go to a university’s admissions statistics on their website and judge from there how likely it is that they will get in. Still, it’s all a crapshoot in the end.</p>
<p>When CC says “you have a great chance!” everyone should take it worth a grain of salt, esp. for top schools like Rice. Most of the time, we don’t know what your essays are like, although you say “omg I write the best essays ever, THAT won’t be a problem.” We don’t know how your interview went (until you post about it to us after the fact). And we certainly don’t know what’s running through the admissions officer’s mind while reading your finished application.</p>
<p>All in all, chance threads on CC are usually pointless (unless the poster just wants that ego stroke) and just make less-qualified applicants feel more insecure after reading them. More helpful than ‘chance me’ threads would be threads asking about how a particular university looks at its applicants and/or how much weight they put on each area of the application.</p>
<p>I think the above poster is right on the ball. However, chance threads are a great opportunity for advice. It can help you learn what’s feasible to improve and what’s better left alone in order to invest that energy elsewhere. It can give you a glimpse into the admissions process if there are current or accepted students posted. It can give you a wake up call. I think if they are done in a right way, chance threads can be very beneficial. But that means being willing to accept or contemplate advice (many CC posters are not) and having people post longer responses than “yes” or “no”. Even then, I take everything with a grain of salt - usually knocking down the chances a notch or two.</p>
<p>I think something important to take into account is the applicant group, especially for kids at Rice. If you’re looking to apply to another school, you might be competing with students whose application is not as good as yours. At Rice, since it is not as well known and since it’s not in the Northeast (sorry… but that IS a popular destination for college), the applicant pool is probably overall more qualified. This means that all of the people, or maybe 80% of the people in the applicant pool, are probably statistically qualified. Even though I’m at or around the 50th or 75th percentile, I’ve learned from my chances thread that since the applicant pool is somewhat self-selecting, the subjective portions of my application will be given more weight.</p>
<p>I don’t like chance threads because they serve absolutely no purpose. If a student wants to go to a school, then he should apply regardless of what his “chances” are. If a student has already applied to a school, having us tell him his “chances” doesn’t change or help anything. I think that’s part of the reason for the optimistic tone in chances threads; people do not want to discourage students from applying.</p>
<p>I disagree NYSkins1. Firstly, kids who have low stats and not much chance of getting into good colleges could potentially lose a lot of money on schools that will never accept him/her and the situation could be exacerbated by the fact that these kids belong to families with low incomes. Secondly, I know for me, chance threads given me the confidence to apply to these schools and it feels nice to know that you at least have a shot. Thirdly, chance threads usually cause people to suggest other suitable colleges to apply to and are helpful when deciding on matches, safeties and reaches.</p>
<p>I couldn’t agree more. I have incredibly limited funds. Applying to six schools is going to cost me as much as $300, and that’s INCLUDING six application fee waivers. I don’t have the money to waste on schools where I don’t have a shot. If you have the money to apply to ten or twelve schools, that’s fine. But because I am so limited - I’m actually going to have to BORROW that $300 just for those six applications - I’m only choosing reaches that are reasonable.</p>
<p>Interesting question. I’ve never once responded to a chance thread because most of the time it’s obvious the person is more than qualified. I don’t think it’s an ego stroke thing (well, sometimes) but more of an insecurity thing. They want it bad and wonder whether they’ve overestimated themselves. On the rare occasion that someone is probably unqualified (I see this more on other forums) then I would never respond because nothing I say at that point is going to change the outcome and I don’t want to make them feel bad.</p>
<p>Having said all that I HAVE been tempted to post ds’s stats because I am nervous for him. Rice is his far-and-away no. 1 choice, and I wonder whether he’s set his sights too high. But I never would because, really, what good does it do? He’ll find out soon enough. And there are too many variables for people to judge one person accurately. URM – good; Texas – bad; varsity athlete – good; those B’s in math – bad. You can drive yourself crazy!! :)</p>
Rice will waive your application fees if you are low-income, and low-income kids are the ones who definitely benefit from applying to a lot of the 100%-meets-need schools like Rice! Rice likes income-diversity and kids who have overcome challenges to succeed, and Rice offers extremely good financial aid for low-income students. Low-income kids should ignore the chances threads and just APPLY since if they are accepted they will be able to afford an excellent education- at least that’s MHO! (BTW: We’ve also found Rice to offer good financial aid for middle-class and upper-middle class families, too - at least that’s our experience over the last 6 years; just got this years FA package and it continues to be spot-on our EFC and totally reasonable and affordable.)</p>
<p>I agree with NYSkins… if you cant afford the $70 or whatever, Rice will waive it for you. and if you can afford it, $70 is nothing in the grand scheme of college</p>
<p>and yes, if you have borderline stats, hardly anyone posts them here. people want to show off</p>
<p>I, too, agree with NYSkins and would argue against anyone taking seriously a response they get from a chances thread. Those answering you have no idea what your chances are, really. I certainly understand the desire not to waste money applying someplace where you have no chance at all of getting in, but you’ll get a much better idea of those chances by looking at the school’s admissions statistics than by asking someone here.</p>
<p>i guess the positive would be that - these are my stats, I have a xxx in SAT II <something>. while a higher score is always better, i guess people can figure out whether retaking is a good idea, advised or too much work</something></p>
<p>i guess it is for “help me improve my applications” or “let me boast about my stats” one or the other. the “chances” part is silly</p>
<p>True, but it costs $20 to send a transcript (at my school) and $9.50 to send SAT scores. I’m not even sure how much it costs to send ACT scores, but it’s probably another $9.50 or so. That really adds up. It’s easy for people to say that low-income students (like me) should apply to a lot of 100% need / no loans schools, but it just isn’t that easy. $20 x 8 schools plus $9.50 x 8 schools is already $236, which is an extra 40 hours at work on top of a 25 hour week (and hours are tough to come by these days). I’m not saying woe is me, I’m just saying it isn’t as easy as oh, you’re low-income, apply to all these schools so you can get a free ride! I wish it was, though. Getting into a 100% need / no loans school would be phenomenal, but I don’t have $500 lying around, and that’s that - it means I have to pick and choose very, very carefully, which is where chances come in. It’s also a time thing (40 hours of school + 25 hours of work + 10 hours of volunteering…) but that’s another whole story and everyone deals with that.</p>
<p>my school they attested everything with the seal and handed it to me. i posted it etc. myself</p>
<p>i would talk to the admin office or principal etc and explain that it wasnt possible if that were the case. sending scores is once again waived if u need it</p>
<p>I understand the concept of chances threads. Like every now and then someone who REALLY needs help posts.</p>
<p>99% of the time they are I have 2400 SAT etc etc <em>boast</em> ing threads</p>
<p>Who knows? After the first two transcripts/counselor recommendations, it costs $20 each. Absolutely ridiculous.</p>
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<p>How so? I know if I re-take a subject test I can get a waiver for sending scores, but only if I retake the Subject Tests. If there’s another way, trust me, I’d LOVE to know.</p>
<p>Also, the CSS/PROFILE is very expensive. I think I’ll qualify for a waiver, but if I don’t, it’s going to cost me $121. It’s something like $9 to fill it out and then $16 per sent report. Ouch. Most low-income students do not qualify for the CSS/PROFILE fee waiver, but I just might make the cut (hopefully…).</p>
<p>I feel like you (one) can inflate your (one’s, etc.) chances based on how well you make your chance threads… People who elaborate upon their extracurricular activities will elicit more positive responses regarding their chances. I agree that people generally shouldn’t use chance threads to determine whether they should apply to a school or not, but use it as an predictor for their chances (obviously…). </p>
<p>Also, I feel like it’s better to evaluate yourself within the context of your high school instead of putting yourself in a pool of CC kids. If your counselor has been working at your school for a while, then that’s who I would ask for chances since he/she has seen several cycles of admissions at your high school.</p>
But I never would because, really, what good does it do? He’ll find out soon enough. And there are too many variables for people to judge one person accurately. URM – good; Texas – bad; varsity athlete – good; those B’s in math – bad. You can drive yourself crazy!! :)</p>