https://www.davidson.edu/admission-and-financial-aid/financial-aid/scholarships
Here you can see merit scholarships at Davidson. Very few.
Financially affordable and high likelihood of admission are the two tenets of a safety. If either is missing, it’s is simply not a safety.
New College of Florida offers a $15k OOS scholarship, which makes tuition effectively $15k for OOS students. Something to consider.
Often the dilemma. Pay instate prices for big flagship that has plenty of name recognition and good reputation, or try to get a smaller school, LAC for same price or a bit more.
I agree that paying more than $15k over the state price is not s good idea. And, at that, you want a school that has a bit of name recognition. For such schools, and I do put Davidson in that category, to get sufficient merit money is going to be a tough go. Super lottery ticket even with very good stats. In fact, without such stats or very desirable hook, no chance.
I think a school like Gettysburg is a possibility to discount sufficiently to get to the $40k mark.