safety, match, reach, high reach

Parents Forum
41

<p>JHS:</p>

<p>I think there are "matches" for high performing students, regardless of the acceptance rates.</p>

<p>The rapidly declining acceptance rates are a function of students applying to many more colleges, largely driven by breathtaking increases in international applications and one-click on-line applications. These extra applications don't really change the underlying reality that much: the same students are still being accepted to the same colleges. Think of it as college admissions with a layer of dense fog created by extra indiscriminate applications rolling in.</p>

<p>The fog of the extra apps simply makes it more difficult to cut through and identity matches, especially when all we have to consider are simplistic measures like SAT scores, when class rank has always been a better indicator. If I were trying to identify "matches", my first stop would be the high school's admissions book to find out where students with my class rank have been accepted in recent years. If, for example, the 2nd ranked student at my school has consistently gone to Emory or Tufts and I'm the 2nd ranked student, it's not too far off the mark to consider Emory or Tufts a reasonable match.</p>

42

<p>I have seen some kids waitllisted/rejected from Emory and
Tufts who were accepted at more selective schools. Since neither have EA or rolling features, it would be an ugly surprise to find those schools are not good for back up if your top choices do not pan out.</p>

<p>I know a young lady who should have been a cinch for a number of schools that rejected her. Surprisingly a much more selective school accepted her. When there are so many talented kids for the few spots they all want, strange things happen. I know that my kids could not pretend to like a school or be enthusiastic when they were not, so interest and desire can play a role in visits. The adcoms see enough kids that they have a pretty good nose as to who really likes their school, and can make some admissions decisions accordingly. I know that when my son found his school choice, it was clear to every single person he saw on campus during that visit. He was accepted pretty much on the spot even though the time was not there for letters to go out. They can smell it, feel it.</p>

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<p>I still believe it is more important to look at the field of study within the institution, than the institution itself. The U of Idaho is clearly at safety for most students except in the music department which is very selective. Washington State U’s overall AR makes it a match/safety for most students except for the 20 or so direct admits to the Vet school or college of pharm. General admit to Syracuse may be a match but Newhouse would probably be a reach in most cases.</p>

44

<p>ilsa beler, I think Trinity is a match. I consider a match a school where a student has good chances so that, if he were to apply to 4 such schools, he would be likely to get into 2-3, possibly get into only 1 or all 4.</p>

45

<p>
[quote]
I know a young lady who should have been a cinch for a number of schools that rejected her.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>We all have those stories. In a vacuum, however, they aren't that instructive because we aren't privvy to the whole picture.</p>

<p>Example: a friend of my Ds was very active doing interviews for the admissions office on campus. Interviewed one applicant who had all the bells and whistles -- class rank, SAT scores, yadda yadda. I'm sure everyone who knew this applicant back home thought she was a sure-bet. </p>

<p>Only one teensy little problem: lord knows why, but during the interview, the applicant confessed that she and her friends in high school liked to torment the gay kids. Ooops. The interviewer was gay, at a school where being accepting of a gay students is a part of the most fundamental culture of the school. The "strong" applicant torpedoed herself and had ZERO chance of admission. My cat would have better odds after than interview and my cat did not do well at all on the SATs.</p>

<p>Point being... it is really hard to comment on whether a particular result is surprising without being privvy to the entire application.</p>

46

<p>Re: Emory and Tufts.
These are schools without need-blind admissions, from what I can tell from their websites. Only 37% (Emory) and 35% (Tufts) of students receive need based grants.
No surprise at all that students would be admitted to more selective schools and be rejected or wait listed at the two.
Just another issue in figuring out reach, match, safety.
And then of course there is "Tufts Syndrome".
Gets complicated, doesn't it?</p>

47

<p>Yes, it does get complicated. And that's just the stuff you can see. As interesteddad brought up, if your kid interviews or sits in a class and interacts with those in a college, you may not know what was said and in what context. I saw one kid at an information session collar an adcom and was very inappropriate. Who knows what impact that would have on his app? Also some kids just rub some people the wrong way, and everyone has bad days. Now that there are so many holistic factors in the mix, it is difficult to come up with a safety school. That's why I like to have one in the pocket early in the game. It provides peace of mind. A bird in hand is worth MANY in the bush.</p>

48

<p>Interesteddad: I don't necessarily disagree with you, but I recommend caution. </p>

<p>I think of a "match" as a college where a particular applicant has something like a 40%-75% chance of admission (higher would make it a safety, lower a reach). Yes, by looking at a particular school's history, one may be able to decide that, notwithstanding the fact that a particular college generally has a low acceptance rate, it accepts most or all of the students from THIS high school with THIS profile. That's why I said high performing students "often" don't have matches, not "never".</p>

<p>I also note that inherent in the "match" concept is a real possibility that an applicant will be rejected -- otherwise there would be no such thing as a "safety". None of us would be happy playing Russian roulette with a 40-75% chance of success. So the fact that I might know one, or ten, students with a particular general profile who got rejected by Such & Such University doesn't automatically mean it wasn't a match for them or wouldn't be a match for a student like them.</p>

<p>That said, recent experience among the kids I know well suggests that data that is only a few years old is not necessarily reliable. At my kids' high school, very strong students were often told that they could think of X University, a highly selective college, as their safety, and indeed many had application lists that only made sense on that premise. For the past 20+ years, X University had rarely accepted fewer than 25 students a year from the school, and often considerably more than that; the high school is without doubt X University's #1 or #2 feeder historically. Until last year, it was unheard-of for X University not to accept a student ranked in the top 2-3% of the school's class (i.e., top 10-15 kids). No longer. Last year there were a couple, and this year I think well more than a couple. So X University may still be a "match" for those kids, but it sure ain't no safety. And if I had a kid in the class of 2009, I'm not sure how comfortable I would be with that "match" status if my kid were applying RD.</p>

49

<p>In addition to identifying a safety or two, it's important to "work" those applications early and hard. The risk is that safety schools will see no evidence of interest and waitlist an extremely qualified applicant. You can avoid that trap by showing early, strong interest in a school -- even if it's the school's merit discount offers.</p>

50

<p>JHS:</p>

<p>I should be clear that I'm a big believer in building a college list that consists almost exclusively of "match" schools where the student has a high probability of acceptance plus -- of course -- the appropriate safeties.</p>

<p>I'm not looking at matches as "fall backs", I'm looking at well-targeted match schools as the bulk of the college list.</p>

<p>To me, there's little point in putting a reach on the list unless you can identify a specific reason the reach school might mail an acceptance letter. To me, a well-crafted college list should produce mostly acceptances -- allowing for the fact that it's an imprecise science. Not a big fan of shotgunning wing 'n a prayer applications on the hopes that some adcom makes a mistake and accepts you.</p>

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<p>Well, making it a bit more complicated...</p>

<p>Keep in mind two things: (1) how many students the college took in the early round, if you are applying in the regular round; (2) how typical your "soft" factors are at that school. </p>

<p>In other words, if you are a white middle class kid with two college educated parents and your strongest EC is music, you probably can't consider Oberlin a safety in the regular round, because Oberlin attracts a LOT of kids interested in music and will have accepted a lot of musicians in the early round. If your kid wants to major in creative writing and is a white female, Sarah Lawrence may be a reach in the regular round no matter how great your D's stats. If you have a middle class white D with two college educated parents, who is an actress, Vassar regular round may be a reach. </p>

<p>I've written a gazillion times that college admissions is a lot like casting a musical. No college just accepts the best and/or most deserving students. No director is going to cast the 20 most talented singers/dancers/actors. There are so many male parts and so many female parts. Reality is that the female sopranos are competing against each other for roles, not with the males who sing tenor. If you ONLY look at the overall admissions stats, you may overestimate your kid's chances of being admitted. You need to get a rough idea of how many kids with interests similar to your kid's are in the applicant pool. And if your kid is applying regular round to a school with ED I and II and is a typical applicant, realize that a thin envelope is likely. And if you need aid money and the school is NOT need blind and your kid is a "typical" applicant applying in the regular round, realize that a thick envelope is unlikely. </p>

<p>I don't know what percentage of its class Trinity College accepts ED, but I'd find that out before I'd hazard a guess as to whether its a match or reach for the OP's son if he is applying in the regular round.</p>

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<p>
[quote]
No director is going to cast the 20 most talented singers/dancers/actors. There are so many male parts and so many female parts. Reality is that the female sopranos are competing against each other for roles, not with the males who sing tenor.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Thank-you. That concept is fundamental to even beginning to understand admissions odds.</p>

<p>The idea of competing against others in a particular stack of applications becomes even more important as you move up the selectivity ladder.</p>

<p>Understanding this concept is also the key to helping your kid put together a strong application by focusing on something that will help to stand out in a stack of applications. It doesn't have to be national awards. Just about anything can be effectively highlighted if the EC lists, essays, and recommendations all tell the same story.</p>

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<p>jonri said: "You need to get a rough idea of how many kids with interests similar to your kid are in the applicant pool." How would one go about doing this? I have no idea.</p>

<p>Trinity admitted 2,037 kids (34.2% of the applicant pool) - 250 of them ED (no ED II round apparently) according to the CDS of '07-'08. Is this a lot? I have no idea.</p>

<p>I thought I already knew quite a bit from reading this forum--apparently not as much as I imagined.</p>

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<p>And another question--should I be looking at "admitted student" numbers or "enrolled student" numbers when calculating where he falls in the SAT/ACT spectrum? Of course, the "admitted student" numbers are quite a bit higher. I have succeeded in giving myself a headache. Maybe it's worth hiring a private counselor. This is nuts.</p>

55

<p>OP, forget about finding any logic for college admission. If your kid is interested in a school, apply.</p>

<p>We will be using the endowment per student figure as a guide for DS. It is like buying lottory tickets.</p>

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<p>As the mother of a rising senior, and fairly new to CC, thank you to all for your valuable advice. I, too, am overwhelmed. I even put together a spreadsheet for our D with her 11 schools (this week's list, LOL) and a plan for ED, EDII, EA, and regular. It took a few hours! But I am beginning to realize there is a method here and ways to increase your chances of entry. There are also a few schools with ED that is NOT binding. I am grappling with the fact that her #1 school by FAR is her reach school. It is a very popular small LAC with a low acceptance rate. I hate for her to take her "best shot" with an ED there, because her second choice, I believe, would be more likely to admit her ED (not as hard to get in there). She can't do both. She wants the reach. Badly. Wants to apply this summer. By the way, I have figured out all the acroynyms EXCEPT "OP". What is an "OP???</p>

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<p>OP is Opening Post or Opening Poster, refering to the first post in the thread or the person who started the thread.</p>

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<p>Why is it "nuts"? It's not rocket science. You've got plenty of time. You can hire a private counselor--it might help. On the flip side, your S might do what one young man I interviewed did when I asked him the "Why X college?" question. He told the truth--because the college counselor picked out by his parents chose the colleges he would apply to. That didn't help. </p>

<p>Which SATs you look at depend upon the purpose you are looking at them for. At least, that's what I think--though I'm not a professional. </p>

<p>I did find the answers to some of your questions in about 3 minutes using google, so it's really not that hard. OKay, 250 kids get in early, out of 575 total. That means 40 to 45% of the class gets in early. Usually, at this level of college--maybe Trinity releases actual data; you can look yourself--the median SATs of the early pool are a bit lower than in the overall class, due to athletic admits and legacies. If not, they are almost certainly a bit lower than the median SATs of unhooked white or Asian kids with two college-educated parents from suburbs in New England admitted in the regular round will be, so if your son is applying in the regular round, then use the percentiles for admitted students to gage his chances. The odds are high that the median SAT of white unhooked students admitted in the regular round will be ROUGHLY equal to the 75th percentile for all admitted students. So, WITHOUT considering anything else, if your S is a middle class white or Asian kid from New England planning to apply in the regular round, I'd guess that he has to have SATs close to the 75th percentile for admitted students to be able to consider Trinity a "match" based on stats ALONE. (That's going to be a little pessimistic because usually I only apply these "rules" to colleges with admissions rates below 30%, but Trinity is close to that. )</p>

<p>Now find out the other things--which are the most common majors, the most popular ECs. You'll find most of this info on its website and in standard college guides. What percentage of males? It looks like 50%--which surprises me--so his sex may not be as big a help as it would be at some LACs, where a 60% female student body is common. </p>

<p>Is Trinity need blind? I haven't a clue--but that too will be on its website. Do you need financial aid? If so, realize that if you are applying regular round and there's nothing that makes him stand out, that too will diminish his chances. The larger the fin aid package you need, the more it will affect his chances. It may be unfair, but given a choice between two kids with nearly identical records, a school which is NOT need blind is going to take the kid who doesn't need money or at least needs less money than a free ride. (After all, taking 3 kids who need one-third discounts rather than one who needs a free ride will make the college look better by increasing the percentage of students on fin aid.) </p>

<p>If you can afford to pay full freight and your S really likes Trinity, then find out the percentage of students who are admitted out of those who apply early. Consider having him apply early but ONLY if you do not need to bargain about fin aid and ONLY if he is really sure he will be happy at Trinity. </p>

<p>But most importantly, as others have said, put together a list of schools with varying odds. What is it that he likes about Trinity? Are there schools that have that same quality which are less selective--or which have fewer males or fewer new Englanders or fewer kids with the same academic interests?</p>

<p>This shouldn't be all about you. Get your kid involved. The better he can articulate the reasons he is interested in S college, the better the essays he writes, the better the interview (I note that Trinity seems to count interviews), the better his odds. Just let him keep in the back of his mind that getting in or not getting in is all about building a class and not about his self-worth.</p>

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<p>Thanks, jonri. I did tell you what percentage of ED kids were admitted. My question was is this the average percentage. I asked this because you raised it as being an important issue in your previous post.</p>

<p>I have yet to read any publication that states what the "most popular" ecs are at each institution. I know Oberlin is known for music, I know Penn State is known for football, etc. That's about it. If anyone has seen a listing of "most popular ecs," I would love to see it. I know popular majors are listed, that is why he is interested in Trinity (and after a visit last fall when we happened to be in the area).</p>

<p>I doubt I am alone as a parent of a junior attempting to put together a <em>preliminary</em>list of schools for my son to <em>visit</em> in a few weeks--when school is out. Right at the present time, he is dealing with a final AP Lang and Comp research paper due in a few days, he just finished the last of his three AP tests last week, and he took the May 3 SAT's--taking them again in June along with the ACT. Golly, I haven't had the heart to make him sit in front of a computer looking at college websites. Add to that his rather serious medical condition for which he is scheduled for further blood tests in June along with a CT venogram (already had the MRI in late April) and here you have what you seem to think is a helicopter parent. </p>

<p>Thank you for your information; I will be careful not to express frustration in the future.</p>

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<p>Where did that come from? I was sincerely trying to help. I didn't call you a helicopter parent. In fact, I didn't even THINK of you as a helicopter parent. I just made the point--which I believe--that the kids who get engaged in the process have better outcomes. </p>

<p>And if you haven't yet read any publication that states the most popular ECs, then you haven't yet looked at what I believe to be the single most popular college guide and/or it's related site...which CC rules prohibit me from posting. </p>

<p>But yes, based on your response, I'll make sure I don't answer any of your questions in the future. I didn't intend to upset you...and I'm genuinely surprised that I did. So, I'll play it safe and refrain from answering any of your posts in the future.</p>