<p>Tom,The point of demarcation between safety and match is not clear cut black and white. It is hazy and grey and subject to a good deal of overlap, luck and it depends qualifications. To me, as jmmom said, a true safety is a school that allows you to sleep at night between December and April. Your individual comfort level is partly statistical, partly subjective, partly strategic and highly personal.</p>
<p>For strategic advantage, your daughter could, for example, consider a school with rolling admissions, EA or automatic in-state acceptance as her safety. She could lean heavily on her special talents, geographic advantage, gender balance to move her application into the admit pile. These are not guaranteed bonus points, but as her research intensifies you and she will get a feel for how nuances of advantage will affect her short list. For us, the final balance of reach/match/safety was less quantitative and more intuitive. </p>
<p>Over the next two years as you and your daughter circle around her perfect fit school you will identify, research and ultimately discard a number of schools, in all levels of selectivity. Her list will be refined and refined again. Its great that you are starting early and that you are attempting to quantify and analyze. You should accept, however, that you may not be 100% accurate in labeling each schools selectivity although you WILL get a good sense of comparison.</p>
<p>Right now, Id suggest that you focus on the type of school that appeals to your daughter size, gender, environment, personality. After shes identified what she likes shell be able to find a range of selectivity in that general category.</p>